Tag Archive: $JPY

FX Daily, September 26: The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year

2018-09-26

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2018-09-26

The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in tight ranges. The euro and sterling have been confined to yesterday's ranges, while the greenback briefly traded above JPY113.00 for the first time in two months. The South African rand and Turkish lira are leading the most emerging market currencies higher. Asian equities moved higher, led by Hong Kong, which returned from yesterday's holiday.

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FX Daily, September 25: Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum

2018-09-25

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2018-09-25

The major currencies are mixed in quiet turnover. Most of the European currencies are firmer, while the dollar-bloc currencies, yen and Swiss franc are softer. Emerging market currencies are steady to higher, though there are a few exceptions in Asia, where the Indonesian rupiah and the Chinese yuan are off about 0.3%, while the Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit are around 0.2% lower.

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FX Daily, September 20: The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar

2018-09-21

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2018-09-21

Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies.  While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows.   The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling.   Most emerging market currencies are advancing against the dollar today. 

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FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Trades Heavily as Emerging Markets Follow China

2018-09-19

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2018-09-19

One would not have a clue looking at global equities that there has been a sharp escalation in trade tensions in the past 36 hours. As was well tipped the US imposed a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods and indicated that the tariff will rise to 25% at the start of next year. President Trump also threatened to quickly follow up with another tariff on $267 bln of Chinese goods it retaliated.

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Dollar Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily

2018-09-18

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2018-09-18

The US dollar is beginning the new week on a soft note, as China threatens not to accept the invitation for trade talks in Washington if the US imposes new tariffs on $200 bln of its goods, which the Wall Street Journal reports could come as early as today. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is giving back half of the 2.5% rally seen in the second half of last week.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Pullbacks Remain Shallow as Rate Differentials Widen

2018-09-17

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2018-09-17

The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of $50 bln a month in Q4.

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FX Daily, September 14: Dollar Losses Extended

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

The US dollar remains on the defensive after retreating yesterday.  Its losses against the most of the major and emerging market currencies are being extended today.  The combination of softer US inflation coupled with a less dovish than expected ECB, a Bank of England lifting growth forecasts, while warning that a Brexit without an agreement could spur higher mortgage rates, and a more aggressive rate hike by Turkey conspired to force the dollar...

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FX Daily, September 13: Vulnerable To Disappointment

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

There is an eerie calm in the markets ahead of the highlight for the day and week. The central banks of the eurozone, UK, and Turkey hold policy meetings, and the US reports August CPI. The greenback is a mostly firmer, with the Australian dollar as the notable exception. On the one hand, we would note that is it higher for the fourth consecutive sessions, after finding some support near $0.7100 earlier in the week. 

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FX Daily, September 12: Dollar Chops in Narrow Ranges

2018-09-12

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2018-09-12

Eurostat confirmed that EMU industrial output fell for a second consecutive month in July. The 0.8% decline was larger than expected and is the third decline of such a magnitude in four months and weighed on the euro. German and Spanish industrial output had surprised on the downside last week, and Italy matched suit today with a report showing a 1.8% contraction, much larger than expected, and bringing the year-over-year rate to -1.3% (workday...

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FX Daily, September 11: Dollar May Prove Resilient if it is Turn Around Tuesday

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

The euro and sterling extended their recovery from the US hourly earnings lows seen before the weekend. However, the move stalled in the European morning, after the UK reported better than expected earnings itself. Sterling approached the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the July high (~$1.3365) found just below $1.31. It has been correcting higher since reaching almost $1.2660 on August 15.

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FX Daily, September 10: Initial Extension of Euro and Sterling Losses Stall

2018-09-10

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2018-09-10

The US dollar's pre-weekend gains were extended against most the major currencies, but the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have recovered in the European morning.  Emerging markets currencies are mixed. The Indian rupee is the weakest(of the emerging market currencies (~-0.8%) following the widening of the Q2 current account deficit at the end of last week and ahead of the August trade deficit which is expected to show the impact of rising...

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Jump in Hourly Earnings is Key to US Jobs, while Canada adds 40k Full-Time Positions

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss.   It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median.  The most important part of the report was the 0.4% jump in hourly earnings, lifting the year-over-year rate to a new cyclical high of 2.9%.

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FX Daily, September 7: Emerging Markets Stabilize While Euro Shrugs Off Disappointing Data

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

The global capital markets are finishing the week on a more stable note than it began.  Indeed, since the middle of the week, many of the besieged emerging market currencies, like the South African rand, Turkish lira,  and Argentine peso have posted some corrective upticks.  Today, the MSCI Emerging Market Index is snapping a seven-day slide register a modest gain, ahead of the Latam session.  

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FX Daily, September 6: Fragile Calm Weighs on Greenback

2018-09-06

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2018-09-06

The global capital markets are calmer today.  This is not preventing the MSCI Emerging Market Index from extending its drop into the seventh consecutive session, but there has been a respite in the sell-off of emerging market currencies, where the Mexican peso, South African rand, Turkish lira, and Indonesian rupiah are modest, modest gains.  At the same time, the Philippine peso, Korean won, and Indian rupee continued to weaken.  

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FX Daily, September 05: Continuing EM Pain Helps the Dollar, but does Little for Yen

2018-09-05

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2018-09-05

The dollar is posting gains against most of the emerging market and major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off 1.6% and extending the drop to a sixth consecutive session. Indonesia's bourse saw the largest decline (~3.75%) in the region. In part, it reflects concern that the rupiah's weakness (falling now nine of the past 10 sessions) will boost corporate debt servicing costs.

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FX Daily, September 04: Dollar Gains Broadly

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

The US dollar is rising against all the major and emerging market currencies today. The signals from the White House suggest strong pressure will be exerted on Canada to sign on to NAFTA 2.0 or risk losing part of its auto sector, which of course is primarily the production of US brands. At the same time, the US is in no mood to negotiate with Europe or China.

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The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

The winding down of the North's summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader.

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FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations for continued hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unambiguous signals that trade tensions will increase in the coming weeks dampens the risk appetite.

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FX Daily, August 30: Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed.  The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures.  However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today's markets.   Disappointing data from Australia and New Zealand has seen the Antipodean currencies move lower.  New Zealand's business confidence fell to a ten-year low, and this sent the Kiwi tumbling.  Its nearly 0.9% fall...

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over

2018-08-29

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2018-08-29

The US dollar has steadied after pulling back in recent days, but the downside correction does not appear complete, and month-end flows are still a risk to picking a dollar-bottom. The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors. The main drag is paradoxically Westpac, one of Australia's largest banks, raised the variable rate mortgage by 14 bp to 5.38%. Others are expected to follow.

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