Tag Archive: franc

A Golden Renaissance, Report 25 Nov 2018

2018-11-26

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2018-11-26

Gold and Silver Price
There is the freedom of speech battle, with the forces of darkness advancing all over. For example, in Pakistan, there are killings of journalists. Saudi Arabia apparently had journalist Khashoggi killed. New Zealand now can force travellers to provide the password to their phones so the government can go through all your data, presumably including your gmail, Onedrive, Evernote, and WhatsApp.

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What Can Kill a Useless Currency, Report 28 Oct 2018

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Gold and Silver Price
There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it / . When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency. Redemptions Balanced With Deposits No national...

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You Can’t Eat Gold, Report 14 Oct 2018

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Gold and Silver Price
“You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing. This gives us an idea. Let’s tie three facts together. One, you can’t eat gold. Two, gold is in backwardation in Switzerland. And three, speculation is a bet on the price action.

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Quantitative Easing, its Indicators and the Swiss Franc

bernanke gold chf, dollar
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis and, even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of bad US economic data and/or Quantitative Easing (QE). Risk-friendly investors move into risky assets like stocks or currencies of emerging markets, while risk-averse investors fear inflation and buy inflation-resistant assets like Swiss francs.

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Research on SNB & CHF



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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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Pictet on the sudden EUR/CHF Appreciation

2013-01-19

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2013-01-19

While we blamed FX traders, that were waiting months for some good European news to push down the CHF, Pictet finds some more explanations.

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15 Years of Bubbles, Busts and Failed Monetary Policy

the stock market and dot com bubble


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History of SNB monetary policy assessments vs. economic data

Development of Swiss GDP vs. GNI Gross National Income Gross Domestic Product
History of SNB monetary policy assessments vs. the Swiss gross national product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI).

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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

2012-12-27

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2012-12-27

Quantitative Easing Mechanisms
The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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Are German Bunds finally heading for the big slide ?

2012-09-14

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2012-09-14

German BOBL Future Sept 14
Citibank judges that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not need a peg anymore. The EUR/CHF exchange rate would be now over 1.20 even if exposed to the free market. Yesterday we showed that the upward move in the EUR/CHF is just the behavior of some euphoric Forex traders. In the meantime we see a completely … Continue reading »

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

2012-09-03

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2012-09-03

FM TN G3D Chess1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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The Swiss television interview with Thomas Jordan, or was it Leonid Brezhnev ?

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

   Today Thomas Jordan gave a quick interview in the Swiss television. Everything was so well prepared and as sterilized. Thomas Jordan learned all answers by heart and was answered the questions about one second after the question was asked. It reminded me of an interview in Soviet television with former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Each …

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SNB only major central bank missing at Jackson Hole, are important SNB decisions looming ?

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
  The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble  The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …

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SNB Results: SNB poised for 10 billion CHF quarterly profit

2012-07-26

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2012-07-26

jordan vs. ackermann was it a pyhrrus Victory ? snb results q2/2012
  On July 31st the Swiss National Bank will publish interim results for the second quarter 2012. Already now we offer  an estimate to our readers. Our estimate does not cover the central bank’s Forex trading results, they are difficult to estimate. A central bank is not a day trader, therefore the influence should be limited. …

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German Schatz turns negative again

2012-07-18

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2012-07-18

Government bond yields under 1% July 18th
After the first time End May, the German Schatz turns negative: German June 2014 Schatz Average Yield -0.06% vs 0.10% on June 20 Swiss Eidgenossen 2yrs still at -0.4%

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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German constitutional court injunction decision on ESM and the potential referendum

2012-07-10

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2012-07-10

Gruppenfoto Zweiter Senat beim Bundesverfassungsgericht in Karlsruhe
What is the injunction procedure of the German constitutional court exactly about. What are the arguments of the Anti-ESM and the Pro-ESM fractions ?

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At EUR/CHF 1.10 SNB with 31 bln. loss, each Swiss losing 150 francs per week

2012-07-06

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2012-07-06

mass francs
The Swiss National Bank would realize a loss of 31 bln. francs, if it accepted a EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.10 instead 1.20 and if we assume that the Swissie also appreciates against the dollar and other currencies

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