Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

More than 30 300 digital offences in 2021

28.03.2022 - In 2021, the police recorded 30 351 offences having a digital component, i.e. an increase of more than 24% compared with the previous year, according to results from the Federal Statistical Office's (FSO) Police crime statistics (PCS).

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Swiss Trade Balance February 2022: chemicals-pharma propels exports to a record level

In February 2022, seasonally adjusted exports jumped 15.4% – after their setback in the previous two months – while imports fell 2.9%. The output boom was driven by the strength of chemicals and pharmaceuticals. For the first time, the trade balance surplus passed the 5 billion franc mark.

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A record number of new businesses in 2019

14.03.2022 - In Switzerland, 42 606 businesses were started from scratch in 2019. This figure, the highest ever recorded, represents growth of 8.0% compared with the previous year. In the same year, the number of high growth enterprises also reached a record, with 4803 units (+8.1% compared with 2018).

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Customs in 2021: more product piracy and non-compliant animal imports

The figures for the year 2021 from the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (OFDF) are again marked by the COVID pandemic. Due to the boom in e-commerce, the number of shipments seized for product piracy has once again increased significantly. Cases in the field of animal protection have also increased sharply. In addition, the number of records of migrants who entered Switzerland irregularly was higher than in 2020. Receipts increased...

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Swiss inflation jumps sharply in February

The high inflation across the world is rippling as far as Switzerland. During the month of February 2022, Swiss prices rose 0.7%. Compared to the same month in 2021, prices were 2.2% higher, making this the highest price increase in two decades.

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Swiss Inflation Rises to 2.2 percent

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% in February 2022 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.4 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +2.2% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Consumer prices increased by 0.2% in January

11.02.2022 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in January 2022 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +1.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The 0.2% increase compared with the previous month is due to several factors including rising prices for gas. Hotel accommodation also recorded a price...

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Swiss Trade Balance Year 2021: exports climb to one record level

After a year 2020 strongly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Swiss foreign trade proved to be very dynamic in 2021. Exports thus jumped by 15.2% – reaching a record level – while imports swelled by 10 .1%. The different pace of growth at entry and exit explained the jump in the trade surplus to the imposing level of 58.7 billion francs.

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Swiss Retail Sales, November 2021: +5.4 percent Nominal and +5.8 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.4% in nominal terms in November 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2021: +5.8 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2021 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 105.2 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, petroleum products as well as petroleum and natural gas saw higher prices. Compared with November 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 5.8%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2021: +0.6 percent Nominal and +1.2 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in October 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.5% compared with the previous month.

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Settlements continue to grow, but at a slower pace

Switzerland's settlement and urban areas have expanded by a further 181 km2 in the last ten years, which is twice the area of Lake Zurich. Compared with previous decades, however, settlement growth has slowed down slightly. Forests have also expanded, but only in the mountains.

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Around 12percent of the household budget went on taxes in 2019

In 2019, the average household disposable income in Switzerland was CHF 6609 per month. A large part of this amount was used for the consumption of goods and services, namely CHF 4985. Households spent 31.0% of their budget on compulsory expenditure such as taxes, social expenditure and health insurance premiums, averaging CHF 2973.

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2021: chemistry-pharma tarnishes the foreign trade table

In October 2021, Swiss foreign trade lost its vigor. Exports declined 1.4% and imports 2.3% from the previous month. The chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector weighed on the results in both directions of traffic. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 4.4 billion francs, similar to that of previous months.

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Weekly View – Big Splits

US prices continue to rise, with the US consumer price index (CPI) for October coming in at its highest in three decades. President Biden made a boldly worded response as inflation becomes a growing focus among politicians with their eyes fixed on next year’s midterm elections. Oil prices fell on investors’ expectations that the US could free up strategic reserves to combat energy inflation.

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Wide variation in pandemic’s impact on post-compulsory education and training pathways

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, academic Baccalaureate holders were much faster to transition to a higher education institution in 2020. This led to a record number of new students in the universities and institutes of technology. Transitions after a federal vocational or specialised Baccalaureate saw hardly any change.

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Served sanctions fell by almost 21percent in 2020

15.11.2021 - In 2020, 10 945 sentences and measures were executed in Switzerland (2019: 13 810). More than two thirds (67%) were for imprisonment in a penal institution. Community service accounted for less than a third (30%) of executions of sentences while electronic monitoring made up 3%. 86% concerned males and 42% Swiss citizens.

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Weekly View – Central Bank Halloween

Last week, the US GDP growth figure for Q3 came in lower than expected, while prices moved higher than anticipated and the US Employment Cost Index update rose at its fastest pace in 31 years. The headline increase was driven by the biggest surge in wages since 1982, up 1.5% in the third quarter.

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Weekly View – Widening bottlenecks

After September’s negative performance, last week proved one of the strongest in a while for equity markets. This rebound followed news that the Biden administration will start to tackle the supply-chain and logistics issues that have been preventing deliveries.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2021: +4.5 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2021 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 104.1 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, basic metals and semi-finished metal products as well as petroleum and natural gas saw higher prices. Compared with September 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 4.5%.

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