Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Construction expenditure remains at the same level in 2021 for the second time in a row

17.07.2022 - Construction expenditure again remained stable in 2021 compared with the previous year. Investments in civil engineering rose by 1.0% and those in building construction fell by 0.4%. As a result, total investment in construction showed a decline of 0.1%. These are the provisional findings from the Construction Statistics from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2022: +6.9 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2022 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 109.8 points (December 2020 = 100). Petroleum products in particular were more expensive. Compared with June 2021, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 6.9%.

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Medical practices played an active part in the vaccination campaign in 2021

In 2021, for the second consecutive year, the activity of medical practices was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an improved situation compared with 2020, two out of five medical practices experienced reduced activity and one in five had to resort to short-time work. Three out of five primary care practices participated in the vaccination campaign that began at the end of 2020.

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Almost every sixth person lived in a household with arrears in 2020

Vehicle leases and arrears are the most common types of debt in Switzerland. In 2020, 15.5% of the population lived in a household with at least one vehicle lease and 14.9% in a household with at least one arrear in the past 12 months. 6.9% lived in a household with at least three different types of debt.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2022: +3.4 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in June 2022 compared with the previous month, reaching 104.5 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +3.4% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2022: 0.0 percent Nominal and -1.6 percent Real

Nominal retail trade turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays remained stable in May 2022 compared with the same month of the previous year with a rate of change of 0.0%. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.6% compared with the previous month.

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International tourism still strongly impacted by the COVID-19 crisis in 2021

The COVID-19 crisis continued to have a major impact on the tourism sector in 2021. After the shock of 2020, there was still no return to the pre-pandemic situation. The number of people travelling remained well below 2019 levels. Revenue (foreign visitors to Switzerland) in the tourism balance increased to CHF 10.1 billion, standing at 43.9% below its 2019 level.

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Construction prices rose by 4.9% in April 2022

The construction output price index recorded a rise of 4.9% between October 2021 and April 2022, reaching 109.2 points (October 2020 = 100). This result reflects an increase in building and civil engineering prices. Year on year, construction prices increased by 7.7%.

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2022: surge in imports towards a level record

In May 2022, Swiss foreign trade strengthened in both directions of traffic: seasonally adjusted exports increased by 1.2% while imports jumped by 10.3%. The latter thus confirmed their upward trend despite strong fluctuations. Due to the different pace of growth at the outflow and the inflow, the trade balance surplus stood at CHF 2.0 billion.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2022: +6.9 percent YoY, +0.9 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in May 2022 by 0.9% compared with the previous month, reaching 109.4 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as chemical products saw higher prices. Compared with May 2021, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 6.9%.

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Increase in the number of hours worked in Switzerland in 2021

The total number of hours worked in Switzerland reached 7.798 billion in 2021, representing an increase of 2.5% compared with the previous year. The pre-pandemic level has not yet been regained, however. According to the latest results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), the volume of work among 20-64 year olds in Switzerland increased slightly more than in the EU.

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54.0 percent increase in overnight stays in the Swiss hotel sector during the 2021/2022 winter season

The Swiss hotel sector registered 14.6 million overnight stays during the winter tourist season (November 2021 to April 2022). Compared with the same period last year, overnight stays increased by 54.0% (+5.1 million overnight stays). With a total of 5.6 million overnight stays, foreign demand increased by 196.7% (+ 3.7 million). Domestic visitors registered an 18.9% increase (+1.4 million) with 9.0 million units.

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Switzerland Unemployment in 1st quarter 2022: number of employed persons rises by 1.7 percent, unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 4.6%

In the first quarter of 2022, the number of employed persons in Switzerland increased by 1.7% compared with the same quarter of 2021 and the number of actual hours worked per week, per employed person, rose by 2.8%. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) fell from 5.8% to 4.6% in Switzerland and from 7.8% to 6.5% in the EU.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in May 2022: +2.9 percent YoY, +0.7 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% in May 2022 compared with the previous month, reaching 104.0 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +2.9% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, April 2022: -5.1 percent Nominal and -6.0 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 5.1% in nominal terms in April 2022 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.2% compared with the previous month.

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Almost half of the population took part in continuing education in 2021

In 2021, 45% of the population took part in continuing education. This share is relatively high, but compared with the last survey in 2016, it corresponds to a decrease of around 17 percentage points. This is largely explained by the COVID-19 pandemic. As in 2016, people attended one or more continuing education courses primarily for professional reasons.

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Switzerland grew more cereals in 2021

In 2021, the area under cereals (146 400 ha) increased by 3% compared with 2020, while that under potatoes (-2%) and sugar beet (-8%) decreased. The number of farms (48 864) fell further, while organic farming continued to grow.

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Residential property prices fell by 0.4% in 1st quarter 2022

The Swiss residential property price index (IMPI) fell in the 1st quarter 2022 compared with the previous quarter by 0.4% and reached 110.3 points (4th quarter 2019 = 100). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, inflation was 7.0%. These are some of the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2022: +6.7 percent YoY, +1.3 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in April 2022 by 1.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 108.4 points (December 2020 = 100). Higher prices were seen in particular for petroleum products as well as for basic metals and semi-finished metal products.

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Weekly View – Unsettled

Last week’s 50 bps Fed rate hike was not a surprise. Indeed, Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that a 75 bps hike had not been actively considered was enough to spark a stock rally. But it proved short-lived, with markets quickly returning to their fears about inflation.

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