Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2019: +1.5 percent Nominal and +1.4 percent Real

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, July 2019
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.5% in nominal terms in July 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, Unchanged MoM

2019-09-03

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2019-09-03

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, August 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2019: number of persons in employment rises by 1.1 percent, unemployment rate based on the ILO definition falls to 4.2 percent

2019-08-21

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2019-08-21

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2014-Q2 2019
The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.1% between the 2nd quarter 2018 and the 2nd quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. The EU unemployment rate based on the ILO definition decreased from 6.8% to 6.3%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS).

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Brazilian real stands out in EM currency scorecard

2019-08-21

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2019-08-21

EM FX Scorecard, August 21
Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others.In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen.

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Swiss Trade Balance July 2019: foreign trade decelerates in July 2019

2019-08-20

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2019-08-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, July 2019
After shining the previous month, foreign trade turned red in July 2019. Despite a decline of 3.9% to 19.6 billion francs, exports had their second largest monthly result ever reached. Down 1.7%, imports were close to CHF 17 billion. The chemistry-pharma has greatly impacted both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

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Emerging market sovereign debt update: yields are falling

2019-08-19

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2019-08-19

Inflation and Policy Rates Average in Some EM, 2012-2019
Yields have fallen significantly in the EM sovereign bond space in local currency; USD movements will be key to watch for going forward.Yields have fallen impressively in the emerging market (EM) sovereign bond space in local currency, reaching 5.3% on 16 August, near their all-time low of 5.2% (in May 2013). This downward movement has been partly driven by the recent policy rate cuts of some EM central banks.

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Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

Italy: Key Upcoming Dates, 2019
Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August.

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New monetary policies for new challenges

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Towards a New Monetary Policy Style, 1981-2029
As central banks try (yet again) to bolster faltering growth and inflation, it is important to grasp how the ‘style’ and aims of monetary policy-making have changed over time and how they need to evolve in the future.The world is being disrupted by structural trends such as populism, demographic and climate change and technological innovation.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2019: -1.7 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, July 2019
15.08.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap as well as petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.7%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2019: 0.7 percent Nominal and 0.7 percent Real

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, June 2019
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.7% in nominal terms in June 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.7% in June 2019 compared with the previous year.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

2019-08-02

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2019-08-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, July 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.5% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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DATA ADDS TO THE CASE FOR ECB ACTION IN SEPTEMBER

2019-08-01

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2019-08-01

Euro Area Real GDP Growth, 2013-2019
Slowing economic momentum in the euro area means that we are lowering our GDP forecasts for this year. The euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1.While 0.2% is still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year have increased. Recent data have shown that the industrial slump has started to leave some marks on the domestic economy.

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World’s Central Banks End Pact That Limited Selling Of Gold

2019-07-29

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2019-07-29

Central Bank Demand, 1971 - 2018
In a surprising announcement on Friday morning, the European Central Bank said the 21 signatories of the 4th Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) "no longer see the need for formal agreement" as the market has developed and matured, and as a result the signatories "decided not to renew the Agreement upon its expiry in September 2019."

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BREXIT UNCERTAINTY TO WEIGH ON YIELDS

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

UK 10-YEAR Gilt Yield Breakdown and Forecast, 2014 - 2019
UK sovereign bond (gilts) yields have fallen this year, with the 10-year yield dropping by 59 basis points (bps) to 0.69%1, in concert with other core sovereign bond yields. The Brexit saga, along with the global slowdown forcing many central banks to turn dovish, are the main factors behind this steep fall.

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Germany Struggles On

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, Jan 2006 - 2019
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike.

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DM credit caught between opposing forces

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EURO AND US IG CREDIT SPREADS
Despite the impressive year-to-date performance of corporate credit, we remain prudent about prospects in the remainder of 2019.Corporate bonds have posted stellar total returns year to date, thanks to the positive combination of lower sovereign yields and tighter credit spreads.

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Semaña grande for Sánchez

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Spain Generic Government 10Y Yield, 2015-2019
The interim Spanish prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, will aim to form a government this week. Outside the political noise, the Spanish economy continues to do well.April’s elections in Spain resulted in a fragmented parliament, making the formation of a government complicated.

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Euro area manufacturing is not out of the woods

2019-07-19

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2019-07-19

Euro Area Industrial Production, MoM 2019
Industrial production rebounded in May. But a closer look shows that the improvement was narrowly spread, and euro area manufacturing faces numerous challenges ahead.After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2019: the positive trend continues to export

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2019
In the second quarter of 2019, exports increased by 1.4% and imports by 0.2%. The two traffic departments have thus set a record quarterly result. The trade surplus, on the other hand, stood at 6.8 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2019: -1.4 percent YoY, -0,5 percent MoM

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in June 2019 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with June 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.4%.

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