Tag Archive: newsletter

Large downward revisions to the Swiss National Bank’s inflation forecasts

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Swiss Headline Inflation and SNB Inflation Forecasts
Fresh inflation projections likely to keep the central bank on the path of prudence.The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its monetary policy unchanged at its quarterly meeting today.The main policy rate was left at a record low (-0.75%) and the central bank reiterated its currency intervention pledge.

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Swiss Supermarkets Selling Products with no Country of Origin on Label

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

For example, a piece of farmed salmon will typically be labelled only with its country of origin, containing no information on what the fish has been fed. Contaminated fish feed can significantly push up the level of dioxins found in the fish’s fat. Mad cows disease is another example of how animal feed contaminated food.

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US Banks Haven’t Behaved Like This Since 2009

2018-12-14

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2018-12-14

Total Credit Market Assets 1953 Q1 - 2018 Q1
If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we all should be worried about zombies. Senator Bob Corker wasn’t talking about the literal undead, rather a scenario much like Japan where the financial system entered a period of sustained agony – leading to the same in the real economy, one lost...

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FX Daily, December 13: May Survives but its Draghi’s Day

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Overview: There is a sense of optimism among investors today that may be tested as the session progresses. News that China may reconsider its "Made in China 2025" initiative as an apparent concession to the US while reports suggest it has bought 1.5-2.0 mln tons of soy is easing trade tension fears. 

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Monetary Policy Assessment of 13 December 2018

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2018
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansio nary mo netary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2018: +1.4 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.4%.

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EU Recession Imminent – Euro Disunion as Brexit, Italy and End of QE Loom

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

APP Monthly Net Purchases by Program, 2015 - 2018
Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember. That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see.

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China Going Back To 2011

2018-12-13

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2018-12-13

China PBOC Balance Sheet and CPI, Nov 2006 - 2018
The enormous setback hadn’t yet been fully appreciated in March 2012 when China’s Premiere Wen Jiabao spoke to and on behalf of the country’s Communist governing State Council. Despite it having been four years since Bear Stearns had grabbed the whole world’s attention (for reasons the whole world wouldn’t fully comprehend, specifically as to why the whole world would need to care about the shadow “dollar” business of one US investment “bank”) the...

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FX Daily, December 12: Markets Calm on May Day

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

The US S&P 500 failed to sustain the early upside momentum, but global equities are moving higher today, and there is some optimism on the trade front. Emerging market equities and currencies are also doing well today.

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The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Is Getting Whacked, And Why “Moneyness” Matters

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Swiss National Bank Stock Holdings
A few years ago the Swiss National Bank (SNB) - which traditionally held “monetary assets” like government bonds, cash and gold to back up the Swiss franc - decided to branch out into common stocks. This was a departure, but for a while a brilliant one.

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‘Paris’ Technocrats Face Another Drop

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Eurozone Industrial Production, Jan 2013 - Nov 2018
How quickly things change. Only a few days ago, a fuel tax in France was blamed for widespread rioting. Today, Emmanuel Macron’s government under siege threatens to break its fiscal budget. Having given up on gasoline and diesel, the French government now promises wage increases and tax cuts.

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Older workers have ‘untapped potential’ to fill labour shortages

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Switzerland’s workforce is in good shape but perhaps not for long, according to a new study by the consulting firm Deloitte. Tapping existing pools of talent including older workers and women are key to helping companies meet future demands for skilled labour.

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Are We in a Recession Already?

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

Compensation Employees, 2000 - 2018
The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume drops, people stop buying houses and vehicles, restaurants that were jammed are suddenly sepulchral and so on. There are well-known canaries in the coal mine in terms of indicators.

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The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold

2018-12-12

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2018-12-12

PBoC balance sheet
Numbers from Bizarro-World. The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

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FX Daily, December 11: Fragile Calm Threatens to Break Out

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Indications that US and Chinese trade talks are proceeding, coupled with a dramatic reversal in the S&P 500 yesterday is helping stabilize the capital markets today. Asian equities were mixed, but the Greater China (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets) alongside India and Australia posted modest gains.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Economic Discussion

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Marc Chandler and Chris Wolfe on set of Bloomberg's Daybreak
I joined Chris Wolfe from First Republic Wealth Management on the set of Bloomberg's Daybreak to discuss market developments and the outlook for the US economy. We generally agreed that while the economy is slowing it is doing so from unsustainably strong levels.

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Swiss Government wants Public Consultation on EU Framework deal

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

The Swiss government says it wants to carry out a public consultation before taking a final position on an “institutional framework” agreement negotiated with the European Union aimed at cementing future ties between Switzerland and its biggest trading partner.

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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Japan GDP, Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, Jan 2008 - Mar 2018
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.

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Gold and Silver Gained 2 percents and 3 percents Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5 percents

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Gold Silver Stocks
Gold acted as a safe haven last week and is again acting as a safe haven in December. It has performed well despite the rout in stocks in Ireland and globally. U.S. stocks including the S&P500 and Nasdaq were down nearly 5% last week, while gold was 2% higher and silver over 3% higher.

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The Prodigal Parent, Report 9 Dec 2018

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Gold and Silver Price
The Baby Boom generation may be the first generation to leave less to their children than they inherited. Or to leave nothing at all. We hear lots—often from Baby Boomers—about the propensities of their children’s generation. The millennials don’t have good jobs, don’t save, don’t buy houses in the same proportions as their parents, etc.

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