Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, December 19: Whiff of Inflation in the Air

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year. The US yield curve (2-10 year) has been steepening after being inverted for a few days in August, and now at nearly 29 bp, also is new highs for the year.

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2019: Foreign trade continues to contract

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), November 2019
As in the previous month, cross-border flows of goods fell in both directions of traffic in November 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell 1.7% on a month compared to 1.1% for imports. Swiss sales fell back to their level at the start of 2019, while admissions fell by almost a billion francs. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.2 billion francs.

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Swiss railways are becoming safer, new figures show

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

There has been a fall in the number of accidents and fatalities on the Swiss railways, according to new national figures. On Tuesday, the Federal Statistical Office reported a total of 70 rail accidents and 14 deaths in 2018. This is the lowest number of annual fatalities since 2011. In the 2000s there were between 200 and 282 reported accidents each year and 20-40 deaths, excluding suicides on the Swiss rail network.

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Poverty in Switzerland rises 10 percent in a year 

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

Although Switzerland is rich, poverty within the country continues to rise, says a report released on Tuesday. Poverty affected 675,000 people including 100,000 children in 2017, a 10% increase on the previous year, according to the report (in French) by the non-governmental organisation Caritas.

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Latest European Sentiment Echoes Draghi’s Last Take On Global Economic Risks

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

Germany Economy, 2016-2019
While sentiment has been at best mixed about the direction of the US economy the past few months, the European economy cannot even manage that much. Its most vocal proponent couldn’t come up with much good to say about it – while he was on his way out the door. At his final press conference as ECB President on October 24, Mario Draghi had to acknowledge (sort of) how he is leaving quite the mess for Christine Lagarde.

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Where’s the Inflation? It’s in Stocks, Real Estate, and Higher Ed

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

Increases in Spending and Prices 2009 through 2018
In my days before I worked for the Mises Institute, I had a colleague who knew I associated with Austrian-School economists. In the wake of the bailouts and quantitative easing that followed the 2008 financial crisis, he'd sometimes crack "where's all that inflation you Austrians keep talking about?"

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Hard Brexit Redux?

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

The risks of a hard Brexit are perhaps higher than markets appreciated. Here, we set forth some possible scenarios as to what may unfold after the January 31 deadline. Uncertainty is likely to be protracted and markets hate uncertainty. As such, we see UK assets continuing to underperform.

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Fed Is Monetizing 90 percent of U.S. Deficit to Keep Interest Rates from Rising and Crashing Markets

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

Effective Fed Funding of National Debt, 2019
By Daniel R. Amerman, CFAAs can be seen in the graph above, for the last 12 weeks there has been a stunning visual correlation between the yellow bars of the total weekly funding of deficits by the Federal Reserve, and the green bars of the weekly deficit spending by the United States government.

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Open Letter to John Taft, Report 17 Dec

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

Silver Basis and Co-basis and the Dollar Price
Dear Mr. Taft: I eagerly read your piece Warriors for Opportunity on Wednesday, as I often do about pieces that argue that capitalism is not working today. You begin by saying: “Financial capitalism – free markets powered by a robust financial system – is the dominant economic model in the world today. Yet many who have benefited from the system agree it’s not working the way it ought to.”

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USD/CHF finds support near 0.9800 before SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

Technical levels to watch for USD/CHF
Major European stocks post modest losses on Wednesday. US Dollar Index clings to gains above 97.30. Coming up: Swiss National Bank's (SNB) Quarterly Bulletin. The USD/CHF pair dropped to its lowest level since late August at 0.9798 on Wednesday but staged a technical recovery in the last hour. As of writing, the pair was up 0.05% on the day at 0.9808.

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FX Daily, December 18: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

Overview: The capital markets have turned quiet as the year-end positioning drives prices in lieu of fresh developments. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were narrowly mixed. The smaller markets in Asia performed better than the large bourses of Japan, China, and Korea, which eased. European equities are off to a firm start, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near the record high set Monday.

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Court rejects Lake Zurich cablecar project

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

A Zurich court has rejected plans for a cablecar link crossing over Lake Zurich, stating that the project, known as ‘Zuribahn’, did not have sufficient local support. The court annulled construction plans for the city cablecar, which had been presented by Zurich Cantonal Bank (ZKB) to mark the bank’s 150th birthday in 2020.

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Court rejects damages claims against Volkswagen and Swiss importer

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

A Zurich commercial court has dismissed claims for damages by a consumer group against the German car firm Volkswagen and Swiss importer Amag, linked to the “Dieselgate” emissions-rigging scandal. In a December 6 ruling published on Tuesday, Zurich canton’s commercial court said the SKS consumer group did not have the legal status or procedural capacity to file a complaint.

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China Data: Something New, or Just The Latest Scheduled Acceleration?

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

China Retail Sales, 2010-2019
The Chinese government was serious about imposing pollution controls on its vast stock of automobiles. The largest market in the world for cars and trucks, the net result of China’s “miracle” years of eurodollar-financed modernization, for the Chinese people living in its huge cities the non-economic costs are, unlike the air, immediately clear each and every day.

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Hyperinflation, Money Demand, and the Crack-up Boom

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

In the early 1920s, Ludwig von Mises became a witness to hyperinflation in Austria and Germany — monetary developments that caused irreparable and (in the German case) cataclysmic damage to civilization. Mises's policy advice was instrumental in helping to stop hyperinflation in Austria in 1922.

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A Repo Deluge…of Necessary Data

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

US Depository Institutions, 2008-2019
Just in time for more discussions about repo, the Federal Reserve delivers. Not in terms of the repo market, mind you, despite what you hear bandied about in the financial media the Fed doesn’t actually go there. Its repo operations are more RINO’s – repo in name only. No, what the US central bank actually contributes is more helpful data.

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FX Daily, December 17: Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

Overview: Efforts by a UK Prime Minister emboldened by a strong electoral victory to ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had returned to where it closed before the results were known near $1.3160.

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USD/CHF retreats to 0.9820 area as USD loses strength

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

Technical levels to watch for USD/CHF
US Dollar Index erases daily recovery gains ahead of American session. European equity indexes stay in the negative territory. Coming up: Building Permits, Housing Starts and Industrial Production data from US. The USD/CHF lost its traction in the last couple of hours and retraced its daily recovery gains pressured by the sour market mood and the broad USD weakness.

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Paper reports new surveillance case involving Credit Suisse executive

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

A senior Credit Suisse human resources executive was tailed by private investigators in February, the Neue Zuercher Zeitung (NZZ) newspaper reported on Tuesday. The Swiss bank was rocked by a highly damaging spygate case earlier this year involving the surveillance of former wealth management boss Iqbal Khan.

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Léman Express to cut Geneva traffic jams

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

Commuters got their first proper taste on Monday of what's been hailed as the largest cross-border regional rail network in Europe, the Léman Express.The network, which opened officially on Sunday, is the result of decades of planning and almost eight years of construction work. It offers a fast cross-city rail link from Geneva's central train station to Annemasse in France.

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