Tag Archive: newsletter

Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Will the GBP/CHF rate drop below 1.30?

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

There is a very strong likelihood that the pound to Swiss franc exchange rate might slip should Theresa May find herself in trickier waters ahead as she attempts to negotiate an extension on the Brexit deadline this week. Pound to Swiss franc exchange rates could easily slip below 1.30, particularly since the Franc is a safe haven currency that can strengthen in times of economic uncertainty.

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Foreign Investors Own 60 percent of Swiss Corporations

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

Global financial institutions are increasingly dominating the shareholders of major Swiss companies, according to the Sunday editionexternal link of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The German-language newspaper points to Swiss banking giant Credit Swiss as a prime example of a financial institution where traditional shareholder democracy is eroding fast.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review: April 2019

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

Economic Growth & Investment
The economic data reported over the last month managed to confirm both that the economy is slowing and that there seems little reason to fear recession at this point. The slowdown is mostly a manufacturing affair – and some of that is actually a fracking slowdown – but consumption has also slowed.

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FX Daily, April 8: Brexit, the EU-China, and the Abandonment of the Open Door

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA--NAFTA2.0--for which approval remains elusive.  It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US Congress.  Mexico is due to pass legislation this week that may meet demands by the some in the US and Canada for stronger labor protections.

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FX Weekly Preview: Important Steps Away from the Abyss

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

It seems to be well appreciated among by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis. It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could trigger a financial crisis. In practice, it seems like it has worked the other way around. The financial crisis triggered the Great Recession.

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Income inequality declines in Switzerland

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

In 2016, before the effects of taxes and welfare, the highest earning 20% of Swiss households made on average 40.8 times what an average household in the bottom 20 percent made, an inequality measure known as the S80/S20. However, after taxes and welfare, including low income support, health insurance subsidies, pensions and disability benefits, the same income ratio fell to 4.4.

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China PMIs jump in March

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

China Official and Caixin Manufacturing PMI, 2011-2019
Industrial gauges rebound on seansonality as well as policy easing.Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0.

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Swiss regulator fires warning over buy-to-let property lending

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

The Swiss financial regulator has warned banks that rules on mortgage lending may be further tightened if they fail to control their appetite for dishing out real estate credit. Loans tipped the one trillion franc mark in 2017 and continue to swell, particularly in the buy-to-let market.

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Switzerland continues to lure foreign companies

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

Switzerland attracted 282 foreign firms to set up shop in the alpine state, creating 899 jobs last year, according to cantonal economic chiefs. That’s an increase of 37 companies from 2017. Switzerland is in the throes of revamping its corporate tax system to keep it line with the competition rules of the European Union and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

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External Demand, Global Means Global

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

Germany Factory Orders, SA 2014-2019
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in December after feuding with the federal government over his perceived hawkish stance.

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Raiffeisen Switzerland bank to cut 200 jobs

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Switzerland’s third-largest bank says it will cut up to 200 jobs to save CHF100 million ($100 million) this year. Raiffeisen is reorganising and undertaking a cost-cutting programme. This follows a recent fraud allegation scandal involving its former chief executive.

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Steep drop in thefts in Switzerland

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Comparing 2018 to 2012, thefts in Switzerland fell by nearly half, according to the Federal Statistical Office. In 2012, there were a record 219,000 thefts recorded in Switzerland. By 2018, the figure had fallen to 112,000, a drop of 49%.

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The Japanification of the World

2019-04-06

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2019-04-06

Japan Government interest payments % of revenue, 1972-2014
Zombification / Japanification is not success; it is only the last desperate defense of a failing, brittle status quo by doing more of what's failed. A recent theme in the financial media is the Japanification of Europe. Japanification refers to a set of economic and financial conditions that have come to characterize Japan's economy over the past 28 years: persistent stagnation and deflation, a low-growth and low-inflation economy, very loose...

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FX Daily, April 05: Trade Talk and German Industrial Output Lifts Sentiment

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

Overview:  Comments by Chinese President Xi, recognizing substantial progress in trade, helped boost sentiment after the US-China negotiators failed to set a date for the meeting between the two presidents.  Although we have argued that the German economy may be past the worst, the sharp drop in factory orders spooked investors.

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Are the Rise of Social Media and the Decline of Social Mobility Related?

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

Time Spent with Digital Media, 2008-2015
Social media offers hope of achieving higher online social status without having to succeed financially in a winner-take-most economy. I've often addressed the decline of social mobility and the addictive nature of social media, and recently I've entertained the crazy notion that the two dynamics are related. Why Is Social Media So Toxic?

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Swiss likely to vote on capital tax reform plan

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

The leftwing Young Socialist group has handed in the necessary signatures to force a nationwide vote on its proposal to increase tax on capital revenue in Switzerland. The initiative intends to tax dividends and interest on wealth by a factor of 1.5 compared with regular income tax.

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Oil prices supported by OPEC+ cuts…before market risks being flooded again

2019-04-05

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2019-04-05

World Oil Demand, 2019-2024
Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics.After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018.

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FX Daily, April 04: Limited Price Action Does not Do Justice to Macro Developments

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued despite several macro developments.  The US and China may announce as early as today when the two presidents will meet to ostensibly sign a trade deal, while House of Commons effort to block a no-deal exit goes to the House of Lords today.  India cut interest rates by 25 bp, the second consecutive cut. 

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Q&A on European Parliament elections

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

European Institutions
European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. 

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Typisch Mensch: Man überschätzt sich

2019-04-04

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Wenn allzu menschliche Eigenschaften das Verhalten an den Finanzmärkten prägen: Der Overconfidence Bias

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