Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Weekly Newspaper on Swiss National Bank, Edition October 28

2013-10-28

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2013-10-28

The SNB recently published the latest real effective exchange rate (REER). According to that the franc was only 7% overvalued against the base year 1999. Credit Suisse (CS) has taken some more factors than the REER under consideration: for them the fair value of the EUR/CHF is now 1.22, while the dollar was still undervalued. …

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SNB’s Jordan Responds to the Critique from the Peterson Institute: What They Forgot to Ask Him …

Jordan in the ECO interview
SNB's Jordan Responds to the Critique from the Peterson Institute: What They Forgot to Ask...

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No SNB Intervention: Massive Swiss M0 Increase due to Post Finance Transformation into a Bank

2013-09-01

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2013-09-01

Money Printing M0 FX Purchases
SNB did not intervene. Deposits of Swiss Post Finance had been reclassified from other sight liabilities to deposits of domestic banks.

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Danthine: SNB would end franc cap once it raises interest rates

2013-08-11

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2013-08-11

Jean Pierre Danthine Swiss National Bank SNB
It was obvious already at the latest SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, the SNB is becoming more and more hawkish. At the forefront is its ueber-hawk Jean-Pierre Danthine, the person responsible for the overheating Swiss housing market. He has now announced: SNB would end franc limit once it raises interest rates The Swiss National Bank will …

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Jordan 1999 paper: Why Switzerland should never peg to the Euro

Jordan in the ECO interview


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SNB Q2/2013 Composition of Reserves

2013-08-02

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2013-08-02

snb q1-q4 currency breakdown
We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. here the newest data Total Balance Sheet and Liabilities The total balance sheet size decreased from 511 bln. …

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Debt Reduction, the new Financial Cycle, an Important Driver of EUR/CHF

Swiss Debt and Deficit to GDP
In this analysis we describe why the long-lasting financial cycle of debt reduction is one key driver of the EUR/CHF exchange rate. We claim that EUR/CHF can rise more strongly only when the competitiveness of the European periphery increases. When this happens, then debt will be reduced and both public and private deficit spending will stop.

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A Nationalization of Swiss Foreign Assets? SNB Owns 56% of Swiss Net International Investment Position

Net International Invest Position Switzerland
The SNB currently owns 56% of the Swiss net international investment position (“NIIP”). In the year 2007 this number was only 12%. Is the central bank implicitly nationalizing the Swiss international companies?

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Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

2013-07-30

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2013-07-30

Swiss National Bank
UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. … Continue reading »

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SNB has Won the Risk Aversion Battle, When Will the Inflation Battle Start?

CPI GDP Unemployment Rate


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Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years

2013-07-17

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2013-07-17

The Swiss ZEW investor sentiment has risen to 4.8 by 2.6 points, news that do not influence markets. More interesting is the following:  Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years * Majority see no change in euro/franc for next 6 months (Reuters) – The Swiss National Bank will most … Continue reading »

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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency

SNB Inflation Forecasts of June 2012 and of September 2012
At the end of May, SNB president Jordan admitted that the EUR/CHF floor will not raised (here also cited by Bloomberg): “We cannot arbitrarily manipulate our currency. In an even worse crisis situation this would be disastrous and counterproductive. The floor must be legitimized. The current minimum exchange rate is realistic and has helped the Swiss economy.”

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SNB Monetary Assessment June 2013: Very risk-averse, nearly hawkish tone

2013-06-21

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2013-06-21

snb monetary assessment june 2013
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a, for her standards, very hawkish monetary assessment with the focus on the risks in the financial sector. This does not come as a surprise for us. Each time, after the United States has recovered from a crisis – just like now – inflation and risks increased in Switzerland. …

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SNB to Follow the Bank of Japan? Part1

2013-06-04

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2013-06-04

ISM Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing May 2013 YoY
Questions to George Dorgan Is there any chance that the SNB or other central banks could follow the BOJ and just depreciate the currency? George Dorgan: What did the BoJ do? Monetary easing and talk down the yen in a mercantilist style. A central bank is able to talk down a currency only if there … Continue reading »

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Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

Growth Differential CH Eurozone UBS


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How Modern Monetary Policy Changed CHF from Gold-Backed to a USD and Euro-Backed Currency

Gold-backed CHF vs. EUR USD backed
we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

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CHF as Funding Currency: Where is the Carry Trade, Bob Savage?

euromoney swiss franc forum


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Swiss Franc Put/Call Ratio, Futures Volumes, Open Interest etc.



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