Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss government makes it easier to get paid for work done on the train

2020-01-04

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2020-01-04

From 1 January 2020, it will be much easier for Switzerland’s 38,000 federal government employees to get paid for working on the train, according to the newspaper Tages-Anzeiger. Until the beginning of this year, working on the train on the way to and from work was only rewarded in exceptional instances and even then it was only partially counted.

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2019: The Year of Repo

2020-01-04

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2020-01-04

Fed Balance Sheet: Reserve Balances, 2008-2019
The year 2019 should be remembered as the year of repo. In finance, what happened in September was the most memorable occurrence of the last few years. Rate cuts were a strong contender, the first in over a decade, as was overseas turmoil. Both of those, however, stemmed from the same thing behind repo, a reminder that September’s repo rumble simply punctuated.

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Understanding Money Mechanics

2020-01-04

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2020-01-04

Dr. Bob Murphy joins the Human Action Podcast to discuss one of the most important issues of all: how money and credit work in today's society. Jeff Deist recently commissioned Murphy to write a series of articles on money mechanics, an exceedingly important topic for critics of the Fed—and today's podcast serves as an introduction to the project.

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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The Two Charts You Need to Ignore or Rationalize Away in 2020 (Unless You’re a Bear)

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Fed monthly vs US Stock Market
If you believe you've front-run the herd, you're now in mid-air along with the rest of the herd that has thundered off the cliff. We're awash in financial charts, but only a few crystallize an entire year. Here are the two charts that sum up everything you need to know about the stock market in 2020.

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Running a Swiss business – changes in 2020

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Every year brings changes for business owners and managers. In May 2019, a majority of Swiss voters accepted a package of changes to the way companies are taxed known as The Federal Act on Tax Reform and AHV Financing (TRAF). Many of the changes flowing from this begin on 1 January 2020.

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Wealth Consumption vs. Growth – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Gold and Silver Prices
GDP – A Poor Measure of “Growth” Last week the prices of the metals rose $35 and $0.82. But, then, the price of a basket of the 500 biggest stocks rose 62. The price of a barrel of oil rose $1.63. Even the euro went up a smidgen. One thing that did not go up was bitcoin. Another was the much-hated asset in the longest bull market. We refer to the US Treasury.

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Is Greater Productivity a Danger?

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

It is bad enough that opponents of the free market wrongly blame capitalism for environmental pollution, depressions, and wars. Whatever the failings of their causal theories, at least they are focused on undoubtedly bad things. We have really gone beyond the pale, though, when the market is blamed for something good.

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Unemployment in Geneva higher than neighbouring France

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

In December last year, the Observatoire statistique transfrontalier published unemployment figures for the French region surrounding Geneva. French unemployment calculations follow the method used by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), which include all job seekers, according to Tribune de Genève.

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Mnuchin to head US delegation to Davos

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

The US delegation at the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) gathering in Davos will be led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. It is unclear whether President Donald Trump will again attend the annual event.

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FX Daily, January 02: Equities Start New Year with a Pop

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

Overview:  Equities have begun New Year like, well, last year, with most Asia Pacific markets advancing, led by more than 1% gains in China, Hong Kong, and Thailand.  Only South Korea and Indonesian markets fell.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% in late morning turnover.  US shares are trading higher as well, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 0.6%.

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The spirit of Fintech past and the spectre of Fintech future

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

It was a busy 2019 for Swiss fintech and there is promise for more to come in 2020. Here’s a round-up of fintech past and my observations of how things may shape up in the coming months. The year 2019 started with the arrival of a new breed of Fintech banking license, designed to allow small financial players to accept up to CHF100 million in deposits, but with restrictions.

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2019 Was a Bad Year For the “Only Cops Should Have Guns” Narrative

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

Total New Guns, Homicide Rate, 1986-2018
On December 29, an armed gunman entered the West Freeway Church of Christ in Texas and shot two members of the congregation. Within six seconds, a third member of the congregation drew a weapon and shot the gunman dead. The events were captured on live-streamed video, with the dramatic events — in the minds of many observers — highlighting the benefits of privately-owned firearms as a defense against armed criminals.

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The Fed’s “Not-QE” and the $33 Trillion Stock Market in Three Charts

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

U.S. Stock Market
One day the stock market 'falcon' will no longer hear the Fed 'falconer', and the Pavlovian magical thinking will break down as the market goes bidless. The past decade has shown that when the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars out of thin air (QE), U.S. stocks rise accordingly. The correlation is very nearly perfect.

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A Sour End To The 2010’s Doesn’t Have To Spoil The Entire 2020’s

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

China GDP, 2011-2019
It has been perhaps the most astonishing divergence in the first two decades of 21st century history. In late 2017, Western economic officials (mostly central bankers) were taking their victory laps. They took great pains to tell the world it was due to their profound wisdom, deep courage, and, most of all, determined patience, that they had been able to see their policies through to the light of day (no thanks to voters around the world).

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Economic Stats Won’t Tell Us What Really Causes Recessions

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

Most economists are of the view that by means of economic indicators it is possible to identify early signs of an upcoming recession or prosperity. What is the rationale behind this opinion? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) introduced the economic indicators approach in the 1930s.

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Presseschau vom Wochenende 52 (28./29. Dezember)

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

NATIONALBANK: Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) dürfte gemäss Schätzung der SonntagsZeitung für das laufende Jahr einen Gewinn von gegen 50 Milliarden Franken ausweisen, nachdem 2018 noch ein Verlust von fast 15 Milliarden resultiert hatte. Für die ersten drei Quartale 2019 hatte die Nationalbank bereits einen Gewinn von 51,5 Milliarden Franken ausgewiesen, dies dank Wertsteigerungen auf den Anlagen als Folge sinkender Zinsen und steigender...

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Technical problem shuts down Swiss nuclear power station

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

The Leibstadt nuclear power station in northern Switzerland has been disconnected from the power grid and shut down because of a technical fault. Once the cause has been clarified, the plant will be put back into operation as soon as possible, the operator said. It is not clear when that will be.

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The Hour Is Getting Late

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

Total Assets, 2015-2019
After 11 years of "the Fed is the market" expansion, the Fed has now reduced its bloated balance sheet by 6.7%. This is normal, right? So here we are in Year 11 of the longest economic expansion/ stock market bubble in recent history, and by any measure, the hour is getting late, to quote Mr. Dylan: So let us not talk falsely nowthe hour is getting lateBob Dylan, "All Along the Watchtower"

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How to Write and Understand History

2019-12-30

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2019-12-30

[Adapted from Chapter 2 of Human Action.] The study of all the data of experience concerning human action is the scope of history. The historian collects and critically sifts all available documents. On the ground of this evidence he approaches his genuine task.

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