Tag Archive: EUR/CHF

FX Daily, August 10: The Dollar Muscles Higher as Turkey Melts Down

The US dollar has surged. The main impetus comes from the dramatic slide in the Turkish lira. After moving above TRY5.0 yesterday, it reached TRY6.30 today before stabilizing a little below TRY6.0 as the European morning progressed. The trigger seemed to be the lack of credibility of the government's response as investors await officials to elaborate on the outline of the "new economic model" provided yesterday.

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FX Daily, August 09: Sterling Remains Under Pressure, while the Greenback Firms Broadly

The global capital markets are mostly quiet. US sanctions on Turkey and Russia are pressuring their respective currencies, and the New Zealand dollar has slumped nearly 1.5% on the back of a dovish hold by the central bank. The Kiwi is at 2.5-year lows near $0.6650.

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FX Daily, August 08: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way, While Dollar and Yen Catch a Bid

Fears that the UK could leave the EU in a little over six months without an agreement continues to drag sterling lower. Recall that over the weekend, the UK's International Trade Minister Fox suggested there was a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit.

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FX Daily, August 07: Turn Around Tuesday for the Greenback

The US dollar is pulling back today after yesterday's advance. All the major currencies are higher and even the Turkish lira, which plunged nearly 5% yesterday to cap a six-day slide, is trading firmer today (~@TRY5.25). The dollar's losses are modest and appear corrective in nature.

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FX Daily, July 30: Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer

The week's big events lie ahead. It is seen as the last important week before the dog days of summer when many participants will take holidays. The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes tomorrow. Speculation that the BOJ is looking for ways to tweak its program continues to spur a small taper-lite tantrum in Tokyo.

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FX Daily, July 26: Equities like EU-US Trade Truce more than the Euro

The markets generated a collective sigh when Juncker and Trump announced that there would be no new tariffs while new trade negotiations took place.  This was particularly important because Trump reportedly wanted to press ahead with a 25% tariff on car imports.  It was also announced that the EU would buy more soy and liquid natural gas from the US. 

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FX Daily, July 18: Greenback Extends Gains-For Now

After softening in Europe yesterday, the dollar recovered in the North American session with the help of assurances by Fed Chair Powell who reaffirmed the path gradual path despite clear recognition that tariffs threaten wages and growth.  The greenback has extended those gains today and is higher against all the emerging market currencies, expected the Turkish lira, which is slightly firmer.

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FX Daily, July 17: Dollar on Back Foot Ahead of Powell

The US dollar eased in Asia session and the European morning. The greenback had appeared technically vulnerable, and the economic news stream is light. Sterling, unlike most of the other major currencies, remains within yesterday's range. Yesterday's high, a little above $1.3290, maybe reinforced a little today by the GBP245 mln $1.33 option that is expiring. Brexit concerns may also be acting as a drag.

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FX Daily, July 13: Trump Trips Sterling, but Greenback Enjoys Broad Gains

President Trump weighed in on Brexit and spurred the largest drop in sterling in more than two weeks.  Trump encouraged Brexit, but he indicated he "would have done it much differently" and that he "actually told Theresa May how to do it, but she did not listen."  Trump cautioned that May's plan would mean it would still be too close to the EU and this would "kill" a free-trade deal with the US.  In effect, Trump backed the harder Brexit camp...

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FX Daily, July 12: Dollar Remains Firm as Risk Returns

The US dollar rallied yesterday as the escalating trade tensions between the world's top two economies choked off the animal spirits and a marked down in equities and risk assets.  It remains firm today even as risk has come back.  Equities are mostly higher today and bonds lower.  Emerging market currencies, from Turkey to South Africa are firmer, as is the Chinese yuan. 

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FX Daily, July 09: Possibility of a Soft Brexit Excites Sterling (too Early?)

After a little wobble, sterling has responded favorably to the resignation of the UK Brexit team led by David Davis. The idea is that a path to a softer Brexit is good for sterling.  In fairness, it is a bit early to reach this conclusion, and the softer dollar tone puts wind in sterling's sale. There is a GBP244 mln sterling option at $1.3375 that expires today. The June highs were set in the $1.3450-$1.3470 area.  

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FX Daily, June 22: BOE Spurs Dollar Pullback

The Bank of England's hawkish hold yesterday, spurred by three dissents in favor of an immediate hike, changed the near-term dynamics in the foreign exchange market.  Both the euro and sterling fell to new lows for the year before reversing higher.  Yesterday's gains are being extended today. 

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FX Daily, June 21: Dollar Driven Higher

The half-hearted and shallow attempts by the currencies to recover appear to be emboldening the dollar bulls today,  The greenback is higher against all major and emerging market currencies today.  Demand for dollars is strong enough to offset the broader risk-off environment that is pulling stocks and core yields lower that is usually supportive of the yen. 

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FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

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FX Daily, May 17: US Rates Edge Higher, while Dollar Turns Mixed

The Britsh pound was a cent from yesterday's lows on a press report that claimed the UK cabinet had agreed on seeking to stay in the customs union with the EU beyond the two-year transition period. The report suggested that the UK wanted to still negotiate other trade deals, which would seem to be a Trojan Horse.

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FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

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FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

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FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

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FX Daily, May 09: Oil Prices Surge and Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro's losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro's gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and...

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FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

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