Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will Commercial Real Estate be the Next to Fall?(3/27/23)

2023-03-27

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(3/27/23) In the aftermath of the bank fail and bailout fiasco, the Fed's QT is essentially being negated by bond buys; despite that, markets are setting a rising trend. Gold buyers read real interest rates; stock buyers read earnings estimates. While the Fed continues to focus on inflation, markets are pricing-in a 110-bp rate cut by Summer's end. 15-years after Bear-Stearns, the component missing for full financial crisis is a lack of faith in...

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Make No Mistake: Perspective Matters | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/24/23)

2023-03-24

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(3/24/23) "It's important to have perspective. It's also important to have good facts and good information. Look, I'm not always right, and I'm not claiming to be; I make mistakes just like everybody else, and when I make a mistake, I'll tell you: 'Hey, I made a mistake.' My wife never makes a mistake...but, I make mistakes, and she's happy to remind me of that for, like, 30-years ago. She reminds me of stuff I did wrong before I even knew...

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Why Credit Suisse Matters | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/23/23)

2023-03-23

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(3/23/23) "Credit Suisse, by the way, far different than Silicon Valley Bank. Credit Suisse is what they call a "SIFI." S-I-F-I. That's a Systemical Important Financial Institution. It's the Lehman Brothers. And the reason is because, a. Credit Suisse is a very, very large bank, but they have relationships with every other large bank on the planet. All the other major banks: Credit swaps, credit default swaps, currency swaps, you...

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Bonds Price-in Slower Economic Environment to Come | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/22/23)

2023-03-22

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(3/22/23) "We have one of The Most Inverted Yield Curves on record, and people are going, 'Yeah, I know it's inverted, but we're not going to have a recession this time.' We have never been this inverted without a recession, period, end of story. Now, could this time be different? Possib. But, I think it's interesting, Mike, that despite all these rate hikes, the 10-year Treasury, as an example, because that's all that's on CNBC dai, we look...

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Economics is Like an Auction | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/21/23)

2023-03-21

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(3/21/23) "So, it's an interesting conundum...flows of money [and] where they're heading to. And, look, there's a simple formula that drives economics, that drives markets, it drives just about everything in life, and that is always supp and demand. Why do we have inflation? Well, too much demand for too little supp: We shut down the economy, we gave people a bunch of money; we said, guess what, you can't work, you gotta stay home; and no one...

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Will Mobile Banking in the Future Limit Access to Your Money? | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/20/23)

2023-03-20

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/20/23) The SVB failure was an issue of falling collateral value and the velocity of money through mobile banking. Regional banks are also facing aftereffects; what is "too big to fail?" What are the realities of remaining risk in the system? Is a limitation on mobile banking coming? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment...

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Why Bank Math is Like Abbott & Costello

2023-03-17

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/17/23) Bank math is a lot like Abbott & Costello math; the main issue with banks is lack of mark-to-market; SVB problem was it's the tech-darling, whose product was sub-prime business loans based on "social credit." (See "The Panic of 1907"). How diversity and equity nearly crashed the economy (NY Post). Is the...

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Why Banks Are About to Tighten Credit | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/16/23) "There is not enough money in FDIC to cover bank bailouts. There's not even enough money to cover all of Silicon Valley Bank. If we go bank to a 2008 situation, where you've got bank after bank after bank failing, there is not enough moeny to cover those. In the Pension Benefit Guanraty Corporation, there is not enough money...

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SVB & ESG: Why ESG Investing is a Scam| Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/17/23) "There is more than sufficient evidence that the ESG mantra does very little for the environment, and does a lot more for the managers that are chosing these funds, because out of those 915 ESG Funds, a lot of those funds have nothing to do with ESG investing. They were large cap funds that weren't getting any inflows because...

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Why the Credit Suisse Bailout is Significant: SIFI

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/16/23) Credit Suisse secures a $50-B loan from the Swiss National Bank: Is this only the first bailout? Why markets have really gone nowhere; this is why context matters. It's important to keep a proper perspective as an investor: Ignore the TikTok experts and look at the data; a longer-term view is best. Why the Fed will not cut rates...

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Will Taxpayers Bear the Brunt of Federal Bank Bailouts?

2023-03-15

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(3/15/23) "There is not enough money in FDIC to cover bank bailouts. There's not even enough money to cover all of Silicon Valley Bank. If we go bank to a 2008 situation, where you've got bank after bank after bank failing, there is not enough moeny to cover those. In the Pension Benefit Guanraty Corporation, there is not enough money in that to cover all the pensions. There's just not enough money. So ultimatey, at the end of the day, this is...

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There Is Not Enough Money in the FDIC to Cover Everyone.

2023-03-15

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/15/23) Despite Tuesday's CPI print of 6%, core inflation remains very high and very sticky. The realities of CPI and the fallout from SVB Failure are the context for The Great Debate: Will the Fed Hike or Pause? Was SVB an Event or a prelude to more trouble? Expectation for Tuesday's rally to be erased today; will bears take charge again?...

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Why SVB Failure is Not Likely a One-off Event (3/23/23)

2023-03-14

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(3/23/23) Markets have priced-in a massive Fed pivot; why SVB is likely not a one-off event, as previous rate hikes being to impact economy; banks will make loan requirements more stringent, effectively tightening credit; banks will be forced to clean up their balance sheets. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch...

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Don’t Panic; Banks are Recovering | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-14

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(3/14/23) "Reduce some risk; reduce your financial exposure for right now, and then once we get through this problem in the markets over the next few days, we can look to where we can rebalance risk, and to do we do that. But right now, it looks like money is starting to flow, not only into Bonds, which had one of the biggest moves since 1987 yesterday, but also into Technology and growth stocks, which have less exposure to interest rate...

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Day-Two of Bank Bailout Week

2023-03-14

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/14/23) It's Day-Two of Bank Bailout Week, with still-inflationary CPI numbers adding to the mix of woes and worries for the Federal Reserve. The failure of Signature Bank and SVB underscore what happens when regulations are defanged, and Rule 157 is repealed, allowing fuzzy math to prevail. Are banks really too big to fail? The irony of...

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Silicon Valley Bank Failure: What Happens Next | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-13

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(3/13/23) I think what you're going to see (as a result of the SVB failure) isd a shift out of Financials into Technolgy, and the reason for that will be simply looking for companies that aren't in the Financial Sector that have the ability to grow earnings. Value has been under pressure, lately; may see some rotation to Value. One of the reasons we've been adamant about long-duration bonds, saying that, as the Fed hikes rates, they're going to...

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Did the Fed Finally Break Something?

2023-03-13

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/13/23) The Fed raised rates until something broke: SVB/Silicon Valley Bank is taken into receivership over the weekend, a victim of poor management and weakened banking regulations allowing fractional reserve banking; why this is not technical a bank bailout; a brief history of Dodd-Frank regulation. SVB failure is a collusion of bad...

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How to Avoid Financial Exploitation (3/24/23)

2023-03-10

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(3/24/23)The problem of out-living your money. The emerging trend of single retirees; the wage gap for never-married women; how to avoid financial exploitation of your nest egg. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch the full show from which this segment was excerpted on our YouTube channel:...

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Should You Wait Until 70 to Retire?

2023-03-10

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/10/23) The US Economy added 311k more job in February, and the Unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, despite a resilient economy despite inflation and high interest rates. Are we falling into the abyss? What's the difference between a "hard" and "soft" landing? Legislation being proposed would raise the minimum retirement...

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Has the Fed Run Out of Room?

2023-03-09

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/9/23) Market response to two days of Jerome Powell's testimony promising more rate hikes: Ral on. Bulls held the line at the 200DMA; Fear sells, but markets aren't signaling that, retaining a bullish bias. How we communicate now: Most text-message; The Fed is driving blind, reing on backwards-looking data. At what point will higher rates...

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