Tag Archive: China Retail Sales

Retail sales are an aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, typically based on a data sampling that is extrapolated to model an entire country. Measuring consumer demand for finished goods, retail sales help gauge the pulse of an economy and its projected path toward expansion or contraction. As a leading macroeconomic indicator, healthy retail sales figures typically elicit positive movements in equity markets.

Questions Persist About China Trade

2017-06-17

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2017-06-17

Chinese trade statistics were for May 2017 better than expected by economists, but on the export side questions remain as to their accuracy. Earlier this year discrepancies between estimates first published by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), those you find reported in the media, and what is captured by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), backed up by data from the Ministry of Commerce, became noticeable.

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FX Daily, June 14: FOMC and upcoming SNB

2017-06-14

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2017-06-14

The Euro has risen by 0.37% to 1.0901 CHF. This is a typical movement ahead of the SNB meeting tomorrow. This movement is probably unrelated to the Fed rate hike, given that the USD/JPY has fallen. It makes sense to go long CHF against JPY, if you bet on an inactive SNB. Inactive SNB would mean that the central bank will not speak about stronger FX Interventions or about lower rates.

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FX Daily, May 15: Softer Dollar and Yen to Start the Week

2017-05-15

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2017-05-15

The US dollar has opened the week softer against the major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The disappointing US inflation and retail sales data before the weekend have not been shrugged off, even though the US 10-year yield is a little higher and expectations for a Fed hike next month continue to be elevated.

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Assessing China’s Economic Risks

2017-04-18

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2017-04-18

China Industrial Production 2009-2017
First quarter GDP in China rose 6.9%, better than expected and above the government’s target (6.5%) for 2017. It stands to reason, however, that if Communist officials thought they could get 6.9% to last for the whole year they would have made it their target, especially since 6.5% would be less than the GDP growth rate for 2016 (6.7%). In only that one way is China’s GDP statistic meaningful.

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FX Daily, April 17: Markets Trying to Stabilize in Holiday-Thin Activity

2017-04-17

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2017-04-17

Financial centers in Europe are closed for the extended Easter holiday. Australian and New Zealand markets were also closed. The drop in US 10-year Treasury yields in early Asia, with a brief push below 2.20%, appears to have kept the dollar under pressure. As the North American market prepares to open, the dollar is softer against the all major currencies and many emerging market currencies.

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China Starts 2017 With Chronic, Not Stable And Surely Not ‘Reflation’

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

China Industrial Production 1999 - 2017
The first major economic data of 2017 from China was highly disappointing to expectations of either stability or hopes for actual acceleration. On all counts for the combined January-February period, the big three statistics missed: Industrial Production was 6.3%, Fixed Asset Investment 8.9%, and Retail Sales just 9.5%.

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FX Daily, March 14: Brexit Takes Fresh Toll on Sterling, While Dollar Firms more Broadly

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

UK Prime Minister May got the parliamentary approval the courts ruled was necessary to formally trigger Article 50. It is not clear what UK she will lead out the EU. Scotland is beginning the legal proceedings to hold another referendum on independence. There is some talk that Northern Ireland, which voted to remain, might be allowed to rejoin the Republic of Ireland.

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FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day

2017-01-20

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2017-01-20

inauguration
The dollar peaked against the yuan two days after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in the middle of last month. We argue that that is when the market correction began, not at the turn of the calendar. Despite claims that China's currency is dropping like a rock, it has actually risen for the fifth consecutive week. That is the longest rising streak for the yuan since early 2016.

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FX Daily, December 13: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience

2016-12-13

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2016-12-13

FX Performance, December 13 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. The dollar finished yesterday's North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited. After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. Initial potential seemed to extend toward JPY114.30, but dollar buyers reemerged near JPY114.75, and it rose back the middle of the two-day range...

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FX Daily, November 14: Dollar Steps Up to Start Week

2016-11-14

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2016-11-14

FX Performance, November 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar rally that moved into a higher gear in the second half of last week has begun the new week with a bang. It is up against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies. Even sterling, which last week, managed to eke out modest gains against the greenback is under pressure today.

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FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

FX Performance, October 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States.

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FX Daily, September 13: Much Noise, Weak Signal

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

The last ECB meeting and Dragh's hawkish comments is for us the main reason of the euro strength, this despite stronger Swiss GDP growth.

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FX Daily, July 15: Sterling and Yen Remain Key Drivers in FX

2016-07-15

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2016-07-15

The US dollar is broadly mixed against the major currencies. The Swiss franc's 0.25% gain puts it at the top of the board, after sterling's earlier gains were largely unwound in late-morning turnover. The yen is the weakest major; extending its loss by 0.6%, to bring the weekly decline to more than 5%. The pre-referendum result high for the dollar was near JPY106.85. Today's high has been about JPY106.30. In emerging markets, we note that the...

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China and Japan Chart Update

A chart-up from China and Japan. Growth of Chinese industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment is at lows not seen since the Asian financial crisis. The Yuan is falling. Economic data from Japan is not a lot better.

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Weak CHF during the Fat Years of the Joseph Cycle

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse Swiss investors will buy more foreign assets, not only the central bank and speculators. Different crises have passed in the three parts of the world, the U.S. subprime, the euro crisis and the Emerging...

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Collective Sigh of Relief in Capital Markets or Turnaround Tuesday?

2016-01-19

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2016-01-19

The relentless pounding that investors suffered in the first two weeks of the year has subsided.  It is too early to have much confidence that a turn is at hand.  By various measures, the sell-off had stretched the technical condition.     I...

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Fast CHF and Gold Price Movements

2013-11-01

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2013-11-01

Our CHF and Gold News Bar on our home page explains daily CHF and gold price movements based on the most important fundamental indicators in a few sentences. Keep in mind that the only Swiss fundamental data that is able to move the CHF must come from the SNB and from Swiss inflation data – … Continue reading »

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Week October 14 to 18, A Close Look at China’s Fundamental Data

2013-10-21

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2013-10-21

  Weekly Overview of FX Rates Movements The week was driven by the following factors: Solid Chinese economic data including a 7.8% rise in GDP. The end of the debt ceiling debate, at least for now. The expectation by the Fed member Evans that the government shutdown has delayed Fed tapering. San Francisco Fed’s Williams …

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Jim O’Neill’s Bullish BRICS Outlook until 2020 and our Critics

MSCI Emerging Markets
Perfect charts by Goldman's Jim O'Neill that help to understand the former and future growth of different emerging, "growth markets", the BRICS. We criticise his partially over-optimistic views.

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Marc Faber argues against Jim Rogers

2012-10-05

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2012-10-05

  The most famous investors Marc Faber and Jim Rogers were in a common interview on CNBC. Marc Faber is of our position, whereas Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities.   Marc points out that China’s bench mark stock index the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index was at 6100 in 2007 even as it … Continue reading...

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