Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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BOE Bailout Fuels Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-29

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(9/29/22) Markets have been working to hold onto support established back in June; yesterday's news of the Bank of England resuming bond purchases to bail out pension funds provided the octane needed for a rally upward, and fueled expectations the Fed would capitulate sooner than later in its rate hike campaign. Markets could open weaker this morning, following yesterday's sharp rally. Can markets confirm higher ground established on Wednesday?...

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The “Broken Window Theory” is Flawed

2022-09-29

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(9/29/22) Hurricane Ian pounded Florida overnight; recovery and repairs will contribute economic activity to the area, but the "Broken Window" theory has some flaws and mirrors the relationship between stimulus and inflation. The Bank of England caved to pressure, repeating what caused inflation in the first place; the realization that high valuations cannot be maintained; bond market in biggest bear mode in history; Bond's role in with...

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The Bank of England Blinks: Is The Fed Next? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-28

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(9/28/22) We have long held that market instability would be a key driver in a Fed policy shift from its current course of fighting inflation with higher rates. The Bank of England today is moving from quantitative tightening and starting to buy bonds because of "Market instability." A credit crisis causes much more long-term damage to an economy than does inflation, and any such crisis will dramatically reduce inflation, fast. And the...

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Five Places to Put Cash

2022-09-28

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(9/28/22) The Bank of England caves to the risk of inciting market instability and resumes its quantitative easing program of bond purchases. Oil Prices may be poised to move higher; Millennials are making more trades than any other demographic; the problem of anchoring; there are benefits to holding cash; the genesis of mutual funds; 29% of Americans are withdrawing from savings for everyday expenses; survey of what women want: more financial...

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Will the Dollar Boost the Markets? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-27

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(9/27/22) Markets are set to rally this morning, as a big short-squeeze may be underway; the dollar is showing signs of weakness.

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The Most-forecast Recession in History

2022-09-27

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(9/27/22) Are markets preparing for a big Short-squeeze? Just a month ago we were talking about rampant market bullishness, and now there's a high level of fear and angst in the markets. The dollar's strength has created more inflation overseas, at three standard deviations above the 50-DMA; that cannot last.

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Employees Want Paychecks for Life: Pros and Cons of Guaranteed Lifetime Income

2022-09-27

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2022-09-27

Annuities and similar products may help address retirement readiness in an aging workforce. People are living longer, which means they may need their retirement savings to last decades. As a result, nearly half (48%) of participants are concerned about outliving their retirement savings.

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Will We Re-challenge June’s Lows?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-26

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(9/26/22) Markets sold off on Friday, re-testing June's lows. The question now is, is the market set to go lower, or do we get a reflexive rally to sell-into? June's lows will be re-challenged once again this morning, and with markets at three standard deviations off the 50-DMA, a reflexive-rally back up to 3,900 would not be surprising, and a great area from which to lift exposure. Bearish sentiment is now at record levels, and a record number of...

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The Fed has Gone Too Far

2022-09-26

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(9/26/22) Markets on Friday held onto June bottoms and are expected to rally back to 3,900; there were a record number of put-options placed on Friday, as well, indicating investors are hedging against a market crash. Could Italian national elections installing a fiscal conservative by an overwhelming majority be a precursor to US Mid-terms? Current challenges in the auto market: Few used cars available, prices at a premium; long term result of...

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How Could Inflation Impact Corporate Retirement Plans?

2022-09-26

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2022-09-26

Increasing prices may put pressure on employers and delay workers from retiring. Inflation is the increase in the general price of goods and services, which can decrease the purchasing power of American workers. So how does this recent upward trend affect your workplace benefits, employees and retirement plan?

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Money Scripting & Raising Money Smart Kids (9/23/22)

2022-09-23

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(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell's statements following this week's FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon...

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Higher Rates are Here to Stay Until 2023 | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-22

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(9/22/22) The Fed jacked rates up 75-basis points, as expected, and held out the possibility of at least two more rate hikes this year. The thing that shocked markets was the implication by Jerome Powell that higher rates would be here to stay throughout 2023, barring a recession or credit-related event that might cause the Fed to reverse policy. Markets in response sold off, taking out lows established back in May, an important support level we've...

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Did the Fed Just Break the Economy?

2022-09-22

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(9/22/22) It's a Trifecta Thursday with the onset of Autumn and the Death of the Roberts' Duber; the Fed raises rates 75-basis points, as expected, but shocks markets by saying higher rates are here to stay through 2023...unless something occurs to cause a change in stance. The Fed's "good intentions" vs reality; markets are now on the same page. The impact of higher rates on Bonds: TINA, FOMO, & YOLO in the Bond market; the...

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Treasuries Respond to Fed’s Rate Hike Binge | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-21

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(9/21/22) The Fed is expected today to raise interest rates by 75-basis points, but the real headline will come from the statement that's issued after the meeting is over: Will Jerome Powell reiterate his hawkish claims from Jackson Hole, or will he backpedal? That news will drive markets into the afternoon. As the Fed continues its rate hike campaign, Treasuries are responding in kind, and at this point, Bonds are cheaper relative to stocks. (A...

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Could Interest Rates Remain High through 2024?

2022-09-21

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(9/1/) The Fed is expected to hike interest rates another 75-basis points today. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot, consisting of the FOMC voting members' positions on interest rates, suggests rates will be at 4.5% by 03, and remain there into 04. Bonds are extremely cheap relative to stocks. This is debunking the TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome. As rates rise, those with pensions must consider whether taking monthly distributions or a lump sum is in...

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Will Rates Reach 4%? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-20

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(9/20/22) The latest two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins today; markets rallied off the May support line in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell's remarks tomorrow. It's expected the Fed will hike rates 75-basis points as it continues to fight inflation by slowing the economy, a phenomenon with which the Fed is apparently comfortable. That means earnings will have to come down even more so than already forecast, putting more...

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Why Jerome Powell is Okay with “Below Trend” Growth

2022-09-20

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(9/20/22) It's turning into a sloppy September for markets, even though support held at May's lows on Monday. Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, with markets anticipating the group's next move upward on rates by 75bp. Why is Jerome Powell okay with "below trend" economic growth? The trap of investors' "anchoring;" the Fed's view of markets is the only one that counts. Some economic pain is okay...the Fed is going to act...

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What Happens When Buy-backs Go Away | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-09-19

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(9/19/22) Markets sold off Friday on a warning from Federal Express suggesting the economy is slowing down much more than folks are letting on. Markets did break through the rising trend line we've been watching, but did hold on to support going back to the June-July level. Futures this morning are trending lower with additional selling pressure following last week's rather vicious sell-off. There still remains some downside risk today, but markets...

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Is a 75bp Rate Increase Already Baked-in?

2022-09-19

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(9/19/22) A bit of distraction to start the morning with all eyes on the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II; the next meeting of the FOMC is on Wednesday, with expectations for a 75-basis point rate increase already "baked into the cake;" there is concern the Fed could go for a 1% rate hike. Goldman is predicting rates at 4 to 4.25% by the end of the year--hopefully the point at which the Fed will halt rate increases. The Stock Buy-back...

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Don’t Let a Tax Torpedo Sink Your Retirement Boat

2022-09-17

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(9/16/22) FedEx's dire predictions are echoing concern of others on the true health of the economy; delivery services are a bellwether of a coming recession. The Fed is in a box; Wal-Mart: If you want deals, we're giving you deals. James Taylor, "Inflation is Dead;" Identifying the Tax Torpedo; the bridge strategy of Tax Torpedo diffusion; when companies get hammered, and the opportunity that's created; America slips in the Global...

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