Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?

2012-08-16

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2012-08-16

Fed's Fav Inflation Expectations WSJ
  At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if  needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …

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Volatility ETFs’ crazy churn

2012-08-10

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2012-08-10

VIX-ETFs
Two volatility ETFs (VXX and UVXY) are having almost half of the trading volume in the world’s largest ETF (SPY). How come?   First, the facts:   SPY is heavily traded (19% of assets daily turnover) compared to IVV (also referring to the S&P 500). But then come the volatility ETFs. Tiny VIXY (assets $145m) … Continue reading...

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

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2012-08-07

Global PMIs July 2012
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class

Lifecycle of Financialization, Emergence, Expansion, Maturity, Stagnation, Crisis: Ti
The neofeudal colonization of the "home market" has transformed the middle class into debt serfs. According to the conventional account, the Great American Middle Class has been eroded by rising energy costs, globalization, and the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the four decades since 1973.

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07-10-12 – CENTRAL PLANNING – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS

2012-07-12

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Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss the proven failure of Centralized Planning and why this lesson must be revisited today to avoid the authoritarian roadmap we appear to be presently on.

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07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I I – Charles Hugh Smith- MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

2012-07-12

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In Part II of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this increasingly likely destination point.

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07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS

2012-07-12

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In Part I of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this potential destructive destination.

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Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview

2012-07-06

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2012-07-06

Bloomberg Estimate
A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

2012-06-10

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2012-06-10

5 year FAV Credit Suisse
The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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05-29-12 – PEAK EVERYTHING – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

2012-06-09

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Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss how the financial markets are showing a mulitude of signs of clear peaks. Peaks across the board that are linked by cause and effect. Altogether, they can best be described as “PEAK EVERYTHING”.

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The latest bubble: Real estate in Russia

2012-06-01

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2012-06-01

Global House Prices
Still a draft, From Barnaul, Siberia, Russia Inna, 28, is a high-school teacher, she has one child. Her monthly salary is 8’500 Russian Rubel, about 257 USD. Similarly as many state employees her salary is very low. Recently the state doubled the salary of policemen and soldiers from 20’000 RUB to 40’000 RUB. A main …

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05-26-12 – CRONY CAPITALISM – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv

2012-05-29

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Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss Crony Capitalism. What is it, the central issues it is presently causing and what can and must be done to stop its insidious and relentless expansion in America.

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The vicious cycle of the US economy or why the US dollar must ultimately fall again

2012-05-22

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2012-05-22

Core PCE
Just some simple words about the vicious cycle of the US economy and the consequences on the US dollar: A stronger USD will not rescue the US economy, quite the contrary. US companies will not hire in the US, but outsource or hire overseas. If they hire in the US, due to the high number …

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Charles Hugh Smith discusses the Global Neo-Liberal Capitalistic System

2012-05-19

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REFERENCE: http://vimeo.com/7743478 BROADCAST YEAR: 2011 ABOUT Charles Hugh Smith: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/charles-hugh-smith Charles Hugh Smith Official Website: www.oftwominds.com Amazon.com Charles Hugh Smith: http://www.amazon.com/Charles-Hugh-Smith/e/B001K8B05U Charles Hugh Smith (related links): http://vimeo.com/28345594 (2011) http://youtu.be/G1zKe8UWlHo (2011) http://youtu.be/VTVIVfyNV4A (2012) http://youtu.be/81hcIhuBss8...

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The Chinese Government, a bubble creator or when finally does China consume ?

2012-05-12

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2012-05-12

The years 2009 to 2011 have seen four institutions that created bubbles in commodity, stock and real estate markets. 2008 and 2009 saw the massive Keynesian interventions by the US state and the Chinese government. In 2009 the first Quantitative Easing measures enabled a first flood of hot money into Emerging Markets. Summer 2010 witnessed …

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Forget Non-Farm Payrolls, Take US Personal Disposable Income as Lead Economic Indicator

2012-05-06

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2012-05-06

United States Disposable Income 2009
The unreliable Non-Farm Payrolls has far too much importance  Interesting to see that markets needed two relatively bad NFPs to really believe that their main indicators, the “Non-Farm Payroll” reports were strongly biased in January and February by a positive weather effect. HFT algorithms that highly influence stock market prices, are not able to take …

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05-05-12 DOOMED AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS – Charles Hugh Smith – Macro Analytics – .wmv

2012-05-04

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Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith debate the future of the American Middle Class.

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05-03-12 – US HOUSING: Shifting Perceptions and Demographics – Charles Hugh Smith.wmv

2012-05-03

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Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith follow up on their “Generational Cycles” presentation and continue with a discussion on the shifitng perceptions and demographics which are now impacting the US Housing industry.

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