Tag Archive: Germany Consumer Price Index

FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

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FX Daily, September 12: Focus on the ECB, while the Dollar Slips below CNY7.09

Overview: Some gestures in the US-China trade spat have given the market the reason to do what it had been doing, and that is taking on more risk. Equities are higher in Asia Pacific and opened in Europe higher before slipping. The MSCI Asia Pacific and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are advancing for the fourth consecutive week.

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FX Daily, August 13: Investors Remain on Edge

Overview:  The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation.  Global equities remain under pressure.  Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain. 

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FX Daily, July 11: Powell Spurs Equity and Bond Market Rally, While the Greenback Falls Out of Favor

Overview:  Fed's Powell confirmed a Fed rate cut at the end of this month by warning that uncertainties since the June FOMC had "dimmed the outlook" and that muted price pressures may be more persistent.  It ignited an equity and bond market rally (bullish steepening) while the dollar was sold.

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FX Daily, June 27: Ready. Set. Wait.

Overview: The approaching month/quarter-end and the G20 meeting dominate considerations. Although the S&P 500 closed on its lows for the third consecutive session yesterday, Asia Pacific equities liked the apparent increase in the prospect of a tariff freeze between the US and China and the pullback in the Japanese yen.

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FX Daily, June 13: Financial Statecraft or Whack-a-Mole

Overview: After roiling the markets by threatening escalating tariffs on Mexico, US President Trump has threatened China that if Xi does not meet him and return to the positions that the US claims it had previously, he will through on imposing tariffs to the remaining goods the US buys from China that have not already been penalized. 

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FX Daily, April 30: Dollar Pares more Gains as EMU GDP Surprise

Overview: The S&P 500 set a new record high and close yesterday, but the lift to global markets was not strong enough to overcome the disappointing Chinese PMI.  Although Chinese equities traded higher on ideas that the news will spur additional stimulative measures, other Asian markets were mixed. 

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FX Daily, July 30: Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer

The week's big events lie ahead. It is seen as the last important week before the dog days of summer when many participants will take holidays. The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes tomorrow. Speculation that the BOJ is looking for ways to tweak its program continues to spur a small taper-lite tantrum in Tokyo.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Daily, March 29: Bonds and Stocks are Firm, While the Greenback Consolidates Upticks

The choppy US equity session yesterday, ultimately ending with modest losses as the tech sector remained under pressure, has been shrugged off in Asia and Europe, where modest gains have been seen. The dollar is little changed after yesterday's gains, and bonds are mostly firmer.

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FX Daily, February 27: Markets Tread Water; Powell is Awaited

The capital markets seem unusually subdued. The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer, except against the euro and Swiss franc among the majors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed to eke out a small gain (0.2%), for a third advancing session, without the help of China, Taiwan, Korea or India. It was really a Japanese story. The Nikkei rallied 1.1%, while excluding Japan the MSCI benchmark was off 0.25%.

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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

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FX Daily, January 30: Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild Turn Around Tuesday but suggests that the market psychology that has driven the dollar lower and yields higher persistently since mid-December have not been broken.

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FX Daily, January 16: Dollar Given a Reprieve

After extending its recent slide yesterday, which the US markets were on holiday, the dollar is firmer against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies. There does not seem to be macroeconomic developments behind the dollar's stabilization, and the gains are quite minor, suggesting a pause in the downtrend rather than a reversal at this juncture.

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FX Daily, December 13: Greenback Quiet Ahead of Five Central Bank Meetings

The Federal Reserve gets the balling rolling today with the FOMC meeting, which is most likely to deliver the third hike of the year. Tomorrow, four European central banks meet: Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the ECB. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose nearly 0.3%, though Japanese and Indian shares were lower. In Europe, the Down Jones Stoxx 600 is paring yesterday's gains (-0.2%) led by utilities and telecom. Consumer discretion and financials are...

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FX Daily, November 29: Sterling Charges Ahead on Brexit Hopes

Prospects of a deal with the EU has sent sterling to its best level in two months against the dollar. It reached $1.3430 in early European turnover. It had sunk to nearly $1.3220 yesterday as European markets were closing, which was a four-day low. It is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4%. With today's gains has met our retracement target near $1.3415. The momentum appears to give it potential toward $1.3500 in the...

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FX Daily, November 14: Euro Rides High After German GDP

Sterling is trading in the lower end of yesterday's range and has been confined to about a quarter a cent on either side of $1.31. On the other hand, the euro has pushed a bit through GBP0.8950 to reach its best level since October 26. Sweden also reported softer than expected October inflation.

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FX Daily, October 30: Dollar Slips in Consolidative Activity

The markets are mixed, mostly responding to idiosyncratic developments, as the week's large events loom ahead. These BOJ, BOE, and FOMC meetings, eurozone flash CPI and US jobs reports. In addition, US President Trump is expected to announce his nomination of the next Fed chair, and the initial House tax bill will be unveiled.

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FX Daily, October 13: Sterling Extends Yesterday’s Recovery; US Data Awaited

The EU's leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly $1.3120. The willingness to discuss a two-year transition period spurred sterling's recovery. After trading on both sides of Wednesdays, it closed on its highs was a bullish technical signal and there has been follow-through buying...

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FX Daily, September 28: Greenback Consolidates while Yields Continue to March Higher

The US dollar is consolidating inside yesterday's ranges against the euro and yen while extending its gains against sterling and the dollar-bloc currencies. The sell-off in the US debt market continues to drag global yields higher. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 2.01% on September 8 and now, nearly three weeks later, is near 2.35%. It had finished last week at 2.25%.

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