Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues

There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree but I don’t let my personal political views dictate how I view the economy for purposes of investing.

Read More »

China Prices Include Lots of Base Effect, Still Undershoots

By far, the easiest to answer for today’s inflation/boom trifecta is China’s CPI. At 2.9% in February 2018, that’s the closest it has come to the government’s definition of price stability (3%) since October 2013. That, in the mainstream, demands the description “hot” if not “sizzling” even though it still undershoots. The primary reason behind the seeming acceleration was a more intense move in food prices.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month.

Read More »

China Exports: Trump Tariffs, Booming Growth, or Tainted Trade?

China’s General Administration of Customs reported that Chinese exports to all other countries were in February 2018 an incredible 44.5% more than they were in February 2017. Such a massive growth rate coming now has served to intensify the economic boom narrative.

Read More »

Forget “Free Trade”–It’s All About Capital Flows

Defenders and critics of "free trade" and globalization tend to present the issue as either/or: it's inherently good or bad. In the real world, it's not that simple. The confusion starts with defining free trade (and by extension, globalization).

Read More »

CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse

Economic collapse and financial crisis is rising any moment. Getting informed about collapse and crisis may earn you, or prevent to lose money. SUBSCRIBE FINANCIAL GUIDE for Latest on Financial News,Gold News,Silver News, Stock Market News,Bitcoin News,Political News,Oil News,Economic News,Economic Collapse News ..

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith What’s Your Job Worth work, money and automation

Charles Hugh Smith What’s Your Job Worth work, money and automation

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

Indonesia will freeze prices for electricity, gasoline, and diesel fuel until next year. US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong Un will hold a summit meeting this spring. National Bank of Poland has tilted even more dovish. Moody’s downgraded Turkey a notch to Ba2 with a stable outlook. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister hinted that the Aramco IPO could be delayed until 2019. Tanzania finally obtained a sovereign rating after years of...

Read More »

March 24, 2018 ! Charles Hugh Smith Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse

Please Subscribe to my NEW Channel! Thank You. March 24, 2018 ! Charles Hugh Smith Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse. Financial writer Charles Hugh Smith sees one very big problem coming at us, and that is a dramatic loss in buying power of the U.S. dollar, but it’s not just …

Read More »

How powerful is your passport? | The Economist

Passports can tell you a lot about a country. Colour can be a statement of national identity, state religion, or international co-operation. But not all passports are equal. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2Gbhx2T Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://econ.st/2GeS3C1 Check …

Read More »

The Death of Buy and Hold: We’re All Traders Now

The percentage of household assets invested in stocks fell from almost 40% in 1969 to a mere 13% in 1982, after thirteen years of grinding losses. The conventional wisdom of financial advisors--to save money and invest it in stocks and bonds "for the long haul"--a "buy and hold" strategy that has functioned as the default setting of financial planning for the past 60 years--may well be disastrously wrong for the next decade.

Read More »

Jeffrey Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss gold swaps, how central banks engage in them and what has changed in gold swap markets today. They further investigate the gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes” and what happened to gold in the 2008 crisis. They finally touch on …

Read More »

Is the pope head of the world’s most powerful government? | The Economist

Is the pope head of the world’s most powerful government? The pope represents over one billion people, his government has a permanent presence at the United Nations and he runs the oldest diplomatic service on earth. We asked the man behind the Vatican’s foreign policy to explain how the world’s smallest country could house the …

Read More »

China Going Boom

For a very long time, they tried it “our” way. It isn’t working out so well for them any longer, so in one sense you can’t blame them for seeking answers elsewhere. It was a good run while it lasted. The big problem is that what “it” was wasn’t ever our way. Not really. The Chinese for decades followed not a free market paradigm but an orthodox Economics one. This is no trivial difference, as the latter is far more easily accomplished in a place...

Read More »

Can conservation save our ocean? | The Economist

The ocean is facing its greatest ever challenge – overfishing, pollution and climate change are all threatening the health of a resource on which the whole world depends. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2G3TH9d The crew of this ship is on a mission to try and save one of the most …

Read More »

Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising

So who's holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo's equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low.

Read More »

Jeffrey Snider // Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them

Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss: — Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them — What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done.

Read More »

China: February PMIs point to deceleration in industrial activity

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for February, compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in at 50.3, down from 51.3 in January and 51.6 in December 2017. This is the lowest reading of this gauge since October 2016. The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI), however, edged up slightly to 51.6 in February from 51.5 in the previous month

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a largely softer week.  Best performers last week for MYR and TWD while the worst were ZAR and ARS.  US stocks clawed back early losses and ended the week on a firmer note but we think further market turbulence is likely. 

Read More »