Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

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2012-12-01

gold price usd/chf 1972 2012
  Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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SNB Valuation Losses in October: Around 6 Billion Francs

2012-11-08

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2012-11-08

snb valuation losses in october 2012
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) had valuation losses of around 6 billion francs in October due to the weaker EUR/CHF exchange rate and a weaker gold price.

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Die Wiederwahl Obamas bedeutet nichts Gutes für die Schweiz

2012-11-07

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2012-11-07

Obama
  Barack Obama war und ist der präferierte Kandidat vieler Schweizer. Obama scheint der Mann von Welt zu sein, während vom konservativen Mitt Romney eher feindselige Politik gegen Russland, China und Iran zu erwarten ist. Daher sind die Neutralität- und Frieden-liebenden Schweizer eher auf Obamas Seite. Aber auch wirtschaftspolitisch scheinen viele Eidgenossen Obama zu mögen. …

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SNB Results Q3 2012: SNB Radically Reduces Euro Share from 60% to 48%

2012-11-02

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2012-11-02

snb q3 breakdown in currencies usd eur gbp
SNB Q3 Profits: 10 billion francs   The Swiss National Bank (SNB) radically reduced its euro share, in the third quarter from 60% to 48%, and bought US dollars and sterling instead. In the second quarter, however, it increased the euro share from 51% to 60% and concentrated on buying euros. Given that the EUR/USD was … Continue reading...

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The Swiss National Bank straddle

2012-10-31

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2012-10-31

It’s Swiss National Bank reserve figures Wednesday! That glorious day when we get to see how exactly the ingredients of the SNB’s cake have changed. Or to put it more literally, how have they been dealing with the masses of euro assets they are colle...

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How the SNB Destroyed Ashraf Laidi’s EUR/USD 1.35 Party

2012-10-31

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2012-10-31

Ashraf Laidi
Trend Follower Ashraf Laidi Loses Against the Contrarian Investor SNB The currency strategist Ashraf Laidi recently evoked a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.35 thanks to the risk appetite after the easing operations of the Fed and the ECB. We show that he and the masses of his Forex rooters actually traded against a big central …

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Trade Like a Central Bank: Buy EUR/USD at 1.24 and sell at 1.30! .. SNB

2012-10-31

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2012-10-31

q1-q3 snb currency breakdown
Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q3 2012  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced the share of euros in the third quarter substantially from 60% in Q2 to 48% in Q3 and increased dollar and pound positions. The SNB bought 80 billion euros or more when the common currency was trading around 1.24$, especially at the end of …

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Did the SNB Front-Run ECB Decisions Far Ahead of Hedge Funds?

2012-10-30

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2012-10-30

Spanish 5 yrs. bond yields
We think that the Swiss National Bank invested far more in Italian and Spanish bonds  than analysts like Standard and Poor’s expected and was able to front-run ECB decisions. This new style of hedge funds, formerly called “central banks”, can refinance at zero percent and is able to show a lot better performance than the …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 26

2012-10-29

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2012-10-29

swiss m1 vs. gdp and credit 2008-2012
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Despite the seasonal effects between October and March, the SNB is not able to sell currency reserves consistently. Traditionally the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was possibly already anticipated …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 19

2012-10-22

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2012-10-22

Swiss Trade Balance by regions English
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 12

2012-10-15

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2012-10-15

Stock market performance per quarter
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks …

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IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

2012-10-12

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2012-10-12

This link  on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 5

2012-10-08

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2012-10-08

Stock market performance per quarter
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months …

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Is Standard and Poor’s a Rating Agency or a Rumor Agency ?

2012-10-01

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2012-10-01

Standard & Poors1
  Standard and Poor’s critique of the Swiss National Bank, Part 2, extracts from our full report       As many readers of our blog know, we are not the best of friends with the current Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy: we recently published a paper claiming that the SNB will go bankrupt and …

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SNB Monetary Data Week of September 28

2012-10-01

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2012-10-01

snb -expansion
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger over the autumn months till …

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Do Swiss companies prefer to hold cash at the SNB instead of local banks ?

2012-09-24

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2012-09-24

snb expansion
The most recent SNB monetary data show that more and more companies are increasing their deposits at the central bank at a quicker speed than local banks. Might this be missing trust in the Swiss banking system ?

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Swiss Net International Investment Position Increases by 64 Billion Francs

2012-09-21

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2012-09-21

Swiss Net International Investment Position Q2/2012
Swiss Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2, after Q1 +0.5%   According to the latest SNB Monthly Bulletin, the Swiss net international investment position (NIIP) has improved by 64.5 billion francs. The Gross National Income (GNI) rises by 1.8% in Q2.     The SNB currency reserves rose by 128 Bln. Francs in the …

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