Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, May 02: Dollar Consolidates Fed-Inspired Recovery

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Overview:  The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's post-Fed rally, and this is giving it a slightly heavier tone today.   Equities are mostly lower and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which if sustained would be the largest decline in three weeks.  The S&P 500 posted a potential key reversal yesterday by setting new record highs and then closing below the previous session's low.

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Claudia Aebersold Szalay to become Head of Media Relations at the SNB

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Claudia Aebersold Szalay will assume the role of Head of Media Relations at the Swiss National Bank on 1 June, replacing Walter Meier who will be leaving the bank having reached retirement age. Ms Aebersold Szalay was previously an economics and business editor at the NZZ newspaper for eleven years.

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Swiss Retail Sales, March 2019: -0.5 percent Nominal and -0.7 percent Real

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, March 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.5% in nominal terms in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Lawyer says that Volkswagen case stalling in Switzerland 

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

The lawyer representing about 500 people in Switzerland who have filed a complaint against German carmaker Volkswagen and importer AMAG says the Swiss attorney general is dragging his feet in the so-called ‘Dieselgate’ case. Geneva lawyer Jacques Roulet formally wrote a letter to the Swiss justice minister, Karin Keller-Sutter, complaining about the alleged delays “in a case of national importance,” according to news agency Keystone-SDA.

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The Spreads Blow Out, Update 1 May

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Spot Price Bid-Offer Spread, 2017-2019
The bid-ask spread of both (spot) gold and silver has blown out. Both, on March 1. In gold, the spread had been humming along around 13 cents—gold is the most marketable commodity, and this is the proof, a bid-ask spread around 1bps—until… *BAM!* It explodes to around 35 cents, or two and half times as wide.

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What Tokyo Eurodollar Redistribution Really Means For ‘Green Shoots’

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

TIC - US Banking Data
Last April, monetary officials in Japan were publicly contemplating ending asset purchases under QQE. This April, they are more quietly wondering what other financial assets they might have to buy just to keep it all going a little longer. I’d suggest something like the clouds passing over the islands or the ocean water surrounding them. Nobody would notice either way and it would be equally as effective.

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FX Daily, May 01: No Help on May Day, which is also Fed Day

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

The May Day holiday has shut most markets in Asia and Europe, making for subdued market action. Equity markets that are open, like Australia and the UK, advanced and US shares are trading higher helped by Apple's upbeat forecasts and sales that beat expectations.

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Peripheral bonds after the Spanish election

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Spanish and Italian Government Budget Balances, 2006-2019
We remain underweight peripheral euro area bonds in general due to continued political uncertainty, which will feed volatility.On April 28, Spain held its third general election in less than four years. As was expected, the centre-left Socialists (PSOE) emerged the largest party, but it does not have an absolute majority, so negotiations with other parties will be needed.

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Swiss president strengthens economic ties with China

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Swiss President Ueli Maurer has been received by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, for a state visit at the end of a week-long visit to China. The talks on Monday focused on strengthening relations, notably on economic and finance matters, according to a government statement.

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The Erosion of Everyday Life

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Wages aren't keeping up
Working hard and doing what you're told is no longer yielding the promised American Dream of security, agency and liberty. Volume One of Fernand Braudel's oft-recommended (by me) trilogy Civilization & Capitalism, 15th to 18th Century is titled The Structures of Everyday Life. The book describes how life slowly became better and freer as the roots of modern capitalism and liberty spread in western Europe, slowly destabilizing and obsoleting the...

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FX Daily, April 30: Dollar Pares more Gains as EMU GDP Surprise

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Overview: The S&P 500 set a new record high and close yesterday, but the lift to global markets was not strong enough to overcome the disappointing Chinese PMI.  Although Chinese equities traded higher on ideas that the news will spur additional stimulative measures, other Asian markets were mixed. 

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Pound to Swiss franc forecast – Brexit impasse means a fragile pound

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Brexit Limbo. At present Theresa May is in talks with Jeremy Corbyn in order to try and come up with a mutually acceptable deal to put to Brussels. The problem is May can’t even get a deal that is acceptable within her own party let alone Labour as well. Her deal has been rejected three times and Brussels are stone walling us on the Irish border.

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Swiss wage index 2018: Nominal wage increase of 0.5 percent in 2018, real wages decrease by -0.4 percent

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2018
30.04.2019 - The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.5% on average in 2018 compared with 2017. It settled at 101.6 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.9%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.4% (100.5 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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More asylum seekers find work in Switzerland

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Over one-third of all asylum seekers and refugees in Switzerland are currently employed, according to State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) figures. But most of the jobs are precarious and the vast majority continue to receive state benefits. In one year, the employment rate for asylum seekers in Switzerland rose from 27% in March 2018 to 32% today, according to a report by the Ostschweiz and Zentralschweiz am Sonntag newspapers that cite recent...

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Cool Video: Q1 US GDP Optics may Mark Near-Term Peak in Divergence Theme

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua to talk about US GDP with David Riley from BlueBay Asset Management. Here is a link to a 2.5-minute clip. The initial estimate of Q1 US growth was well more than nearly anyone expected. The details were underwhelming as the consumption was halved and the GDP deflator was halved. Final private domestic sales, which strips away inventories, trade, and government spending rose 1.3%, the least more than five years.

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Is Keith Weiner an Iconoclast? Report 28 Apr

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Gold and Silver Price
We have a postscript to our ongoing discussion of inflation. A reader pointed out that Levis 501 jeans are $39.19 on Amazon (in Keith’s size—Amazon advertises prices as low as $16.31, which we assume is for either a very small size that uses less fabric, or an odd size that isn’t selling). Think of the enormity of this. The jeans were $50 in 1983. After 36 years of relentless inflation (or hot air about inflation), the price is down to $39.31. Down...

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There Are Two Little Problems with “Taxing the Rich” to Pay for “Free Everything”

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Federal government total expenditures, 1960-2010
No super-wealthy individual or household is going to pay billions in additional taxes when $10 to $20 million will purchase political adjustments. The 2020 election cycle has begun, and a popular campaign promise is "free everything" paid for by new taxes on the super-wealthy. Who doesn't like free stuff? Who will vote for whomever offers them free stuff? No wonder it's a popular campaign promise.

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FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap.  However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday.  The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone. 

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Switzerland slides one place in 2019 press freedom ranking

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

In 2019, Switzerland lost one place slipping from 5th to 6th place out of 180, according to the latest world ranking of press freedom by the organisation Reporters Without Borders. The change was largely driven by the stronger performance of Denmark, which moved up into 5th place.

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Globally Synchronized…

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

WTO Global Trade, 2007-2019
The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death.

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