Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

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FX Daily, May 17: US Rates Edge Higher, while Dollar Turns Mixed

The Britsh pound was a cent from yesterday's lows on a press report that claimed the UK cabinet had agreed on seeking to stay in the customs union with the EU beyond the two-year transition period. The report suggested that the UK wanted to still negotiate other trade deals, which would seem to be a Trojan Horse.

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FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

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FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

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FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

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FX Daily, May 09: Oil Prices Surge and Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro's losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro's gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and...

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FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

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FX Daily, May 07: Greenback Starts Week on Firm Note

The US dollar recovered from a softer tone in early Asia and is higher against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies as North American market prepare to start the new week. The news stream is light and investors remain on edge geopolitical concerns remain elevated. Oil prices are extending gains, and WTI is above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. Alongside an inverse yield curve, a jump in oil prices typically...

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FX Daily, May 04: US Jobs-Not the Driver it Once Was

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously.

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FX Daily, May 03: Respite to Dollar Short Squeeze

The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up more than twice as expected (2.6% vs. 1.0%). Today is the first session since April 19 that the Australian dollar has risen above the previous day's high. Initial resistance is seen near $0.7550 and then $0.7580.

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FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar

There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar's dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but the yen (~2.6%), the Norwegian krone (~1.6%) and sterling ~0.9%). It is virtually flat against the euro.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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FX Daily, April 26: Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi

The euro made a marginal new low early in European turnover and held barely above the spike low on March 1 to $1.2155. So far, today is the first session since January 11 that the euro has not traded above $1.22. The euro stabilized as the European morning progressed, but there seems to be little real buying interest it ahead of Draghi's press conference following the ECB decision.

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FX Daily, April 24: Stalled US Rates Steal Greenback’s Thunder

The US dollar looked set to launch a new leg higher, but rates stalled, which in turn is unleashing some mild corrective pressures. The US two-year yield has been unable to extend its increase beyond 2.50%, while the 10-year rate has stalled within a whisker of the 3% psychological threshold. The greenback's momentum did indeed carry it, but by late morning on the Continent, a consolidative tone was evident.

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FX Daily, April 23: Rising Rates Help Extend Dollar Gains

The new week has begun much like last week ended, with rising rates helping to extend the dollar's recent gains. The US 10-year yield is flirting with the 3.0% threshold. The two-year yield is firmer, and, like in the second half of last week, the US curve is becoming a little less flat. The market, as we had anticipated, was not so impressed with North Korea's measures, and Korea's Kospi edged lowed, and the region-leading KOSDAQ fell a little...

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FX Daily, April 20: The Greenback is Alive

The US dollar is set to finish the week on a firm note. It reflects rising US yields, where the 10-year is above 2.90% for the first time since February and the widening two-year different between the US and Germany, which is holding just below 300 bp. It is the fourth consecutive advancing session for the Dollar Index, which is near a two-week high.

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FX Daily, April 19: Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus

A light news stream and less trade rhetoric lend the equity markets a positive impulse amid a strong US earnings season while leaving the dollar narrowly mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% and is up 1% for the week with one session left. It would be the second consecutive weekly advance. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has edged higher for a third consecutive session. It is up about 0.7% for the week, and if sustained, would extend the advance...

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FX Daily, April 18: Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against major and most emerging market currencies. Sterling, which has become a market darling, hit an air pocket after softer than expected CPI. UK headline CPI rose 0.1% in March, while the market expected a 0.3% increase. The recently introduced preferred measure, CPIH slipped to 2.3% from 2.5%, the weakest in a year.

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FX Daily, April 17: Dollar Recovers from Further Selling as Turnaround Tuesday Unfolds

After the retreating in the North American session yesterday, despite a rebound in retail sales after three-months of declines, the greenback has been sold further in Europe and Asia. The euro edged through last week's high near $1.24, and sterling rose through the January high to reach its best level since the mid-2016 referendum. Sterling rose through $1.4375 before the easing after the employment report.

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