Category Archive: 5) Global Macro
When Social Capital Becomes More Valuable Than Financial Capital
This devaluation of financial wealth--and its transformation to a dangerous liability--
will reach extremes equal to the current extremes of wealth-income inequality.
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Dollar Continues to Soften Ahead of FOMC Decision
Optimism on a stimulus deal remains high; the FOMC decision will be key; the dollar tends to weaken on recent FOMC decision days November retail sales will be the US data highlight; Markit reports preliminary December PMI readings; Canada reports November CPI
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Jeff Snider (Shadow Money, Derivatives, Free Banking, Bitcoin, “Money Printing”)
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Consumers, Too; (Un)Confident To Re-engage
There is a lot of evidence which shows some basis for expectations-based monetary policy. Much of what becomes a recession or worse is due to the psychological impacts upon businesses (who invest and hire) as well as workers being consumers (who earn and then spend).
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Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About (w/ Steven Van Metre & Jeff Snider)
Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as money?
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What Did Hamper Growth ‘In A Few Months’
Over here, on the other side of that ocean, the US economy can only dream of the low levels Chinese industry has been putting up this late into 2020. At least those in the East are back positive year-over-year. Here in America, manufacturing and industry can’t even manage anything like a plus sign.
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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report
The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report named Switzerland and Vietnam as currency manipulators. Both countries came under scrutiny in the last report and so this week’s announcement was only surprising in that it was made by a lame duck administration that will be gone in a month.
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What is history’s deadliest pandemic? | The Economist
The covid-19 pandemic may have derailed the world in 2020, but a far deadlier disease has shaped human history for thousands of years. Malaria defeated armies, fuelled the slave trade and jump-started the modern environmental movement.
How covid-19 hinders the fight against malaria: https://econ.st/3gAsfCj
Why malaria prevention needs to be fine-tuned: https://econ.st/3oEGhFE
Mapping humanity’s progress in its fight against malaria:...
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Can 20 Years of Deflation Be Compressed into Two Years? We’re About to Find Out
Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020.
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This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word
Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality.Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and...
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FOMC Preview
The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in the coming months.
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One Little Problem with the “All-Electric” Auto Fleet: What Do We Do with all the “Waste” Gasoline?
Regardless of what happens with vaccines and Covid-19, debt and energy--inextricably bound as debt funds consumption-- will destabilize the global economy in a self-reinforcing feedback.
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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 37 Part 2
Europe's latest PMI scores tell us the continent is falling into re-recession, perhaps not unlike Japan. Where did the momentum disappear to? The USA has better PMIs but should that give us comfort?
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Drivers for the Week Ahead
The Senate passed a stopgap bill late Friday that will keep the government funded until midnight this Friday; optimism on a stimulus deal appears to be picking up; the two-day FOMC meeting ending with a decision Wednesday will be important.
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Inflation Hysteria #2 (Slack-edotes)
Macroeconomic slack is such an easy, intuitive concept that only Economists and central bankers (same thing) could possibly mess it up. But mess it up they have. Spending years talking about a labor shortage, and getting the financial media to report this as fact, those at the Federal Reserve, in particular, pointed to this as proof QE and ZIRP had fulfilled the monetary policy mandates – both of them.
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Inflation Hysteria #2 (WTI)
Sticking with our recent theme, a big part of what Inflation Hysteria #1 (2017-18) also had going for it was loosened restrictions for US oil producers. Seriously.
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Ep 127- Jeffrey Snider “How Do Swap Lines Work?”
Jeff Snider is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments, and here he explains how ridiculous the swap line system is. Swap lines don't work like how most people think they work.
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Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision
Stimulus talks drag on; US November CPI will be today’s data highlight; US Treasury wraps up a big week of auctions today with $24 bln of 30-year bonds on offer. The November budget statement will hold some interest; weekly jobless claims will be closely watched;
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How to restore trust in politics | The Economist
In America, Britain and other Western countries, voters have lost trust in politics. Is the answer to reboot an ancient idea? Read more here: https://econ.st/3ov9kvo
Sign up to our weekly newsletter: https://econ.st/37NpM3E
Can citizens assemblies save democracy?: https://econ.st/37zAtXf
Can ordinary people solve the political deadlock?: https://econ.st/3qsTTps
How can we bring polarised societies together? https://econ.st/3qp5k1v
How...
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