Tag Archive: newsletter

The Global Airline Industry Is in Even Worse Shape Than You Think

2020-05-10

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2020-05-10

Number of commercial flights tracked by Flightradar24
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has reached all productive sectors. The massive spread of the virus and social distancing measures have led to a dramatic decrease in economic activity. The aviation industry, vital for tourism and business, has been hit hard. Investors and analysts state that this crisis could be worse than the one that followed the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the one after 9/11.

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Coronavirus: new rules for Switzerland’s restaurants

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

Restaurants in Switzerland will be able to reopen on Monday 11 May 2020. But they’ll need to follow strict rules that were published this week. The seven pages of detailed restaurant rules will make dining in the time of Covid-19 quite different to what we’re accustomed to.

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Swiss authorities resort to use of spyware for the first time

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

The annual report on Swiss surveillance operations in 2019 mentions the use of state-controlled monitoring software, known as GovWare, for the first time since it was authorised in 2018. The criminal prosecution authorities and the Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) reported the use of spyware for the first time with 12 such completed interventions before the end of 2019.

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Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ Weimar

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

There are two parts behind the inflation mongering. The first, noted yesterday, is the Fed’s balance sheet, particularly its supposedly monetary remainder called bank reserves. The central bank is busy doing something, a whole bunch of something, therefore how can it possibly turn out to be anything other than inflationary?The answer: the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, not really.

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Police Are Complicit in Politicians’ Disregard for the Rule of Law

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

People of a certain age might remember the old John Birch Society slogan "Support your local police!" The idea here is that your local policeman is a liberty-loving buddy of yours who would only ever support just laws and constitutional mandates. Only those bad guys in the FBI or BATF would ever consider violating your rights.

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Some Insightful Entrepreneurs Planned for a Pandemic

2020-05-09

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2020-05-09

Listen to the Audio ​Mises Wire version of this article. Does a pandemic trump entrepreneurial foresight? Many in business will say yes, “nobody saw this coming.” Lack of customer demand and government lockdowns are “no fault of their own.” But Penny Chutima, co-owner of the Lotus of Siam restaurant, did see it coming. Chutima and her mother, Saipin, have operated the off-Strip Las Vegas staple for years.

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FX Daily, May 8: Jobs and Negative Fed Funds Futures

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

Overview: The S&P 500 closed near its session lows for the third day running yesterday but failed to deter the bulls in Asia-Pacific, where most markets rose by more than 1%.  Taiwan, Korea, and Australia lagged a bit though closed higher. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm, and the modest gains (~0.5%) would be enough to ensure a higher weekly close if it can be maintained. 

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Swiss companies free to pay dividends despite bailouts

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

Swiss companies that receive state bailouts during the coronavirus pandemic will still be allowed to pay dividends to shareholders. A divided parliament eventually rejected calls to ban the billions that are expected to be paid out by firms this year.

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Dollar Mixed as Doves Fly

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

Measures of cross-market implied volatility have been stable for a few weeks now. Weekly jobless claims are expected at 3 mln; reports suggest House Democrats are pushing ahead with a possible vote next week on another relief package. Canada reports April Ivey PMI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady; Brazil COPOM delivered a dovish surprise last night.

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We All Know Who’s On First, But What’s On Second?

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

It wasn’t entirely unexpected, though when it was announced it was still quite a lot to take in. On September 1, 2005, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the nation’s personal savings rate had turned negative during the month of July. The press release announcing the number, in trying to explain the result was reduced instead to a tautology, “The negative personal saving reflects personal outlays that exceed disposable personal...

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Be Thankful for Those Who “Only Do It for the Money”

2020-05-08

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2020-05-08

At least since I first read George Orwell’s Politics and the English Language, I have been a student of the use of weasel words. I have joined what he called the “struggle against the abuse of language,” because “Political language…is designed to make lies sound truthful…and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”

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FX Daily, May 7: China Reports an Unexpected Jump in Exports, While Norway Surprises with a Rate Cut

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

Overview: There is a sense of indecision in the air today.  There have been several developments, but investors seem mostly reluctant to extend positions. China reported a surge in exports in April and an increase in the value of reserves.  Australia reported a rise in exports in March.  The Bank of England left policy steady, but clearly signaled it was prepared to boost its asset purchases. 

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SNB’s swollen balance-sheet poses risk to ‘credibility’

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

When the Swiss National Bank (SNB) followed last year’s $50 billion (CHF48.6 billion) profit with a record $39 billion first-quarter loss, it was a stark illustration of the volatility created by a decade of unconventional monetary policy.

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What does business look like in a post-lockdown world?

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

"Our analysis of what the biggest global companies in Switzerland are up to. This week: the new normal for business, luxury watches, and biotech dilemmas." Switzerland is easing up on the lockdown but what the new normal looks like for big companies is still a work in progress.

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Cool Video: TD Ameritrade-Stocks, the Dollar and the Trap Laid by the German Court

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

Here is a nine-minute clip of a chat I had with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade. Ben captures futures traders' energy and breadth of vision.  Often in institutional settings, one develops a specialization, but in my experience, futures traders are more likely to look across the markets and asset classes.  It is one of the lasting lessons learned early in my career on the floor of the CME. 

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Negative News from Europe Helps Dollar Build on Gains

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

UK has been confirmed to have the highest death toll in Europe the dollar is getting more traction. Reports suggest Congress is resisting President Trump’s call for a payroll tax cut; ADP private sector jobs data is expected to come in at -21 mln. Brazil is expected to cut rates 50 bp; Fitch cut its outlook on Brazil to negative; Chile is expected to keep rates steady.

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Where the Rubber Meets the Road

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

Longtime correspondent Paul B. suggested I re-publish three essays that have renewed relevance. This is the second essay, from July 2008. Thank you, Paul, for the suggestion. I received this timely inquiry from astute reader Paul B.: I'm interested in # 1, while you seem to take into account 300 million people in your writings--would you comment on rubber-meets-the-road impacts and proactive actions we can take to help shield ourselves (and our...

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Money Creation – Not Low Interest Rates – Is Behind the Boom-Bust Cycle

2020-05-07

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2020-05-07

Effective Federal Funds Rate/M2 Money Stock
In a recent article entitled “Where Are All the Austrian Scholars' Yachts?” John Tamny has criticized Austrian economists, and Mark Thornton in particular, for their skepticism regarding the relatively “ebullient stock market” in the midst of the pandemic. Mark Thornton responded to Tamny’s main argument in an earlier post. In this post, I will address two serious errors that underlie Tamny’s argument. 

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FX Daily, May 6: The Euro is Knocked Back Further

2020-05-06

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2020-05-06

Overview:  The late sell-off in US stocks yesterday has not prevented gains in Asia and Europe.   Most of the equity markets, including the re-opening of China, gain more than 1%.  Australia was a notable exception, falling about 0.4%, and Taiwan was virtually flat.  European bourses opened higher but made little headway before some profit-taking set in, while US shares are trading higher. 

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Students’ finances affected by coronavirus lockdown 

2020-05-06

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2020-05-06

Most Swiss students rely on part-time jobs during their studies, but the shutting of restaurants, bars, cinemas and gyms during the coronavirus pandemic has led to many of them losing a source of income. Around three quarters of students have a part-time job during their studies, with around half of them working on average two days a week, according to the Federal Statistical Office’s last figures.

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