Tag Archive: Eurozone Consumer Price Index

FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.

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Consensus Inflation (Again)

Why did Mario Draghi appeal to NIRP in June 2014? After all, expectations at the time were for a strengthening recovery not just in Europe but all over the world. There were some concerns lingering over currency “irregularities” in 2013 but primarily related to EM’s and not the EU which had emerged from re-recession. The consensus at that time was full recovery not additional “stimulus.” From Bloomberg in January 2014:

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FX Daily, March 31: Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year. The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.

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FX Daily, March 16: Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike. News that the populist-nationalist Freedom Party did worse than expected in the Dutch elections also helped underpin the euro, which rose to nearly $1.0750 from a low close to $1.06 yesterday.

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Economic Dissonance, Too

Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony.

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FX Daily, March 02: Dollar Remains Bid

The US dollar is bid against the major currencies as the combination the increased expectation of a Fed rate hike and the President's commitment to fiscal stimulus buoys sentiment. The dollar-bloc, where speculators in the futures market, have grown a net long position, are leading the move.

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FX Daily, February 22: Euro Meltdown Continues

February has been cruel to the euro. Of the sixteen sessions this month, counting today, the euro has risen in four, and two of those were last week. Its new four-day slide pushed it below $1.05 for the first time in six weeks as European markets were opening. The $1.0560 area that was broken yesterday, and provided a cap today is 61.8% retracement objective of last month's rally.

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FX Daily, January 31: Markets Look for Solid Footing

The immigration imbroglio in the United States is being cited in various accounts for the price action, including yesterday's drop in the S&P 500, where the intraday loss was the largest since before the election. The drama is also being blamed for the dollar's losses yesterday, which it is consolidating today.

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FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Gives Back Most of Yellen-Inspired Gains

While the US 10-year yield is unchanged, the dollar is consolidating its gains against the yen in a relatively narrow range of about half a big figure below JPY115.00. It has seen its gains pared more against the euro and sterling, where most of Yellen-inspired gains have been unwound. Sterling found support near $1.2250 and was bid up to $1.2335 by early in the European sessions.

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FX Daily, January 18: Markets Stabilize, Awaiting Fresh Cues

The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's bruising. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed. After hard exit signals from the UK government sent sterling down from $1.2430 on January 5 and 6, to below $1.20 at the start of the week, the pound rallied back to almost $1.2430 yesterday amid "sell the rumor buy the fact" activity.

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FX Daily, January 04: Consolidation in Capital Markets

GBP/CHF rates have jumped during the first official day of trading in 2017, with the pair hitting 1.2657 at today’s high. The Pound gained support this morning following positive UK Manufacturing data, which came in well above market expectation. This increased market confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has ultimately benefited as a result, gaining a cent on the CHF.

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FX Daily, December 16: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of the Weekend, Dollar Consolidates Gains

Some mild position squaring pressures are evident ahead of the weekend, and for many market participants the year is coming to an end. Outside of the BOJ meeting next week, the calendar turns light and markets are moving into holiday mode. The Dollar Index is seeing this week's gains trimmed, but it is up nearly 1.4% this week. Although the election has seen the dollar's gains accelerate, the current leg up began in early October. The Dollar...

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FX Daily, November 30: Renewed OPEC Hopes and Month End Featured

Rates for buying Swiss Francs dollars remain incredibly subdued post Brexit but there has been a general improvement over the last month. Rates for the moment appear to have found support over 1.24 for GBP CHF and this has largely come about following the Trump US presidential election victory. Despite a leaked government document titled Have cake and eat it, the markets and sterling were largely unphased.

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FX Daily, November 17: Consolidation Gives Dollar Heavier Tone

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today as its recent run is consolidated. The euro is trying to snap the eight-day slide that brought it to nearly $1.0665 yesterday, the lows for the year. It is almost as if participant saw the proximity of last year's lows ($1.0460-$1.0525) and decided to pause, perhaps to wait for additional developments, such a Fed Chief's Yellen's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

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FX Daily, October 31: Respite for Market Nerves Lifts Peso, Rand, and US Dollar

he latest US political news before roiled thin pre-weekend markets, but cooler heads and more of them are prevailing today. Trump's fortune in the polls had bottomed prior to the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails and the national polls have narrowed.

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Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

CPI UK CPI US, CPI Eurozone
Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

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FX Daily Rates, October 17: Dollar Starts Week Narrowly Mixed, while Bonds and Stocks Retreat

The US dollar is consolidating in relatively narrow trading ranges. Participants appear to be waiting for fresh incentives, while the recent rise yields continue and equities have begun the new week on a soft note. Yellen spoke before the weekend, and her explicit willingness to tolerate higher inflation pushed yields higher, while not deterring expectations for a hike in December.

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FX Daily, September 30: SNB Intervenes to Polish Q3 Results

True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note. On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona. Global equities are trading heavily, and investors' angst is lending support to bond markets.

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FX Daily, August 31: Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead

The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month. The tone is consolidative as the market awaits assurances that the jobs growth this month has been sufficiently strong as to keep the prospects of a September meeting still alive.

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