Tag Archive: $CAD
FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Crushed as Government Shutdown Looms
The US dollar is broadly lower as the momentum feeds on itself. Asia is leading the way. The Japanese yen, Taiwanese dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, and South Korean won are all around 0.45% higher. Asian shares also managed to shrug off the weakness seen in the US yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%. It is the sixth consecutive weekly gain. The dollar's drop comes as US yields reach levels now seen in year. The 10-year yield is at its...
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FX Daily, January 18: Currencies Consolidate After Chop Fest
The US dollar rallied in the North American afternoon yesterday and the timing coincided with the release of the Fed's Beige Book that saw several districts report wage and price pressures. The US 10-year yield moved toward toward 2.60%, and helped by speculation that as US companies repatriate earnings kept abroad that they may have to liquidate the investments, some of which are thought to be in Treasuries.
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FX Daily, January 17: Dollar Stabilizes After Marginal New Lows
After a shallow bounce in Asia and Europe yesterday, the dollar slipped lower in North American yesterday. Asia was happy to extend those dollar losses, and the greenback was pushed to marginal new lower in Asia, but has come back in the European session. The next result is a choppy but flattish consolidation compared with last week's closing prices.
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FX Daily, January 11: Capital Markets Calmer, Greenback Consolidates
As market participants were just getting their sea legs back after the start of the year, it was hit by a one-two punch of ideas that BOJ policy was turning less accommodative and that Chinese officials were wary of adding to their Treasury holdings. Then late yesterday, a news wire reported that Canada suspected the US was going to withdraw from NAFTA.
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FX Daily, January 09: Dollar Correction Extended
The US dollar's upside correction that began before the weekend has been extended in Asia and Europe today. The main exception is the Japanese yen. The yen's modest gains have been registered despite the firmness in US rates and continued advance in equities; both factors associated with a weaker Japanese currency.
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FX Weekly Preview: Accommodative Officials and Synchronized Upturn Drive Markets
The investment climate is being shaped by two powerful forces. First is the very accommodative policy stance. This includes the United States, where despite delivering the fifth rate hike in the cycle, adjusted by headline CPI, remains negative. The balance sheet has begun being reduced, financial conditions in the US are easier now than a year ago.
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Headline US Jobs Disappoint, but Earnings as Expected
The headline US non-farm payrolls disappointed, rising by 148k instead of the consensus of 180k-200k. However, the other details were largely as expected and are unlikely to change views about the trajectory of Fed policy or the general direction of markets. It is a very much steady as she goes story.
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FX Daily, January 04: Greenback Continues to Consolidate Recent Losses
The US dollar is sporting a softer profile across the board, though remaining largely in the ranges seen over the past couple of sessions. At the same time, the news stream suggests that the global synchronized growth cycle strengthened late last year and is bound to carry over into the New Year.
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The Past is Not Passed: 2017 Spills into 2018
The New Year may have begun in fact, but in practice, full participation may return only after the release of US employment data on January 5. The macroeconomic and policy tables have been set, though interpolating from the Overnight Index Swaps market, there is 45% chance the Bank of Canada hikes rates at its policy meeting near the middle of the month.
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FX Daily, January 2: Dollar Slump Accelerates
The US dollar's slump seen in the final two weeks of 2017 is carried into today's activity. The greenback's sell-off extends to the emerging market currencies as well. The Hungarian forint is the strongest rising nearly 1%, ostensibly helped by the euro approaching last year's high. However, our sense that fumes and momentum more than fresh news is pushing the dollar down is illustrated by the Korean won. It has gained nearly 0.9% today even though...
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FX Daily, December 27: What Happened on Boxing Day?
There were several developments on the day after Christmas, while many markets remained closed and investors sidelined. One of the most important developments was the euro's complete recovery from the flash crash of nearly three percent on Christmas day in the North American time zone.
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FX Daily, December 19: US Equities Set Pace, While Greenback Consolidates Inside Monday’s Ranges
US tax changes appear to be providing fuel for the year-end advance that has carried the major indices to new record highs. The coattails are a bit short, and while global equity markets are firm, they are unable to match the strength of US. Despite a heavier tone in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged higher for the second session but remains around one percent below the record highs set in late November.
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FX Daily, December 15: Premium for Dollar-Funding is not Helping Greenback Very Much
The cross-currency basis swap continues to lurch in the dollar's direction, especially against the euro, and yet the dollar is not drawing much support from it. The increasing cost reflects pressure for the year-end and does not appear to reflect systemic issues. Dollar auction by the ECB and BOJ do not show any strain. The dollar has a downside bias today against most of the major currencies. And is what is true of the day is true for the week....
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FX Daily, December 07: Equities and Oil Stabilize
Global equities are stabilizing today after the recent downside pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slump with a 0.4% gain, led by a rebound in Tokyo and India. European markets are firm, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up around 0.25% near midday in London. All sectors are higher but telecom and real estate are performing best, while energy and health care are laggards.
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FX Daily, December 06: Equity Slump Continues, Lifts Bonds, Bolsters Yen
The swoon in equities, perhaps sparked by a rotation spurred by potential US tax changes, is continuing today. It is providing a risk-off mood, which is expressed in the foreign exchange market as a stronger yen. The most compelling answer of yen strength is not that investors are buying yen as a haven.
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FX Daily, December 04: US Dollar Marked Higher After Senate Passes Tax Reform
The US dollar opened higher in Asia and retained those gains through the European morning. The greenback has recouped most of the pre-weekend losses recorded in the wake of the indictment of a fourth former Trump Administration official by the special investigation into Russia's involvement in last year's election. However, two weekend developments seemed to blunt the impact of the guilty plea and admission of cooperation.
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FX Weekly Preview: Politics may Continue to Overshadow Economics
The new monthly cycle of high frequency economic data has begun. The manufacturing PMI shows the synchronized global recovery is continuing. The service sector and composite PMI will be reported in the week ahead. They are unlikely altering the general expectation for robust growth in Q4.
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FX Daily, November 30: US Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Brexit Hopes Underpin Sterling
The US dollar is broadly firmer. The rise in US yields yesterday has seen the greenback extend its recovery against the yen. It briefly pushed through JPY112.40, after dipping below JPY111.00 at the start of the week, for the first time since mid-September. Since the end of last week, been capped at the 200-day moving average against the yen, found near JPY111.70, but yesterday it pushed past. There are nearly $1 bln of options struck between...
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FX Daily, November 28: Greenback Ticks Up in Cautious Activity
The US dollar is consolidating its recent losses with a small upside bias. What promises to be an eventful week has begun with the Bank of England stress test and the publication of the Fed's Powell prepared remarks for his confirmation hearing to succeed Yellen as Chair. Unlike last year, this year's BOE stress test saw all seven banks pass.
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FX Daily, November 21: Dollar Marks Time
The US dollar has largely been confined to yesterday's trading ranges against the major currencies amid light news. The North American session does not hold much hope for fresh impetus. The US reports October existing home sales, which are not typically market moving in the best of times. Yellen does not speak until after the markets close, and even then is unlikely to sway expectations, which have priced in a rate hike next month.
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