Tag Archive: newsletter

Are Stocks Overvalued, Report 24 Dec 2018

2018-12-27

by

2018-12-27

Gold and Silver Prices
We could also have entitled this essay How to Measure Your Own Capital Destruction. But this headline would not have set expectations correctly. As always, when looking at the phenomenon of a credit-fueled boom, the destruction does not occur when prices crash. It occurs while they’re rising.

Read More »

The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty.

2018-12-27

by

2018-12-27

Political Polarization Has Exploded Since 2000
The net result is capital is impaired in eras of uncertainty. As we look ahead to 2019, what can we be certain of? Maybe your list is long, but mine has only one item: certainty is fraying. Confidence in financial policies intended to eliminate recessions is fraying, confidence in political processes that are supposed to actually solve problems rather than make them worse is fraying, confidence in the objectivity of the corporate media is fraying,...

Read More »

Swiss foreign minister defends proposed EU deal

2018-12-26

by

2018-12-26

Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis
Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis has rejected criticism of the results of negotiations with the European Union about a framework accord, encompassing all aspects of political relations between Switzerland and the 28-nation bloc.

Read More »

Just In Time For The Circus

2018-12-26

by

2018-12-26

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news and numbers stack up the more “they” say it’s nothing just transitory roughness.

Read More »

Halal label on Swiss chocolate sparks controversy

2018-12-25

by

2018-12-25

Some consumers in Switzerland and abroad have been questioning the halal label on Toblerone chocolate bars. Although certified as halal in April, it was only this week that a small storm began brewing on social media – with some people calling for boycotts of the chocolate produced by Mondelez in Bern.

Read More »

Das: “The Bubble Is Losing Air. Get Ready For A Crisis”

2018-12-25

by

2018-12-25

The shift to tighter monetary policies in the West is weakening credit markets. Over-indebted emerging markets face headwinds from rising borrowing costs and dollar shortages... Investors need to focus on their response to financial stresses in an era in which policymakers will be constrained.

Read More »

Swiss Luxury Watches Fail to Meet Environmental Standards

2018-12-24

by

2018-12-24

The Swiss branch of the environmental organisation, WWF, has called on Swiss-based watch companies to take more responsibility for ecological and social impacts, notably the use of gold. In its reportexternal link analysing the 15 biggest watch brands, the WWF says its findings are highly worrying as most companies have done nothing to address and counter climate change.

Read More »

Xi Jinping’s Pretty Consistent Message

2018-12-24

by

2018-12-24

China Industry Drives its Consumers, May 2011 - Nov 2018
It seems many were disappointed by the speech delivered by Xi Jinping. China’s supreme leader spoke at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing today on the 40th anniversary of his country’s first embrace of economic reform. Commentators had been expecting Xi to use the occasion to recommit to liberalization, further opening China to free market forces.

Read More »

Core Euro Sovereign Bonds 2019 Outlook

2018-12-23

by

2018-12-23

10 Year Bund Yield and EONIA Pricing, 2016 - 2018
In our central scenario, we expect the 10-year Bund yield to rise gradually to 0.8% by the end of next year from 0.26% on 17 December. Underpinning this upward movement is our expectation of a cumulative deposit rate hike of 40 basis points (bps) by the ECB, against current market expectations of only 10 bps.

Read More »

Swiss government approves post-Brexit deal on treatment of UK and Swiss nationals

2018-12-23

by

2018-12-23

Today, The Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive, announced it has approved a deal safeguarding the rights of Swiss and UK citizens after Brexit. The agreement is part of a package of deals being worked out as part of a plan dubbed “Mind the Gap”. Under the agreement, any UK citizen residing in Switzerland before Brexit will retain all of their existing rights for life.

Read More »

Construction prices rose by 0.3 percent in October 2018

2018-12-22

by

2018-12-22

Development of the construction price index in Switzerland
The construction price index recorded a rise of 0.3% between April and October 2018, reaching 99.3 points (October 2015 = 100). This result reflects a greater increase in civil engineering prices than in building prices. Year on year, construction prices increased by 0.6%.

Read More »

Switzerland could see vote on laws banning age discrimination

2018-12-22

by

2018-12-22

Heidi Joos, the managing director of the organisation Avenir 50 plus, and others, plan to launch a referendum aimed at introducing laws against age discrimination in Switzerland. Age discrimination in recruitment is common in Switzerland. Some job search websites allow filtering by age, and job adverts sometimes specify applicants be below a particular age.

Read More »

Forex Forensics: The Case of the Yen

2018-12-22

by

2018-12-22

Over the past five sessions, the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating about 1.7% against the US dollar, eclipsing the Swedish krona, which rallied strongly today after the Riksbank's surprise rate hike.  Given the sell-off in equities and the decline in markets, the yen's strength is not surprising. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 21: Markets Stumble into the Weekend

2018-12-21

by

2018-12-21

Overview: There is little reprieve from the equity meltdown ahead of the weekend. Major markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, China, India, and Australia pushed lower. The MSCI index of the region is near 15-month lows. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.6% near midday in London to make new two-year lows. US shares are also trading lower in Europe.

Read More »

Smartphones change Swiss shopping habits

2018-12-21

by

2018-12-21

More and more people in Switzerland are relying on their smartphone to shop, pay and transfer money, although, compared internationally, the Swiss are still cautious. The Global Mobile Consumer Survey 2018, published on Wednesday by consultants Deloitte, found that 92% of all adults in Switzerland own at least one smartphone, 5% own only a mobile phone and 3% own neither. Similar trends are seen globally.

Read More »

Powell: Still Strong; Markets: AYFKM

2018-12-21

by

2018-12-21

Global Systematically Important Banks 2017-2018
The official statement that accompanies each every FOMC policy action is by nature bland and sterile. Still, despite the sparseness of printed words those that are included can say a lot. Here’s its essence for what just wrapped up in December 2018: The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions,...

Read More »

Gold Prices Likely To Go Higher In 2019 After 4 percent Gain So Far In Q4

2018-12-21

by

2018-12-21

Traders Make First Bullish Bet on Gold Since July as Stocks Tumble
Gold traders appear excited about gold again as stocks are on pace for their worst year since 2008, and their worst December since 1931. Bullish bets on the yellow metal outnumbered bearish ones for the week ended December 11, resulting in the first instance of net positive contracts since July, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 20: Stocks Slump and the Dollar Slides as Market Concludes Fed is Mistaken

2018-12-20

by

2018-12-20

Overview:  Once again the US equity market failed to hold on to even minimal upticks.  The sharply lower close spurred follow-through selling in global equities.  Few have been spared the wrath of investors who apparently were disappointed with the Fed and its reluctance to consider stopping the balance sheet unwind. 

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance November 2018: Exports pass for the first time the bar of 19 billion francs

2018-12-20

by

2018-12-20

In November 2018, exports confirmed their growth the previous month with a 1.8% increase, posting a new monthly peak. Imports, on the other hand, weakened by 1.2% and remain in a negative spiral. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 3.1 billion francs.

Read More »