Tag Archive: $JPY

FX Daily, September 06: Wake Me up when September Ends

The US dollar fell to new lows since mid-2015 against the Canadian dollar yesterday. It is flattish today as the market awaits the central bank's decision. We are concerned that given the strong performance and market positioning, a rate hike could spur "buy the rumor, sell the fact" activity. Alternatively, a disappointment if the Bank does not hike could also lead to some Canadian dollar sales.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 5: Greenback Mixed, North Korea and PMIs in Focus

Reports suggesting that North Korea is moving an ICBM missile toward launch pad in the western part of the country at night to minimize detection, while South Korea is escalating its military preparedness and the US seeks new sanctions, keep investors on edge. Risk assets are mixed. Gold is slightly lower. While the yen is stronger, the Swiss franc is heavier. Asia equities slipped, and European shares are recouping much of yesterday's 0.5% loss.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 01: Manufacturing PMIs, US Jobs, and Implications of Harvey

As the markets head into the weekend, global equities are firmer, benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower, and the dollar is consolidating after North American pared the greenback's gains yesterday. Manufacturing PMIs from China, EMU, and the UK have been reported, while in the US, the August jobs data stand in the way of the long holiday weekend for Americans.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 31: US Core PCE Deflator may Challenge the Greenback’s Firmer Tone

The US dollar recovery was marginally extendedin Asia, and while it remains firm, it is lost some of its momentum. The Fed's target inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, may decline from 1.5% to 1.4%, according to the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey. That would be the lowest read since the end of 2015 and likely spur more speculation against another Fed hike before the end of the year.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 30: US Dollar Recovery Extended

The US dollar recovery that began in North American yesterday continued to in Asia and Europe. The geopolitical anxiety sparked by North Korea's missile over Japan subsided. The US response was seen as measured and tempered.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Losses Accelerate After North Korea Sends Missile over Japan

A brief period of quiet, which some may have confused with a change in posture, North Korea followed up the weekend's test of three ballistic missiles with what appears to have been an intermediate missile that flew over Japan. South Korea responded with its own symbolic display of force by dropping bombs by the DMZ.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 28: Monday’s Dollar Blues

The US dollar's pre-weekend losses were extended initially in Asia before it recovered sufficiently to give European participant a better selling level. The dollar selling into the shallow bounce reflects the bearish sentiment, which as we see it, was simply fanned by both Yellen and Draghi did not alter the status quo in their Jackson Hole speeches.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 25: Is the Janet and Mario Show a New Episode or Rerun?

The event that investors have been waiting for and the media frequently linked to whatever price action has taken place has arrived: Yellen and Draghi's speeches later today. Yellen is first. She will speak at 10:00 am ET. This is toward the end of the European trading week. Draghi speaks late in the North American session--3:00 pm ET.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 23: Consolidation in Capital Markets Conceals Coming Turbulence

A mixed US dollar will greet the North American participants today. It is softer against the euro and yen, but firmer against the dollar-bloc currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, the eastern and central European currencies are moving higher in the euro's draft.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 22: Turn Around Tuesday Sees Firmer Dollar, Rates, and Equities

The US dollar has recouped most of yesterday's declines. However, as we have seen over the past couple of sessions, he North American market appears more dollar negative than Europe or Asia. The dollar's rise through the European morning has left the intraday technical indicators a bit stretched, warning that this short-term pattern continues today.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 21: Dollar Edges Higher, While Equities Trade Heavily to Start the New Week

The US dollar is mostly firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The main impetus appears to be some position adjustment emanating from equities. The equity markets turned south in the second half of last week and are moving lower today. Foreign investors appeared to have sold around $100 bln of European equities in 2016 and bought around a third back this year.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Transitioning to a New Phase

Jackson Hole marks the end of the investors' summer and a beginning of a challenging several weeks. The abandonment of national business leaders from Trump's advisory board and strong words by Republican Senator Corker, followed by the dismissal of the controversial Bannon, could be a turning point. Neither Yellen nor Draghi may not even address the current policy stance as they discuss the topic at hand, "Fostering Dynamic Global Economy", which...

Read More »

FX Daily, August 17: Euro Softens on Crosses, Treasuries Stabilize

The US dollar had steadied after softening in the North American afternoon yesterday when the dissolution of President Trump's business councils as a series of executives stepped down.  The FOMC minutes added more fuel to the move. 

Read More »

Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?

Yen and Swiss franc are funding currencies. This goes a long way to explaining why they rally on heightened anxiety. The Swiss have lower rates than Japan and the franc is less volatile than the yen, but technicals argue for caution.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 16: Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments

Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments, A return to the macroeconomic agenda is being deterred by new drama from Washington and reports suggesting that ECB's Draghi will not be discussing the central bank's monetary policy course at Jackson Hole confab, which will take place next week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 15: Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

NY Fed President Dudley appears to have stolen any potential thunder in the July FOMC minutes that will be released tomorrow. While we put more emphasis on today's US retail sales data and the August Fed surveys, many others argued that the minutes were the key report this week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 14: Sigh of Relief Weighs on Yen and Gold, while Lifting Equities and the Dollar

The lack of new antagonisms over the weekend between the US and North Korea has prompted the markets to react accordingly. Already before the weekend, we detected some signs that at least some market participants had begun looking past the dramatic rhetoric.

Read More »

“Under Any Analysis, It’s Insanity”: What War With North Korea Could Look Like

Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic consequences would be.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Synthetic FX View — Macro and Prices

Economic data due out are unlikely to change macro views. Swiss franc's price action suggests some return to "normalcy" despite rhetoric remaining elevated. Sterling's 3.25 cent drop against the dollar looks over.

Read More »