The Flaws in Secure Act 2.0

2023-08-14

(8/14/23) August means hot weather in Texas, and the conclusion of earnings season, with a re-focusing on economic data. A burning question at the upcoming Jackson Hole rich guys’ confab: What will it take for the Fed to lower rates? Profit margins are lower, but holding; Markets test 50-DMA and bounce. The real Fed funds rate; why the Fed would cut rates: Recession or crisis (the Fed WILL cut rates, just needs a reason). The Saga of the Roberts’ Racoon; What happens next with a data-dependent Fed? Data is little more than guesses; statistical samples are taken as gospel. The trend of data is more important than The Number. A discussion of wealth inequality vs personal financial responsibility: How to build wealth 1.) start a business, grow it, and sell it; 2.) Savings. Rule #1.: Never

2023-08-09

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2023-08-03

(8/3/23) Earnings season is seeing unusual reward & punishment for results. Is dis-inflation and 2% growth coming? Earnings beats have lifted markets, bullish sentiment is rising sharply without the benefit of liquidity support. The Market correction begins: breakout of 20DMA is no big deal, but watch the 50DMA. Fixing Government spending and the Fitch Ratings downgrade: It’s a joke. Explaining US Debt to Income Ratio; A look at the veracity of ratings agencies (Caution: Don’t buy bonds on ratings alone). The difference between corporate and government debt. Where else are you going to go? Timing is everything: Will the Fitch downgrade trigger market correction and creation of buying opportunity for investors? Is the US becoming Japan? There’s a 30-year lead on the US; the impact on

2023-07-31

(7/31/23) Investors prepare for August with the "rarity" of market performance: entering the seasonably weaker months of summer with 90% of stocks trading above their moving average; there is a high likelihood they will come back down. Earnings Season continues with the bulk of performance reports negative: We’re getting more earnings "beats," but less of a beat than usual and on lowered estimates!) What are you really paying for? NVDIA valuation is problematic at 40-times price to sales; most over-valued stock in the S&P 500. The Lag-effect of what? Where’s the Recession? Beware Fed Funds in Excess of Nominal GDP Growth. Government spending hasn’t stopped. What happens after earnings season ends? The expectations for stronger earnings growth: What is the risk? The folly of a one-sided

2023-07-27

(7/27/23) An overview of the current earnings reporting reveals profit margins have declined to pre-pandemic levels. Markets’ flat response to Jerome Powell post-FOMC meeting presser The effects of shrinkflation are beginning to fade; no 2% inflation expected until late 2025. Will rate cuts return by then? Markets don’t have a friendly Fed; a huge concern for impact of the Lag Effect; still possible for yet another rate increase of .25 to .50% by September. Market expectations vs Consumer Sentiment: Could there still be a "soft" landing? Is 3% inflation good enough? Powell says drop in headline inflation will encourage consumers–counter-productive for flagging inflation. Core Inflation is a better gauge of economic reality. Still no Recession? Why Chipotle is the world’s most expensive

2023-07-20

(7/20/23) Earnings season continues with Regional Banks’ performance, "so far, so good," but related concerns persist. Markets have retraced over 78% of their decline from January 2022 all-time highs; are new, all-time highs about to he achieved? Are banks presently enjoying a perfect economic environment? Are companies pricing-in growth that cannot be delivered? Sector rotation impact; looking at the lag-effect; how to higher interest rates affect the US Treasury? Debt interest expense increases. (Teenager Blessings) Companies’ ability to pass along price increases to consumers is easier when inflation is high; how will margins be affected? The Lag Effect affects us all, but differently.

2:08 – Regional Banks Earnings Update: So far, so good
14:32 – Markets Can’t Stop/Won’t Stop