Tag Archive: consumption

Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review: April 2019

The economic data reported over the last month managed to confirm both that the economy is slowing and that there seems little reason to fear recession at this point. The slowdown is mostly a manufacturing affair – and some of that is actually a fracking slowdown – but consumption has also slowed.

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The Duality of Money, Report 10 Mar

This is a pair of photographs taken by Keith Weiner, for a high school project. It seemed a fitting picture for the dual nature of money, the dual nature of wood both as logs to be consumed and dimensional lumber to be used to construct buildings.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that the Fed may ultimately need to go past neutral.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Ignore The Idiot

Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time dissecting it.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Attention Shoppers

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we’ve been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios are once again rising – from already elevated levels.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The Return of Economic Ennui

The economic reports released since the last of these updates was generally not all that bad but the reports considered more important were disappointing. And it should be noted that economic reports lately have generally been worse than expected which, if you believe the market to be fairly efficient, is what really matters.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the last update 3 weeks ago. In other words, there’s no reason...

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Switzerland GDP Q1 2016: +0.1 percent QoQ, +0.7 percent YoY

Q/Q GDP growth: +0.1%, YoY GDP growth: +0.7%. Until 2014, Swiss GDP was driven by net exports: Exports were rising more quickly than imports, which improved GDP. Positive change in the trade balance in goods: +8.1% YoY exports, +1.4% YoY imports in Q1/2016. Negative change in the trade balance for services: export +2.0%, import +6.7% YoY In 2015 and in Q1/2016 the main GDP drivers were consumption (+1.3% YoY in Q1/2016) and investment...

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Gross domestic product in the 1st quarter 2016

Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the 1st quarter of 2016.* GDP was underpinned by consumption expenditure from private households and investments in construction and equipment but curbed slightly by government consumption. On the production side, the picture was mixed: whilst financial services and the hotel and catering industry saw a decline, value added in manufacturing,

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