Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss railways see more demand for train trips abroad

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

Travellers in Switzerland are increasingly taking to the rails for trips abroad, with the Swiss Federal Railways reporting a 10% increase in demand for international journeys and 25% more demand for trips by night train. According to a report in the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper, demand for night train journeys especially increased on stretches between Switzerland and the German cities of Berlin and Hamburg, while overall demand for international trips...

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead Excluding Brexit

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

I feel a bit like the proverbial guy that asks, "Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" in trying to discuss the week ahead without knowing the results of the UK Parliament's decision on the new deal negotiated between Prime Minister Johnson and the EU.   I will write a separate note about Brexit before the Asian open. However, there are several other developments next week that will help shape the investment climate.

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What We’ve Lost

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

This is only a partial list of what we've lost to globalism, cheap credit and the Tyranny of Price which generates the Landfill Economy. A documentary on the decline of small farms and the rural economy in France highlights what we've lost in the decades-long rush to globalize and financialize everything on the planet-- what we call Neoliberalism, the ideology of turning everything into a global market controlled by The Tyranny of Price and cheap...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

We are beginning to become more constructive on EM.  The main trigger for some optimism is the shifting US-China dynamic. In our view, the partial trade deal reveals weakness on the part of the US.  Reports suggest China will begin pushing for all existing tariffs to be dropped as part of Phase 2, which would be very positive for EM.  That is still likely months away but this shifting dynamic bears watching. 

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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

Planning on Your Behalf. Watch out! At this very moment, professional economists of all stripes are making plans on your behalf. They are dreaming and scheming new and innovative ways to spend your money long before you have earned it. While you are busy at the gristmill, grinding away for clients and customers, claims are being laid upon your life.

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Technology winning battle against banknote forgers

2019-10-20

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2019-10-20

Swiss banknotes are far more resistant to counterfeiters than in previous years, dramatically reducing the number of fake copies, say federal police. By contrast, far more counterfeit coins were seized last year, probably as a result of better detection methods. In 2018, a record low of 1,200 fake banknotes were discovered by police.

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5G tests Switzerland’s limits on cybersecurity

2019-10-20

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2019-10-20

As more governments mull the risks of working with foreign vendors of 5G networks, eyes are on Switzerland as one of the technology’s early adopters. Will the Swiss take a heavier hand in restricting foreign providers like Huawei in the 5G supply chain or let the market decide? In a grim but not-so-far-fetched scenarioexternal link, a hacker attacks a 5G antenna, sending malicious signals to millions of connected devices.

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IMF Warning: ‘World’s Financial System Is More Stretched, Unstable and Dangerous Than It Was On the Eve of the Lehman Crisis’

2019-10-20

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2019-10-20

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again warned that the world’s financial system is more stretched, unstable and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis. Quantitative easing, zero percent interest rates and massive financial repression has pushed investors – and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them – into taking on ever more risk.

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Raising Switzerland’s retirement age – big differences of opinion

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

Switzerland’s government has long discussed the importance of raising the retirement age to ensure the financial viability of the pension system. However, it is not clear whether voters would support such a plan. According to a survey by Deloitte, an accounting and consulting company, raising the official retirement age might not find majority support among Swiss voters. Some groups are firmly against the idea.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback hits fresh October lows against the Swiss Franc

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF remains under heavy pressure after the London close. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9871 level. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a sideways trend, now challenging the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages (DSMAs) below the 0.9900 handle.  the near term. Resistances can be seen at the 0.9881

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Credit Suisse to charge wealthy clients negative interest rates

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

Credit Suisse has joined the likes of UBS and Post Finance in charging rich clients to park their wealth in its vaults. It will pass on the cost of the central bank’s negative interest rates to both private individuals and corporate accounts above certain thresholds. From November 15, corporate clients will be charged -0.85% interest on cash holdings above CHF10 million ($10 million), Credit Suisse confirmed on Friday.

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Welcome to the USSR: the United States of Suppression and Repression

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

workers share of national income, 1994-2020
We're all against "fake news," right? Until your content is deemed "fake news" in a "fake news" indictment without any evidence, trial or recourse. When propaganda is cleverly engineered, people don't even recognize it as propaganda: welcome to the USSR, the United States of Suppression and Repression. 

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Referendum to ban tobacco advertising in Switzerland reaches 100,000 signatures

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

An initiative demanding a ban on tobacco advertising has collected 109,969 valid signatures, more than the 100,000 minimum required to launch a popular vote, according to RTS. The planned vote entitled: “Yes to the protection of children and young people against tobacco advertising” demands the federal government ban all forms of tobacco advertising towards children and young people.

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Cool Video: With Rick Santelli on CNBC

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

I was invited to Rick Santelli's Exchange on CNBC earlier today. There is a 3.5-minute clip of the interview that can be found here. Despite being a dollar bull for nearly a decade (since around the time of my first book--Making Sense of the Dollar--), I do not think a strong or weak dollar is desirable. It is about the level that is appropriate depending on business conditions and the economic cycle.

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Economic Decay Leads to Social and Political Decay

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Workers share of national income, 1994-2020
If we want to make real progress, we have to properly diagnose the structural sources of the rot that is spreading quickly into every nook and cranny of the society and culture. It seems my rant yesterday (Let Me Know When It's Over) upset a lot of people, many of whom felt I trivialized the differences between the parties and all the reforms that people believe will right wrongs and reduce suffering.

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China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

China Exports, 2006-2019
Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is “trade wars”, most if not all attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It’s not happening, at least according to China’s official statistics.

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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, 2001-2019
Despite the name, the Fed doesn’t actually intervene in the US$ repo market. I know they called them overnight repo operations, but that’s only because they mimic repo transactions not because the central bank is conducting them in that specific place. What really happened was FRBNY allotting bank reserves (in exchange for UST, MBS, and agency collateral) only to the 24 primary dealers.

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Dollar Broadly Weaker as Brexit Deal Takes Shape

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

The dollar remains under pressure due to weak US retail sales and rising optimism on Brexit and the trade war. Brexit negotiations remain tense and we should expect a higher than usual noise-to-signal ratio at this stage. China said its goal is to stop the trade war and remove all tariffs. US has a full data schedule; we remain constructive on the US economic outlook.

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FX Daily, October 17: EU-UK Deal Sends Sterling and the Euro Higher

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific is consolidated after gaining for the past four sessions.

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