Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Volckers Attack on Stagflation

In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.

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Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively

We shows the massive appreciation of Swiss franc and German mark in the 1970s, the reasons were: stagflation and the wage-price spiral.

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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc

We establish a long-term view and history of the Swiss franc. We compare the franc with gold.

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Research on SNB & CHF

Private markets, public investors: The march of the sovereigns

2014-06-17

by The Economist

2014-06-17

SOVEREIGN wealth funds, typically set up by oil-exporting nations, have been around for decades, in the case of Kuwait since 1953. But their influence has increased in recent years, as China has adopted a similar strategy for investing some of its vast foreign-exchange reserves while existing funds have been fuelled by gains from high oil prices.

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Buttonwood: Land of the falling yield

2014-06-05

by The Economist

2014-06-05

Click here to continue

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SNB Follows ECB? Pictet’s Negative SNB Interest Call

2014-06-03

by George Dorgan

2014-06-03

Pictet calls for negative interest rates in Switzerland in order to maintain rate differentials between the euro zone and Switzerland. Maintaining rate differentials would be useful for FX speculators and for money market funds that still invest in the euro zone.

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Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism: Extended Version

2014-05-08

by George Dorgan

2014-05-08

We have published the extended version of “The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism” on the investor site Seeking Alpha. The version is longer than the one published previously.

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SNB First Quarter Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

2014-05-02

by George Dorgan

2014-05-02

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its “ever appreciating” currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed. In the first quarter of 2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was unable to accomplish this task.

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George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft

snb profits and profits thanks to gold, gold price debt ceiling

Is the SNB Intervening Again?

2014-03-30

by George Dorgan

2014-03-30

snb intervention, chairman philipp hildebrand

Update March 21, 2014: Total SNB sight deposits increased to 367.8 bln. CHF, but flows reverted a bit. Foreign banks and “non-banks” reduced their CHF exposure at the SNB to 50.8 bln, possibly converting a part of the difference into USD. Dollars are more useful when sanctions will hurt both Russian and German firms. On … Continue...

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The IMF Assessment for Switzerland and our Critique

2014-03-27

by George Dorgan

2014-03-27

In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund several sentences caught our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique. The most important one was that for the IMF is only "moderately overvalued", this would have no negative effect for exporters.

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The IMF Assessment for Switzerland 2014 and our critique

In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund, several sentences sparked in our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique.

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SECO expects 2.2% Swiss growth, further CHF strength ahead, understand why

2014-03-19

by George Dorgan

2014-03-19

swiss gdp forecast march 2014 seco, consuotion, business cycles expert group

The Swiss government see Swiss GDP growth at 2.2% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015. Our estimate sees a divergence in the GDP components; we expects a lower trade surplus and higher spending. in both cases CHF should rise.

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2013 SNB’s Valuation Gains 14 billion CHF on Stocks, but Losses of 35 bln. on Gold, FX and Bonds

2014-03-07

by George Dorgan

2014-03-07

results estimate snb 2013 fx gov. bonds corp. bonds gold stocks interest incime stab. fund total

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reporting a loss of CHF 9.1 billion for the year 2013 (2012: profit of CHF 6.0 billion). Valuation losses on gold holdings amounting to some CHF 15.2 billion contrast with a profit of CHF 3.1 billion on foreign currency positions and a net result of CHF 3.4 billion from …

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SNB Q1/2014 Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its "ever appreciating" currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed.

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15 Billion SNB Losses on Gold in 2013, But 40 Billion SNB Profit on Gold between 2000 and 2012

For anybody complaining about gold that caused the big loss of the Swiss National Bank. Since 2000, the total SNB profit was 32.1 bln. CHF, of which 24.6 billion came from gold.

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