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Great Graphic: US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany
This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg. It shows two time series. The yellow line shows the premium the US pays over Germany for two-year money. The white line shows the premium the US pays over Japan for two-year money. The premiums have risen sharply since mid-October and today are at new multi-year highs. … Continue...
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Great Graphic: Canadian Dollar and the Two-Year Rate Differential
The Canadian dollar is more than a petro currency. It is also subject to the same forces of divergence that have lifted the US dollar more broadly. Since the beginning of the year, the US two-year yield has risen 26 bp while Canada's two-year yield has fallen almost 39 bp. This Great Graphic, created on …
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Pure Gold and Soggy Dollars
We’re going to be introducing some new formats. One of them is quick article links, with the good ones labelled Pure Gold and the bad ones labelled Soggy Dollars.
Pure Gold
When a Fed-induced boom turns to bust: “In the lynch-mob....
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How Could the Fed Protect Us from Economic Waves?
Mainstream economists tell us that the Federal Reserve protects us from economic waves, indeed from the business cycle itself. In their view, people naturally tend to go overboard and cause wild swings in both directions. Thus, we need an economic central planner to alternatively stimulate us and then take away the punch bowl.
The very idea of centrally planning money and credit boggles the mind.
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What Happens When Credit Is Mispriced?
Keith Weiner explains what happens when credit is mispriced. The rich are privileged because they can profit on the volatility and the bubbles the cheap credit createes.
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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America’s Nine Classes: The New Class Hierarchy
Eight of the nine classes are hidebound by conventions, neofeudal and neocolonial arrangements and a variety of false choices. There are many ways to slice and dice America's power/wealth hierarchy. The conventional class structure is divided along the lines of income, i.e. the wealthy, upper middle class, middle class, lower middle class and the poor.
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Russia, Europe, and the new international order
By Josef Janning – 09 Apr 14 Via the European Council of Foreign Relations. The premise of an international order defined by the West and shared by the rest has been shown to be faulty. Ever since the Soviet Union fell apart and nationalism re-emerged as a divisive as well as cohesive factor in Eastern … Continue reading...
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Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 29
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday. Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand. This also appears to be the message of the …
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The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging
A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...
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It’s not simply QE3
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...
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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus. They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions. They can contemplate the future, but there …
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Net Speculative Positions and Technical Analysis,week from August 6
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso. The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …
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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): November 2010
EUR/CHF Continues Lower Presently down at 1.3055 from early 1.3090, having been as low as 1.3037 so far. Earlier I was reading comments made by UBS economist Huenerwadel, who said “At least from a fundamental point of view and aware of the increased long CHF positioning, very little speaks in favour of a materially higher EUR/CHF … Continue reading...
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Swiss Franc Surges to Record High: Where was the SNB? (March 2010)
Mar. 26th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss Franc (March 2010) One of the clear victors of the Greek sovereign debt crisis has been the Swiss Franc, which has risen 5% against the Euro over the last quarter en route to a record high. 5% may not sound like much until you … Continue...
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