September Market Wrap-up (9/25/23)

2023-09-05

(9/5/23) Markets are entering the "weak" month of September, the home of when things fall apart; barring any catastrophe, the month should prove to be flat. August Jobs Report shows higher unemployment = slower spending = lower inflation, the Fed’s goal. Popcorn shrinkflation at Costco. Why Mega-cap stocks continue to lead the market: Growth of ETF’s, and money must be invested for safety & liquidity. Why the Deficit declined: reduced spending; deficit now doubling due to more spending, which has again deferred Recession. The widening gap between spending and revenues; inflation is always a monetary phenomenon (fiscal policy). Government money now being spent on non-productive debt. The Fed’s role in Government debt; circular logic in government math & accounting. The downside of

2023-08-28

(8/28/23) AOC to ban Donald Trump Mug shot glasses? Capitalism at its best. The NVDIA aftermath. More supplemental funding for vaccines: Follow the money. Defining capitalism. Markets having a sloppy month: is better performance ahead? Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: Blaming Ukraine war for inflation (!) A review of how we measure core inflation. What Powell left out of his speech; "Navigating under cloudy skies." Still plenty of risk despite market performance. No significant downturn ahead (the problem with lagging indicators. Things to watch out for: 3-5% correction was needed, to be followed by rally. Earnings expectations are coming down for 2024. China’s impact on US economy. Biden’s curbs on Chinese chip components. (That we’re talking about these possibilities means markets

2023-06-07

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2023-06-06

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2023-06-01

(6/1/23) Setting up for June; the key point of the Debt Ceiling Bill: Unlimited Government Spending until 2025 (after the elections). What the Treasury must do next: Issue more debt. Watch for reverse in liquidity, rates to rise, and a drag on markets. We’re moving into the "weaker" months of Summer, with a relaxation of the rally. "Taking profits" doesn’t mean selling everything. Market anticipation ahead of Debt Ceiling Bill and sloppy T-bill auctions as liquidity leaves the markets. FOME Meeting preview: Hike or Pause? The Fed’s conundrum: Sticky inflation & strong employment. Investors must be prepared to "call an audible." Tightening bank lending standards are defacto rate increases. The true impact of the lag effect is unknown. The Family Feud Murder conviction; market behavior:

2023-05-30

(5/30/23) Markets begin the holiday-shortened week on an upbeat note, thanks to an impending Debt Ceiling deal; markets are challenging the Jan ’22 Lows. Friday’s PCE Report revealed Inflation remaining sticky, which the Fed will have to address. The Debt Ceiling deal is not a "done-deal" yet; if passed as-is, spending will actually increase in 2024. Next Debt Ceiling discussion will be pushed out to 2025, beyond the next election. The risk of market price increases exists as debt ceiling talks continues; Congress uses fuzzy math. What the Fed may do about more inflation; prices are not getting cheaper; increased consumer sending expected to continue, foiling the Fed’s plans. Rate hikes aren’t working, and markets are beginning to price-in another rate increase at the June 16 Fed