Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Could ELECTION SHENANIGANS Investigation UNCOVER Something DEEPER?

2020-11-06

We are not brokers, investment or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. We are a marketing company. If you are seeking personal investment advice, please contact a qualified and registered broker, investment adviser or financial adviser.

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Markets Gyrate Ahead of Protracted Period of Uncertainty

2020-11-06

by Win Thin

2020-11-06

Markets likely facing an extended period of uncertainty; the dollar is seeing some safe haven bid but is well off its highs. Despite President Trump’s claim of victory and his call to halt vote counting and go to the Supreme Court, it’s important to emphasize that the election is simply not over yet; asset prices are sending a cacophony of signals as investors struggle to price multiple possibilities.

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Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About (w/ Steven Van Metre & Jeff Snider)

2020-11-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as "money"? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider...

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Counting The Corroborated Stall, Not The Coming Lawfare Election Mess

2020-11-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-11-06

While we wait for the electoral count to be sorted out by what we hope are competent and honest people (not holding our breath), there’s a greater muddle growing where it actually counts and where it’s never fully nor properly accounted. By a large and growing number of accounts, the US economy’s rebound seems to have stalled out back around June or July, an inflection unrelated to COVID case counts, too.

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Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

2020-11-05

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-11-05

With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible – or if this is still just one three-yearlong squeeze of a global dollar shortage.

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FOMC Preview: Coronavirus Daily Change

2020-11-04

by Win Thin

2020-11-04

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4.

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Dollar Firm at Start of Very Eventful Week

2020-11-03

by Win Thin

2020-11-03

Oil prices continue their rapid decline due to both supply and demand concerns; the dollar is trading at the top end of recent trading ranges. This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory; one day ahead of the elections, the implied odds remain roughly at the same levels as they have been for the last few weeks; October ISM manufacturing PMI will start the ball rolling for a key US data week.

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Election 2020: What has President Trump done to America? | The Economist

2020-10-31

by The Economist

In the 2020 election, President Donald Trump will be judged on his handling of the covid-19 pandemic. But what else will be his legacy if he loses? Further content: Find The Economist’s coverage of the US elections: https://econ.st/3mwsMa4 Sign up to The Economist’s weekly “Checks and Balance” newsletter on American politics: https://econ.st/3l5C4dl See The Economist’s 2020 presidential election forecast: https://econ.st/35JCkI2 Listen to...

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Dollar Bid as Markets Steady Ahead of ECB Decision

2020-10-31

by Win Thin

2020-10-31

Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors. The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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What’s Going On, And Why Late August?

2020-10-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-10-29

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?

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Flying Blind: Clueless about Risk, We’re Speeding Toward Systemic Failure

2020-10-29

by Charles Hugh Smith

2020-10-29

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There's an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it.

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ECB Preview

2020-10-28

by Win Thin

2020-10-28

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Start the Week in Risk-Off Mode

2020-10-28

by Win Thin

2020-10-28

Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note. Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-10-26

by Win Thin

2020-10-26

EM FX took advantage once again of broad dollar weakness. Most EM currencies were up last week against the dollar, with the only exceptions being ARS, TRY, INR, THB, PEN, and MYR. We expect the dollar to remain under pressure this week and so EM should remain bid.

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