Tag Archive: newsletter

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

EM FX was broadly firmer last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s soft tone as well as another wave of risk-on sentiment.  Bullishness on the global economy is quite strong, whilst we are perhaps a bit more skeptical given ongoing weakness in the UK, Japan, and the eurozone.  Dollar bearishness may also be overdone given our more constructive outlook on the US economy, but technical damage has been done that must now be repaired.

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Signs Swirl All Around Us – The Monetary Reset Is At Hand

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

For most of this decade owning gold and gold-related investments has required the patience of Job, and the sector is so obscure that it is hard to be sure of anything. But for months now the unusual developments have been piling up so much that it may be possible to regain some optimism.

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To Be Useful, Data Needs Theory

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

For most so-called practical economists, information regarding the state of an economy is derived from data. Thus, if an economic statistic such as real gross domestic product or industrial production shows a visible increase, it is considered indicative of a strengthening of the economy. Conversely, a decline in the growth rate is regarded as weakening. It seems that by looking at the data one can ascertain economic conditions. Is this the case,...

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The Turn

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same.  The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago.  Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn.  Now with additional monetary easing in the pipeline and renewed expansion of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's balance sheets, risk appetites have been stoked.

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Facebook’s Libra has failed in current form, says Swiss president

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Facebook’s Libra project needs reworking to be approved, according to the president of Switzerland, where the cryptocurrency is seeking regulatory consent. “I don’t think [Libra has a chance in its current form], because central banks will not accept the basket of currencies underpinning it,” Finance Minister Ueli Maurer, who held the rotating presidency in 2019, told Swiss public radio, SRF.

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Grüne fordert Verteuerung von klimaschädigenden Investitionen

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Die Grünenpolitikerin Greta Gysin (TI) hat einen Vorschlag zur Berücksichtigung von ökologischen Aspekten bei Investitionen unterbreitet. "Wir müssen die Kosten solcher Investments internalisieren", sagte sie dem "Tages-Anzeiger" vom Samstag.

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Is Social Media the New Tobacco?

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
If we set out to design a highly addictive platform that optimized the most toxic, destructive aspects of human nature, we'd eventually come up with social media.

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Swiss parliament approves new 6 billion franc fighter jet purchase

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Before Christmas, Switzerland’s parliament approved the purchase of a new fleet of fighter jets costing CHF 6 billion, according to RTS. The plan, which aims to defend Swiss airspace beyond 2030, has now been approved by both Switzerland’s upper and lower houses.

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FX Daily, December 27: Equities Rally While the Dollar Slumps into the Weekend

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Overview:  Equities are finishing the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, encouraged by strong holiday internet sales in the US.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced except China and Thailand, while Japanese markets were mixed after weak industrial output and retail sales.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive week.

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Number on welfare in Switzerland falls for first time in 10 years

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

In 2018, the number of people receiving social welfare in Switzerland fell from 278,300, or 3.3% of the population, to 272,700, 3.2% of the population. The last time the number fell was in 2008 when it dropped from 3.1% (233,500) to 2.9% (222,600) of the population.

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Xi To Skip Davos, Collapsing Hopes Of Phase One Deal Signing Event With Trump

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

If it was The Wall Street Journal or other US financial media outlets, for the last several weeks, pumping headlines via "people familiar with the discussions," about how President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have a phase one trade deal signing event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January. 

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How Today’s Central Bankers Threaten Civilization

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

When I was asked to write an article about the impact of negative interest rates and negative yielding bonds, I thought it was a chance to look at the topic from a broader perspective. There have been lots of articles speculating about the possible implications and focusing on their impact in the short run, but it’s not very often that an analysis looks a bit further into the future, trying to connect money and its effect on society itself.

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Abolish the Office of the First Lady

2019-12-26

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2019-12-26

It's almost Christmas time again, and that means its time for White House politicians and staff to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Christmas decorations and events for the White House.

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Credit Suisse: FINMA appoints independent investigator

2019-12-25

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2019-12-25

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA says it will have an independent auditor investigate Swiss bank Credit Suisse “in the context of observation activities”. “The observation activities carried out by Credit Suisse raise various compliance issues,” FINMA said in a statement on Friday evening.

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Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict

2019-12-25

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2019-12-25

Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess match to rapidly evolving 3-D chess in which the rules keep changing in unpredictable ways. A declining standard of living in the developed world, declining growth for the developed world and geopolitical jockeying for control of resources make for a highly combustible mix awaiting a spark: welcome to the era of intensifying chaos and the rapid advance of new weapons of conflict...

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Economics and the Revolt against Reason

2019-12-25

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2019-12-25

The Revolt Against Reason. It is true that some philosophers were ready to overrate the power of human reason. They believed that man can discover by ratiocination the final causes of cosmic events, the inherent ends the prime mover aims at in creating the universe and determining the course of its evolution.

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Credit Suisse Ex-Employee Says “Striking Tall Blonde” Spy Followed Her In Manhattan And Long Island

2019-12-24

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2019-12-24

When Colleen Graham heard a story of investigators looking into Credit Suisse for spying on its recently departed head of wealth management, something sounded familiar. She had recalled, years prior, when she was working on a JV between the bank and Palantir Technologies, a "striking tall blonde" had followed her in Manhattan after she refused to sign off on how revenue from the JV would be booked.

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Real High Crimes and Misdemeanors

2019-12-24

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2019-12-24

World Class Entertainer in the Cross-Hairs. Christmas is no time to be given the old heave-ho.  This is a time of celebration, redemption, and excess libation.  A time to shop ‘til you drop; the economy depends on it. Don’t get us wrong.  There really is no best time to receive the dreaded pink slip.  But Christmas is the absolute worst.  Has this ever happened to you?

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Failing to Emigrate Does Not Mean You Give Consent to the State

2019-12-24

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2019-12-24

Eric Nelson, a Professor Government at Harvard, has published this year a brilliant and imaginative book, The Theology of Liberalism (Harvard University Press, 2019). Nelson, it should be said, is no leftist, despite what you might expect from his Harvard affiliation. To the contrary, he is a conservative and favors, though not to the fullest extent, the free market and private property rights.

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FX Weekly Preview: Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week

2019-12-23

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2019-12-23

The capital markets will turn increasingly quiet in the week ahead as the Christmas holiday thins participation. If this is the season of goodwill, investors are lapping it up.  Global equity markets are finishing a strong year on a high note.  Record highs were recorded in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600.  The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index is at its best level since August 2018. 

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