Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene (Part 2)

Last week, we discussed the risk of an oil shock leading to a recession. To wit: "After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got …

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4-9-26 US–Iran Deal: What Investors Must Watch Next

Markets are reacting fast to signs of a potential resolution between the U.S. and Iran—but what should investors actually focus on next? A ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough can spark a powerful short-term rally, driven by falling oil prices, easing geopolitical risk, and improved sentiment. But history shows these moves are often just the beginning—not the end—of the real story. Jon Penn & Michael Lebowitz break down the key signals...

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Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support

Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable …

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The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom …

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The Berkshire War Chest: A Crisis Hedge?

Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy stocks on the open market but largely to offer companies private deals that ordinary investors … Continue...

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An IPO Surge Hides Behind The Fog Of War

While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year. As an appetizer, Anthropic, the Claude maker founded by …

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4-7-26 AI Advertising Explained: How Brands Win Inside ChatGPT

AI is changing how consumers discover businesses, make decisions, and trust information. Lance Roberts visits with Joseph Levi, Co-founder & CEO of Noise Media, about how advertising inside AI platforms like ChatGPT and Claude.AI could reshape marketing, SEO, and brand building. #AIAdvertising #ChatGPTMarketing #FutureOfSearch #DigitalMarketingStrategy #AIForBusiness

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Is A Squeeze In Bonds Coming?

As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions in TLT and Treasury futures were near historically elevated levels, reflecting a broad consensus that …

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The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?

Last week, the stock market rally was one of the best performances in nearly a year. The S&P 500 surged 3.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.4%, and the bulls declared the correction over. As I have stated before, having watched markets for more than 35 years, I have come to recognize the difference between a relief … Continue reading »

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Consecutive Weekly Declines & Fading Rallies

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Market Rebounds On Resolution Hopes March closed as the worst quarter for the S&P 500 since 2022, with the index down roughly 7% on the quarter and every member of the Magnificent Seven finishing in the red. This past holiday-shortened trading week saw a sharp reflexive relief …

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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …

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4-2-26 The Fed Is TRAPPED… And Oil Is The Problem

#CrudeOil rices are rising, and that’s creating a roblem the Fed can’t fix. Higher oil ushes inflation u, but it also slows growth by hitting consumers and businesses. This is a suly shock driven by geoolitics, not demand, so rate olicy has limited imact. As a result, the bond market is starting to shift focus from inflation risk to weakening GDP. Historically, oil shocks lead to slower growth, and this time the economy was already soft...

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4-2-26 Dynamic Learning Series – Tax Strategies: Beyond Filing: Avoid Penalties & Plan Smarter

Tax planning is no longer seasonal—it’s strategic. In this Dynamic Learning Series presentation, Danny Ratliff and Sarah Buenger break down the new tax landscape and walk through actionable strategies investors, retirees, and business owners can use right now to reduce lifetime tax liability and improve long-term wealth outcomes. We begin with the biggest shifts shaping today’s tax environment and highlight the “low-hanging fruit” opportunities...

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4-2-26 Fed Trap? Markets Face Inflation, Oil & Treasury Sell-Off

Markets are hitting a critical inflection point—and the stakes are rising fast. A major policy speech from Donald Trump sparked volatility, just as markets tested a key cluster of technical resistance. Now investors are facing a bigger question: is the market environment shifting from a short-term rally to something more structural? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: * Why elevated oil prices could reignite inflation and complicate...

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Volume Profiles: Eyeing Resistance From Trapped Longs?

Volume profiling provides unique insight into the profit-and-loss position of recent investors by identifying price levels at which significant buying and selling have occurred. Areas of high volume can act as powerful support and resistance levels because they represent prices at which a large number of investors have established positions and are therefore likely to …

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4-1-26 Why Trading More = Less Money (No Fooling!)

Trading more doesn’t mean making more. In fact, the data shows the opposite. Most traders combine leverage with short-term speculation, which works in strong trends but falls apart quickly when conditions change. That’s why 97% of traders lose money over time. The problem isn’t the market, it’s the behavior. As holding periods shrink and activity increases, returns decline. Long-term investing may feel slower, but it’s far more consistent....

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3-31-26 The Truth About Market Corrections

Markets have declined for five straight weeks, pushing conditions into deeply oversold territory across stocks, bonds, and commodities. This kind of stretch typically leads to a short-term reflex rally lasting one to two weeks as positioning resets. While volatility has increased due to external shocks and shifting expectations, the broader bullish trend remains intact. Corrections of this size are normal and occur every year. The key is to...

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4-1-26 Wives Take Over: Money, Marriage, and Real Talk

What happens when the wives take over the show? For this special April Fool’s Day edition of #TheRealInvestmentShow, the tables are turned as Michelle Ratliff & Christina Roberts step in to answer the questions investors never hear. From what Lance and Danny would really be doing outside of wealth management, to what happens if they suddenly win the lottery, we blend humor with surprisingly real financial insight. We also dig into the...

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The Kohn Solution For An Uncertain Fed

Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled "How to Respond to Oil Shocks." His analysis draws on the Fed's history to address how it should respond to today's oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf War, he discovered a proposal by Don Kohn, senior Fed staffer, that offers a solution … Continue reading...

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Beta: A Powerful But Faulty Tool For Managing Risk

When investors want to reduce risk, one commonly used tool is beta. For instance, an investor may sell higher-beta stocks and replace them with lower-beta ones to cushion against an expected market decline. Such a strategy is intuitive and widely used; however, it can be greatly flawed. We recently received a question from a client …

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