Tag Archive: newsletter
Are We in a Recession Already?
The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume drops, people stop buying houses and vehicles, restaurants that were jammed are suddenly sepulchral and so on. There are well-known canaries in the coal mine in terms of indicators.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, December 11: Fragile Calm Threatens to Break Out
Indications that US and Chinese trade talks are proceeding, coupled with a dramatic reversal in the S&P 500 yesterday is helping stabilize the capital markets today. Asian equities were mixed, but the Greater China (China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets) alongside India and Australia posted modest gains.
Read More »
Read More »
Cool Video: Bloomberg Economic Discussion
I joined Chris Wolfe from First Republic Wealth Management on the set of Bloomberg's Daybreak to discuss market developments and the outlook for the US economy. We generally agreed that while the economy is slowing it is doing so from unsustainably strong levels.
Read More »
Read More »
Swiss Government wants Public Consultation on EU Framework deal
The Swiss government says it wants to carry out a public consultation before taking a final position on an “institutional framework” agreement negotiated with the European Union aimed at cementing future ties between Switzerland and its biggest trading partner.
Read More »
Read More »
Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.
Read More »
Read More »
Gold and Silver Gained 2 percents and 3 percents Last Week While Stocks Dropped Nearly 5 percents
Gold acted as a safe haven last week and is again acting as a safe haven in December. It has performed well despite the rout in stocks in Ireland and globally. U.S. stocks including the S&P500 and Nasdaq were down nearly 5% last week, while gold was 2% higher and silver over 3% higher.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, December 10: Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment
Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.
Read More »
Read More »
ECB Preview: an end to net asset purchases
With the ECB’s asset purchases due to end this month and forward guidance set to remain unchanged, a focus at next week’s policy meeting will be staff forecasts for growth and inflation. At its Governing Council meeting next week, we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to confirm that its asset purchases will cease at year’s end.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders
The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.
Read More »
Read More »
Drones can be safely guided by mobile phone networks
Switzerland’s existing mobile telephony infrastructure is enough to guarantee the safety of drone flights in the country’s airspace, according to a study published Wednesday. Commissioned by Swiss air navigation service provider Skyguide and carried out by the Aviation Research Center Switzerland (ARCS), the study focused on the possibility of using mobile networks to control drones.
Read More »
Read More »
Swiss investment management sector growing
As the Swiss financial centre adjusts to the loss of banking secrecy and possible fallout from Brexit, a report highlights increased investment management as the sector's cornerstone. The report, released on Thursday by the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), outlines the emergence of investment management – the “management of investments for institutional and private clients” – as a key component of the Swiss...
Read More »
Read More »
Swiss Post Office Expands Hospital Drone Delivery System
The Swiss Post is expanding its drone delivery system, transporting laboratory samples between two hospitals in Zurich. Similar pilots have been conducted in Bern and Lugano. On Tuesday, the Swiss Post announced it is launching a one-year pilot project to use drones to send laboratory samples between the University Hospital of Zurich and the Irchel site of the University of Zurich, which are 2.5 kilometres apart.
Read More »
Read More »
Swiss complaint over US tariffs to be reviewed by WTO panel
A Swiss complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) against United States import tariffs on aluminium and steel will be decided by a WTO panel. On Tuesday, the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) accepted to create separate panels to hear the complaints by Switzerland and India, after the two countries filed a second request for their cases to be heard.
Read More »
Read More »
A Global Dearth of Liquidity
Worldwide Liquidity Drought – Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere
This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China) as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency” for the details).
Nobody likes a drought. This collage illustrates why.
The liquidity drought is not confined to the US – it...
Read More »
Read More »
Converging Views Only Starts With Fed ‘Pause’
There’s no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is something else suggesting a slowdown. That much had been evident across much of the global economy, but this is now different. The US has apparently been infected, too, not that that is any surprise.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, December 07: A Couple More Events before Seeing the End of Difficult Week for Investors
Overview: Global equities have stabilized after US equities recovered yesterday, with the NASDAQ 100 staging its biggest reversal in eight months and the S&P500 recouped almost three percent to close 0.15% lower. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher. Hong Kong shares, including the mainland shares that trade there, were the notable exception.
Read More »
Read More »
Amazon reduces online offer for Swiss customers
Shoppers in Switzerland will no longer be able to buy items from the US Amazon website due to recent changes to Swiss value-added tax law. Exceptions will be made for e-books and apps. “From 26 December 2018 customers shopping on Amazon.com and other non-EU Amazon websites will not be able to ship non-digital orders to any shipping address in the Swiss Customs Union,” Amazon said on Monday.
Read More »
Read More »