Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now? (9/21/23)

2023-09-11

(9/11/23) Football Season returns (yawn); CPI/PPI Preview, Oracle’s earnings; how will uptick in oil prices affect CPI calculations? (not much); Apple takes a 6% hit on China iPhone ban, but no real impact on NASDAQ. Remembering 9/11 22-years later. One of the big head-scratchers this year is why we haven’t had a recession. A look at the Citi Surprise Index; when economic data points diverge. How the economy works: What comes first, Production or Consumption; is there really job-creation or just re-hiring of those laid off in the pandemic? Hostess & Smucker’s to merge: Looking at the possibilities; will higher oil prices create surprise inflation (makes up on 7% of CPI)? The problem with lags in economic data; GDP will have to "catch-down" to GDI.

SEG-1: Economic Reports – What Makes Up

2023-08-23

(8/23/23) It’s NVDIA Report Day: The NVDIA Drinking Game: How many times will they mention, "AI?" Economic data & the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Manufacturing data is not improving; what happens on the Services side? Dick’s, Nike, Target, et al earnings and outlooks not good; WalMart & Kohl’s are okay. Markets rally and sell-off Tuesday. The Barbie Movie: To see or not to see? What’s the implication behind rise in Treasury yields: higher real rates & expectations for direction in rates; expectation for no recession and stronger economic growth for next several years (are they right?) Refilling the SPR: How will that affect inflation? (It won’t): How CPI is calculated. The cost of electric & water utilities: How we measure personal inflation. Are we spending too much on our kids’

2023-08-22

(8/22/23) All eyes are on NVDIA’s report and the fulfilment(?) of 50% sales increase promises. Sustainability of growth numbers will be key. Fed governors are holding Jackson Hole prelude meetings. VIX has been creeping upward; markets correction of 5%; higher close on Monday, but no buy signal yet triggered. Expect another pullback prior to setting up for October rally; commodities are a concern. What’s in store for 2024: A history of normal market oscillations. Volatility is the toll we pay for investing. The set-up for a market rally is in place, but there’s no guarantee it will occur. Where best to invest in 2024: How sectors roll in- and-out-of-favor. Winners & Losers this year: Where might they be next year? Logical rotation into interest rate-sensitive sectors: Laggards to

2023-06-27

(6/27/23) The Quarter’s end nears and markets face increased selling pressure as portfolio managers rebalance holdings. There is still room for a 5- to 10% correction this summer. MACD Sell signal is now in place, with $26-B worth of potential selling on the line. There is now a bigger risk from inflation data revisions; is there too much market exuberance? Whoa–Larry Fink has a change of heart about ESG? The scam that is ESG. For real change, boycott the companies (Blackrock) that invest in "woke" businesses; literally move your money away from Blackrock. Is this a Bull Market or a Bull Trap? A word about Fibonacci magic; the importance of staying focused on investment rules; markets are bullish now so act accordingly. YouTube Q&A segments on purchasing used vs new cars; how do you

2023-06-26

(6/26/23) Weekend recap: The coup that was over before it started; everyone is now a deep-sea exploration expert. Thanks, Internet.
End of Quarter dynamics are toying with markets: What will be seen in Q-2 results? Portfolio rebalancing by fund managers create sector rotation & selling pressure. Markets will re-test 20-DMA. Buy signals drive markets; when sell signals are triggered two things may happen: a.) market consolidation sideways, or b.) correction back to support. July & August produce weaker price performance. An application of Pascal’s argument on God’s existence to stock ownership risks over time. 90% of fund managers underperform the index. Markets are still betting on a "New Bull Market." Last October’s lows appear to have been validated. Markets are still dealing with AI

2023-06-23

(6/23/23) HOUR ONE: Stories from Texas families; Market commentary: The Fed’s Kabosh on Inflation: Muckflation; slow-grinding stagflation as liquidity is drained from the system. Why Roths are the J. G. Wentworth for the Gov’t.; Tax benefits of a Roth; dodging the tax torpedo. Scarlet & Flo: Bring back ‘Kiss my Grits;’ the most-popular US migration destination cities; Why did Darden purchase Ruth’s Chris’ as affluent shoppers flock to Dollar Tree? Emerging Retirement Trends: Tiny Home Villages, early retirement by 55; nobody wants their parents’ home; healthcare insurance will be a challenge; NO debt is key.

HOUR-TWO: (Live Q&A from Radio listeners & YouTube audience) Money Dates: Couples becoming more engaged in money decisions. The Zuckerberg-Musk cage-match: Are we living in the