Why Banks Are About to Tighten Credit | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-02-06

(2/6/23) The current market is not unlike that ill-fated Chinese balloon shot out of US skies over the weekend: Markets are over-inflated with insufficient technical "lift" (January Jobs report) to sustain current prices. The problem with last month’s "promising" numbers is that they’re subject to massive revisions. Low employment means the Fed is nowhere near a pause, much less a pivot, and markets are now predicting two additional Fed rate hikes this year. The Saga of The Roberts’ Family Weekend Drama; why Jim Rickards’ bearishness and worst-case scenario drama will never happen: Economics adjust and markets price-in the outcome. Biding in real estate: There is no housing crash coming; cash is cushioning end-of-the-world scenarios. Zero-DTE & Investors focusing on when the Fed may

2023-02-02

(2/2/23) Fed Chair Jerome Powell is more concerned about "disinflation" than financial conditions, as evidenced by the Fed’s quarter-point rate increase, and shift in stance on inflation; subsequent market upside may be limited to 100-points. Disinflation vs Deflation. Ground Hog Day again, and again, and again…Fed Meeting recap: The Fed got it wrong about "transitory," and doesn’t want to be wrong again. Three choices for the Fed: Hike, Hold, or Drop rates. Measuring inflation and sticky prices; how to trade markets that are not predicting recession: What if the markets are wrong? Goldilocks is the preferred forecast; theme for the year will be "Audible;" P. Phil’s track record (40% correct); what market sectors are likely to perform better in a "Goldilocks" environment? Growth vs

2023-01-30

(1/30/23) As January comes to a positive close, investors face a wall of worry: A cluster of moving averages are trending upward, a near-record level of cash in money markets, and what if the Fed cuts rates in July? Ah-ha, but what if the Fed raises rates this week by a half-point instead of a quarter?? What will Jerome Powell say? Philadelphian’s climbing greased poles to celebrate Eagles’ advance to Super Bowl 57; Louisiana Senator John Kennedy’s advice on the debt crisis; the big risk to markets this week is what the Fed will say after its Wednesday meeting. Earnings Season rolls-on with typical results from lowered bars to exceed. Key question: What is the quality of earnings? Stocks w missed earnings are doing better than the over-achievers. The key inflation gauge = Money Supply

2023-01-27

Here is an encore presentation of the January 12, 2023 Lunch & Learn on Family Limited Partnerships with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Doren-Mayhew CPA, Chris Masters.
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2022-11-22

(11/22/22) Market movement can best be described as sideways, up only 2% for November. Oil Stocks are down 20% while energy stocks are only off 5%; so why would the Fed pivot? When it does, it won’t be good for equities. How is the crypto-phenomenon like the sub-prime crisis of bygone days? A discussion of what "pivot" is and is not; The Fed wants to take pressure off the labor market, and would be fine with 5% unemployment as a means of thwarting the wage-price spiral. A comparison of economics, then and now; The Fed’s rate hikes this year haven’t hit yet, but when they do… the "lag effect" is being under-calculated.
3:10 – Markets Not Doing Much of Anything, Moving Sideways
14:34 – Why Would the Fed Pivot?
30:24 – I Don’t Think Pivot Means What You Think it Means
44:22 – What Happens

2022-11-17

Here is an encore presentation of the November 15, 2022 Lunch & Learn. our Year End Economic Review with RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and special guest Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts.

01:00 – That Was the Year That Was
03:52 – What to do with Cash?
08:55 – The Wisdom in Buying Bonds
Why Inflation Doesn’t Really Matter over the long haul
Safer is Always Better: What’s that look like?
What’s the best positioning?
Dealing with the Dollar
Dealing with Gold
What to do about Retirement at the wrong time?
What the Midterms Mean for Markets?
What about stocks that deserve to be down: The FTX Story
Cryptocurrency & Gov’t. Regulation
When We We Have a Recession?
Rapid fire:
Structured notes (leave them alone)

2022-11-10

(11/10/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before CPI for October was reported at 7.7% YOY, and down from September’s 8.2%] Markets sold off more than 2% following a"meh" midterm outcome, breaking through the 50- and 20-DMA, holding on somewhat tenuously. It’s important that markets rally above those levels today, otherwise there’ll be a retest of lows seen back in June of this year. The MACD sell-signal is close to flipping, suggesting markets will try to move lower, short-term. If today’s CPI comes out better (lower)-than-expected (it did), stocks could rally higher, staving off that sell signal. Where we close this week will dictate the markets’ next move. The implosion of the FTX-Binance deal roiled markets yesterday, with many high-dollar and high-profile investors sucked into the

2022-11-04

(11/4/22) The souring economy is causing corporations to take pause, cutting staff and dealing with increased cost of debt, thanks to interest rate hikes. We’ve been here before; it just feels worse now. Halloween recap, Thanksgiving inflation and making menu choices; the change in I-Bond rates: Still a good deal? No new toys for Christmas; do you need a family CFO? Planning ahead for end-of-life. Guidelines for lending money to family and friends: Be willing to lose what you’ve lent; put it in writing. End of Year checklist; 9 things every retiree should do.

3:10 – Companies Take a Pause
14:33 – Halloween Recap
17:29 – Thanksgiving Inflation & Menu Options
21:51 – I-bond Changes
30:28 – No Bling for Christmas
32:46 – Do You Need a Family CFO?
44:29 – Guidelines for Lending to Family &