Tag Archive: newsletter

Steep Increase in Swiss Housing Prices in Last Decade

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

Apartment prices have risen in every district in Switzerland in the last eleven years except for one. Zurich tops the list with a median price of CHF 13,000 ($1313) per square metre – a 97% increase since 2007. This is according to a study by the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ) in partnership with comparison website comparis.ch.

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Swiss arms exports rose almost 18percent in 2018

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

Switzerland exported close to 18% more arms over the first nine months of 2018 than it did in the first nine months of 2017, according to figures published by State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). According to the numbers, in the nine months to 30 September 2018, Swiss companies exported close to CHF 300 million of arms, nearly CHF 45 million or 17.6% more than over the same period in 2017.

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Raining On Chinese Prices

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

China Price Stability 2007-2018
It was for a time a somewhat curious dilemma. When it rains it pours, they always say, and for China toward the end of 2015 it was a real cloudburst. The Chinese economy was slowing, dangerous deflation developing around an economy captured by an unseen anchor intent on causing havoc and destruction. At the same time, consumer prices were jumping where they could do the most harm.

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Bumpy Road Ahead for Italian Budget

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

Italy Update Chart, 2006 - 2022
Rome’s budget plans put it on a collision course with the European Commission. The Italian government has submitted its 2019 draft budget plan (DBP) to the European Commission. The proposed DBP is not in line with European Union rules and sets the government on a collision course with the European authorities.

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Global economic competitiveness stumbles in face of technology transformation

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

A major update to the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Index reveals that the global economy is ill-prepared for the transformation brought on by technology disruption. While the United States comes the closest to the “competitive frontier” taking the top spot in the ranking, the WEF warns that government policies need to catch up to prevent rapid technological change from becoming a drag on competitiveness.

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Interview, Ted Talk, Gold Bug Hope and will the Swiss Franc Collapse

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

I was on the Jay Taylor Show again, to talk about the the Swiss franc. No, the headline was not of my choosing. Adam Caroll gave a Ted Talk about how people behave differently when money isn’t real. And gets into a discussion of how kids will click to spend on their parents’ phones without any real appreciation for what it costs. It’s called “When money isn’t real“.

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Inflation Environment remains Benign in China

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

China CPI and Core CPI YoY, 2013 - 2018
The headline consumer price index (CPI) in China picked up slightly in September, rising by 2.5% year-over-year (y-o-y) compared with 2.3% in August, driven by higher food price and fuel prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation in China actually eased to 1.7% y-o-y in September from 2.0% in August.

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FX Daily, October 18: China’s Angst Stays Local

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Asian equities were lower, led by a nearly 3% drop in Shanghai, while European shares shrugged it off and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover. The S&P 500 is off by about 0.25%. Global bond yields were dragged higher by US Treasuries where the 10-year yield is straddling 3.20% after rising four basis points yesterday.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2018: First Decline in Foreign Trade Over the Last Seven Quarters

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Switzerland Trade Balance, September 2018
After a year and a half of continued growth in Swiss foreign trade, exports in the third quarter of 2018 contracted by 2.9% compared with the previous quarter's record. However, they remained above the 54 billion franc mark. Evolving at a high level, imports fell by 1.5% (-768 million francs). The trade balance closes with a surplus of 3.5 billion francs.

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Builders strike in Ticino over worsening work conditions

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Some 3,000 construction workers staged a strike in southern Switzerland on Monday to protest changes in the industry, including disputes around the retirement age of 60. Further action is planned in Geneva on Tuesday. The strikes in canton Ticino were jointly called by the Unia, Syna, and OCST trade unions, who claimed that business leaders were “blackmailing” workers with worsening conditions as a quid pro quo for maintaining the current industry...

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Brexit: Five FAQs

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Brexit
The UK voted in s referendum to leave the EU in June 2016. It will happen at the end of March 2019. What is the status of the negotiations? It had been hoped that the two sides would be close enough to allow a special summit to be called next month to finalize an agreement.

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Just The One More Boom Month For IP

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Industrial Production, SA 1995-2018
The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last September. Therefore, the base comparison for 2018 is against that artificial low. As such, US IP rose by 5.1% year-over-year last month. That’s the largest gain since 2010.

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In surprise move, Central Bank of Hungary announces 10-fold jump in its gold reserves

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Hungary's new Gold Bars
In one of the most profound developments in the central bank gold market for a long time, the Hungarian National Bank, Hungary’s central bank, has just announced a 10 fold jump in its monetary gold holdings. The central bank, known as Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) in Hungarian, made the announcement in Budapest, Hungary’s capital.

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FX Daily, October 17: Greenback is Little Changed While Stocks Recover

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Led by a dramatic recovery in US stocks, global equities are moving higher today. Before last week, decline, the US stock market lacked breadth, but not only did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post their biggest advance in several months, but the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had their best day in a couple of years.

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Business group pushes for more streamlined farming sector

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

The main Swiss business federation has released its recommendations for the government’s sensitive reforms of the agriculture sector. Farmers’ groups reacted with cautious approval. Economiesuisse gave its appraisal of the government’s 2022 agricultural reform plans on Monday, an appraisal that mostly centred around the simplification and decentralisation of agricultural measures.

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Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities?

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill. In this Great Graphic, the white line is the S&P 500. With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year. It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the year.

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Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Economy

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Retail Sales, Gasoline 2011-2018
The clock really was ticking on this so-called economic boom. A product in many economic accounts of Keynesian-type fantasy, the destructive effects of last year’s hurricanes in sharp contrast to this year’s (which haven’t yet registered a direct hit on a major metropolitan area or areas, as was the case with Harvey and Irma) meant both a temporary rebound birthed by rebuilding as well as an expiration date for those efforts.

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Is the Canary in the Gold Mine Coming to Life Again?

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Canary
Back in late 2015 and early 2016, we wrote about a leading indicator for gold stocks, namely the sub-sector of marginal – and hence highly leveraged to the gold price – South African gold stocks. Our example du jour at the time was Harmony Gold (HMY) (see “Marginal Producer Takes Off” and “The Canary in the Gold Mine” for the details).

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FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Overview:  Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week's jump in volatility.  Asia and European stocks are also cautiously steadying.  Most Asia equity markets advanced with the Nikkei's 1.25% advance most bourses higher.  China was a notable exception, The Shanghai Composite recorded new lows for the year and finished uninspiringly on...

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Devil is in the details: Italian and French deficits are not quite comparable

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

France Versus Italy: Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) 2009-2019
Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target.Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid- October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%?

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