Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Again Flawed Data for Jobs
Some ten days ago, we examined in detail why the monthly job data was no conspiracy as Jack Welch maintained, but simply flawed. Similarly as David Rosenberg we said that the way the BLS obtains data for the household survey was error-prone. Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg That the 7.8 percent jobless rate takes it to the …
Read More »
Read More »
IMF World Economic Outlook
Alexander Gloy is founder and president of Lighthouse Investment Management The IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) “World Economic Outlook”, a slim 250-page piece, came out. Some excerpts: Substantial reductions in estimated output (GDP) growth for 2013 for all major countries: Unemployment in the Euro-Area (“EA”) is now expected to rise above the level …
Read More »
Read More »
Conspiracy? Why the Jobs Report Was not Cooked, but simply Flawed
Conspiracy ? Huge Differences Between the Payrolls Report and the Household Survey based on the extracts of Robert Oak, Noslaves.com and his blog on Economic Populist It’s a conspiracy! The BLS is trying to swing the election! They’re cookin’ de books! By now you’ve seen the claims, accusations and mumblings by the pundits, press, twitter and blogosphere. So …
Read More »
Read More »
09 25 12 Macro Analytics Federal Reserve False Perceptions Part 2 Charles Hugh Smith
The Federal Reserve and its Monetary Malpractice is at the core of the American Dream becoming a myth for the vast majority of Americans. Jobs, disposable income and financial security are all under pressure, as the Federal Reserve continues its historic monetary gamble on unproven policies of Quantitative Easing and ZIRP. Charles Hugh Smith and …
Read More »
Read More »
The “Beautiful” De-Leveraging
A beautiful deleveraging balances the three options. In other words, there is a certain amount of austerity, there is a certain amount of debt restructuring, and there is a certain amount of printing of money. When done in the right mix, it isn’t dramatic. It doesn’t produce too much deflation or too much depression. There is slow growth, but it is positive slow growth. At the same time, ratios of debt-to-incomes go down. That’s a beautiful...
Read More »
Read More »
It’s not simply QE3
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...
Read More »
Read More »
09-11-12-Macro Analytics – Marginal Return – Charles Hugh Smith
When risk factored returns are examined around the world, there is a very evident pattern. Without the application of excessive leverage, returns are consistently seen to be wanting. Unrecognized, ignored or ineffectively hedged risk is being increasingly being assumed to achieve marginal returns. Moral Hazard and Unintended Consequences due to Monetary Malpractice has left the …
Read More »
Read More »
09-08-12-Macro Analytics – INEQUALITY Precedes SOCIAL UNREST – Charles Hugh Smith
Over the last decade the gap between the ‘have’s’ and ‘have nots’ has widened to levels not seen since the Gilded Age in America. History teaches us that the price of inequality is social unrest. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz in his new book “Freefall” outlines how the American Dream is now a myth. The middle …
Read More »
Read More »
Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?
Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
Brad DeLong on Jackson Hole and Quantitative Easing
Berkeley Professor Brad DeLong has delivered a nice allegorical entry in his type pad on a quick Quantitative Easing. Letting speak old greek mythological figures he hides his personal opinion. A half now completely written platonic dialogue on what the Federal Reserve is Doing — or not Doing — Right Now DeLong explains the …
Read More »
Read More »
Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus. They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions. They can contemplate the future, but there …
Read More »
Read More »
Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?
At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …
Read More »
Read More »
Volatility ETFs’ crazy churn
Two volatility ETFs (VXX and UVXY) are having almost half of the trading volume in the world’s largest ETF (SPY). How come? First, the facts: SPY is heavily traded (19% of assets daily turnover) compared to IVV (also referring to the S&P 500). But then come the volatility ETFs. Tiny VIXY (assets $145m) … Continue reading...
Read More »
Read More »
Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …
Read More »
Read More »
Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class
The neofeudal colonization of the "home market" has transformed the middle class into debt serfs. According to the conventional account, the Great American Middle Class has been eroded by rising energy costs, globalization, and the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in the four decades since 1973.
Read More »
Read More »
07-10-12 – CENTRAL PLANNING – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS
Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss the proven failure of Centralized Planning and why this lesson must be revisited today to avoid the authoritarian roadmap we appear to be presently on.
Read More »
Read More »
07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I I – Charles Hugh Smith- MACRO ANALYTICS.wmv
In Part II of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this increasingly likely destination point.
Read More »
Read More »
07-03-12 – STATISM – Part I – Charles Hugh Smith – MACRO ANALYTICS
In Part I of this 2 part series, Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith discuss Statism and how the US has placed itself on a self reinforcing roadmap towards this potential destructive destination.
Read More »
Read More »
The End of Swiss and Japanese Deflation
At a time of speculations about global deflation, we show an interesting and very different aspect. Our CPI and wage data comparison among different developed countries, shows that Switzerland and Japan will see both inflation, whereas other countries like Australia will see disinflation.
Read More »
Read More »