Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Daily, January 13: Dismal Data Undercuts Sterling and Boosts Chances of a Rate Cut

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

Overview: There are two big stories today. The first is the large scale protests in Iran after the government admits to accidentally shooting down the commercial airliner amid the fog of war. The market impact seems minimal but fueling speculation that this, coupled with the economic hardship related to the US embargo, could topple the regime. Second, the UK reported that the economy unexpectedly contracted in November.

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 8: Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

2020-01-08

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2020-01-08

The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

2020-01-07

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2020-01-07

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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FX Daily, January 6: Markets Struggling to Stabilize to Start the New Week

2020-01-06

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2020-01-06

Overview: The global capital markets have yet to stabilize amid heightened geopolitical tension. Even though the US stock market finished last week off its lows, the sell-off continued in the Asia Pacific region. Japan's markets re-opened after an extended holiday, and the yen, at three-month highs, saw the Nikkei sell-off nearly 2%. Several markets in the region lost over 1%, including Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Indonesia. Europe's Dow Jones...

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FX Daily, January 03: Geopolitics Saps Risk Appetite

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened "severe retaliation" for the US attacked that killed an important head of a force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, reports indicate that North Korea's Kim Jong Un is no longer pledging to halt its nuclear weapons testing and has threatened to unveil a new weapon. Meanwhile, Turkish forces have reportedly entered Libya.

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FX Daily, January 02: Equities Start New Year with a Pop

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

Overview:  Equities have begun New Year like, well, last year, with most Asia Pacific markets advancing, led by more than 1% gains in China, Hong Kong, and Thailand.  Only South Korea and Indonesian markets fell.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% in late morning turnover.  US shares are trading higher as well, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 0.6%.

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FX Daily, December 27: Equities Rally While the Dollar Slumps into the Weekend

2019-12-27

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2019-12-27

Overview:  Equities are finishing the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, encouraged by strong holiday internet sales in the US.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced except China and Thailand, while Japanese markets were mixed after weak industrial output and retail sales.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive week.

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FX Daily, December 19: Whiff of Inflation in the Air

2019-12-19

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2019-12-19

It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year. The US yield curve (2-10 year) has been steepening after being inverted for a few days in August, and now at nearly 29 bp, also is new highs for the year.

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FX Daily, December 18: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

2019-12-18

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2019-12-18

Overview: The capital markets have turned quiet as the year-end positioning drives prices in lieu of fresh developments. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were narrowly mixed. The smaller markets in Asia performed better than the large bourses of Japan, China, and Korea, which eased. European equities are off to a firm start, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating near the record high set Monday.

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FX Daily, December 17: Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins

2019-12-17

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2019-12-17

Overview: Efforts by a UK Prime Minister emboldened by a strong electoral victory to ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had returned to where it closed before the results were known near $1.3160.

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FX Daily, December 16: China Data Surprises to the Upside while Europe’s Manufacturing PMI Disappoints

2019-12-16

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2019-12-16

Overview: Despite better than expected Chinese data, and last week's investor-friendly developments, Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Australia led the advancing bourses with a 1.6% gain, its largest for the year despite the government revising down growth and wages. China, Taiwan, and Indian markets also moved higher.

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FX Daily, December 13: Stunning Tory Victory and US-China Trade Boosts Risk Assets

2019-12-13

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2019-12-13

Overview: The combination of a US-China trade deal and exit polls showing the Tories securing a majority in the House of Commons boosted risk assets, sent sterling flying, and the euro sharply higher. Separately, the Fed stepped up its efforts to make as smooth as possible funding over the turn of the year.

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FX Daily, December 12: Enguard Lagarde

2019-12-12

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2019-12-12

With the FOMC meeting delivered no surprises, attention turns to the ECB meeting as the UK go to the polls. Lagarde will hold her first press conference as ECB president today, and it will naturally command attention. Equities are advancing today, and tech appears to be leading the way. In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea rallied more than 1%, while the Hang Seng gapped higher to almost its best level in three weeks.

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FX Daily, December 11: Sterling Holds Firm Despite Tighter Poll

2019-12-11

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2019-12-11

Overview: The capital markets continue to tread water as investors await this week's key events. The first, the FOMC meeting concludes later today. Tomorrow features the UK election, where the race appears to have tightened, and Lagarde's first ECB meeting at the helm. Global equities continue consolidating the recent gains. Asia Pacific equity markets were mostly higher.

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FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire

2019-12-09

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2019-12-09

The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for the last three sessions.

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FX Daily, December 6: And Now for the Employment Report

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

Overview:  Asia Pacific equities closed higher today, with India being a notable exception.  Hong Kong and South Korea led with 1% rallies.  For the week, the MSCI index for the region advanced to snap a three-week decline.  European and US bourses have not fared as well.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is paring this week's losses, but it is still off around 0.9% through the European morning session. 

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FX Daily, December 5: Sterling Sent Higher as Market Discounts Next Week’s Election

2019-12-05

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2019-12-05

Overview: Global equity markets have resumed their climb after a wobble at the end of last week and earlier this week. A strong recovery in the S&P 500 on Tuesday signaled yesterday's strong advance that left a bullish one-day island low in its wake. MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline today with nearly all the market with the notable exception of South Korea advanced.

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