Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Weakness Continues Ahead of ECB Decision

2021-01-22

Brazil Central Bank and Data, 2015 - 2020

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the US; three Democratic Senators were also sworn in; weekly jobless claims data will be the highlight of an otherwise quiet week; Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue to roll out; Brazil kept rates on hold at 2.0%, as expected ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged; Norges Bank kept rates steady at 0%, as expected;

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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of Inauguration

2021-01-21

by Win Thin

2021-01-21

President-elect Biden will be inaugurated and becomes the 46th President of the United States at noon; he will hit the ground running by announcing a raft of executive orders upon taking office; Janet Yellen’s confirmation hearing was revealing; Canada and Brazil are expected to keep rates unchanged.

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How Biden can be a global leader | The Economist

2021-01-19

by The Economist

Joe Biden's greatest challenge will be to repair America's reputation—currently the lowest it's been for two decades. How can the new president re-boot America's global leadership? Find our latest coverage of the presidential transition: https://econ.st/3bJeoJm Sign up to our weekly newsletter on American politics: https://econ.st/3l5C4dl Listen to Checks and Balance, our podcast about American politics: https://econ.st/2EmBIOU The World in...

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2021-01-19

by Win Thin

2021-01-19

President-elect Biden will be inaugurated Wednesday; security in Washington DC and many state capitols has been beefed up due to concerns of violence; the Senate reconvenes Tuesday and will immediately begin work on confirming Biden’s cabinet choices; reports suggest that if asked, Yellen will disavow a weak dollar policy whilst affirming commitment to a market-determined exchange rate.

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Politics Get Weird, Markets Don’t Care

2021-01-19

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2021-01-19

A mob, led by a shirtless man wearing a Viking helmet, stormed the Capitol building a couple of weeks ago and five people died before order was restored. A man from upstate New York sat in a Senator’s office and smoked a joint. Another roamed the halls of Congress with a Confederate flag.

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Consumers, Producers, and the Unsettled End of 2020

2021-01-17

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-01-17

U.S. Retail Sales, NSA, Jan 1993 - Jul 2020

The months of November and December aren’t always easily comparable year to year when it comes to American shopping habits. For a retailer, these are the big ones. The Christmas shopping season and the amount of spending which takes place during it makes or breaks the typical year (though last year, there was that whole thing in March and April which has had a say in each’s final annual condition).

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If the Fed’s Not In Consumer Prices, Then How About Producer Prices?

2021-01-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-01-16

U.S. CPI Services Core Fed, Jan 1985 - -2020

It’s not just that there isn’t much inflation evident in consumer prices. Rather, it’s a pretty big deal given the deluge of so much “money printing” this year, begun three-quarters of a year before, that consumer prices are increasing at some of the slowest rates in the data.

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Dollar Regains Some Traction as Markets Search for Direction

2021-01-14

by Win Thin

2021-01-14

House Democrats will move ahead with impeachment proceedings today; December CPI data will be the US highlight; heavy UST supply this week wraps up with a $24 bln sale of 30-year bonds; December monthly budget statement will be of interest the Fed releases its Beige Book report; several Fed officials pushed back against notions of tapering anytime soon

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Central Bank Omnipotence: Can They Spark Growth & Inflation?

2021-01-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves.

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How can business survive climate change? | The Economist

2021-01-13

by The Economist

Climate change is about to upend the corporate world through weather-related disasters, regulation and lawsuits. Can businesses react and adapt in time? Read more here: https://econ.st/3slTXIE Read The Economist’s special report on business and climate change: https://econ.st/3bbckJZ Sign up to The Economist’s fortnightly climate change newsletter: https://econ.st/3b8FQ3c Find our most recent climate change coverage: https://econ.st/3pQLYkq...

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Dollar Runs Out of Steam as Sterling Leads the Way

2021-01-12

by Win Thin

2021-01-12

The US curve continues to steepen; real US yields have become less negative; UST supply will remain an issue as $38 bln of 10-year notes will be sold today; Brazil reports December IPCA inflation.

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They’ve Gone Too Far (or have they?)

2021-01-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-01-10

Between November 1998 and February 1999, Japan’s government bond (JGB) market was utterly decimated. You want to find an historical example of a real bond rout (no caps nor exclamations necessary), take a look at what happened during those three exhilarating (if you were a government official) months.

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There’s Always A First Time

2021-01-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-01-09

Is it a race against time? Or is it trying to set aside today so as to focus entirely on a specific kind of tomorrow? It’s easy to do the latter especially when today is what it is; you can’t change what’s already gone on.

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Inflation: could covid-19 cause prices to rise? | The Economist

2021-01-08

by The Economist

In the past two decades inflation has puzzled economists by remaining low in good times and bad. Could the pandemic cause it to rise? Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3aor3kg Find all of our finance and economics coverage: https://econ.st/3nsEfZm Read our special report about how inflation is losing its meaning as an economic indicator: https://econ.st/3noSaPY How to...

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