Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

As part of the Daily Watch ‘drugs week’ we explore what the world might look like if legalisation replaces the failing war on drugs. Join Tom Wainwright, Britain editor of The Economist and author of Narconomics, as he predicts what would happen to the cartels Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 …

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-11-27

2016-11-27

EM ended last week on a somewhat firmer note, though we note divergences remain in place. For the week, ZAR and KRW performed the best while TRY and BRL were the worst. US jobs data Friday will draw some attention, though a December Fed rate hike is pretty much fully priced in.

Read More »

Why Is the US Dollar Rising?

2016-11-26

2016-11-26

Note the apparent breakout above 100 and the constructive similarities to the 2014 breakout that was followed by a 20% increase in the purchasing power of the USD relative to other currencies.

Read More »

The New Nobility Uses Political Correctness to Fragment the Precariats

2016-11-26

2016-11-26

Combine identity politics with political correctness, and the New Nobility/Oligarchy can laugh their way to the bank while their pawn-serfs fight over how many politically correct angels can dance on the head of a pin.

Read More »

How Do We Create Value When Knowledge Is Almost Free?

2016-11-26

2016-11-26

Credentials are increasingly in over-supply; problem-solving skills are scarce. How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and "unownable" and therefore almost free. Financialization as a substitute for creating value has run its course.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-11-25

2016-11-25

Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term. South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage. Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative. Turkey’s central bank surprised markets with a 50 bp hike in its benchmark repo rate to 8.0%. Political risk in Brazil is rising as President Temer’s top aide was implicated in an influence peddling...

Read More »

Could volcanoes counter climate change? | The Economist

2016-11-25

Three years ago today, Mount Sinabung, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, unleashed volcanic ash up to 16,400 feet. It has erupted again on multiple occasions since. The searing gases released by volcanoes like Sinabung can have one surprising impact on the planet Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Global warming …

Read More »

Healthcare: Inflation Hidden in Plain Sight

2016-11-24

2016-11-24

Charles Hugh Smith shows how health care costs are exploding in the United States and how this will lead sooner or later to inflation.

Read More »

Sykes-Picot: Carving up the Middle East | The Economist

2016-11-24

In 1915 British diplomat Mark Sykes described for The Economist the battle underway in the Middle East. A few months later he carved up control of the region with his French counterpart Francois George Picot. The impact of the secret agreement they reached is still being felt today Click here to subscribe to The Economist …

Read More »

Philip Hammond’s plan to help JAMs to stimulate Britain’s economy

2016-11-23

Philip Hammond, Britain’s chancellor, makes his first autumn statement today on the government’s tax and spending priorities. Our word of the day considers the target of his plans to stimulate the economy: the citizens who are “just about managing”, otherwise known as JAMs. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: …

Read More »

Why Reshore Manufacturing? It’s the Only Way to Avoid Defective Pirated Parts

2016-11-23

2016-11-23

If you want to lose your brand, your pricing power and your customers, by all means, rely on a global supply chain filled with defective parts that cannot possibly be detected. Reshoring the entire supply chain so it can be trusted is the low-cost solution once you add up the total lifecycle costs of a hopelessly counterfeit global supply chain.

Read More »

Bloodhound’s attempt to break the world land speed record | The Economist

2016-11-21

An attempt will be made to drive faster than the speed of sound—at 800mph—and break the world land speed record. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 In October 2017 the eyes of the world will be on the Kalahari Desert. At South Africa’s Hakskeen Pan, the Bloodhound Supersonic team will attempt …

Read More »

The Age of Disintegration: Political Disunity and Elites At War

2016-11-21

2016-11-21

Distribution of Wealth in the US Since 1917

Historian Michael Grant identified profound political disunity in the ruling elite as a key cause of the dissolution of the Roman Empire. Grant described this dynamic in his excellent account The Fall of the Roman Empire. The chapter titles of the book illuminate the complex causes of profound political disunity in the ruling elite: The Gulfs Between the Classes: a.k.a. soaring income/wealth inequality: check.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-11-20

2016-11-20

EM FX ended the week on a soft note, as higher US rates continue to take a toll. EM policymakers are getting more concerned about currency weakness, with Brazil, Malaysia, Korea, India, and Indonesia all taking action to help support their currencies. If the EM sell-off continues as we expect, more EM central banks are likely to act to slow the moves.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-11-19

2016-11-19

Malaysia appears to have enacted a subtle change in FX policy. Turkey cut foreign currency reserve requirements in an effort to increase the supply of foreign exchange. Brazil’s central bank suspended the sale of reverse currency swaps and started selling new regular swaps (equivalent to selling USD). Colombia reached a new peace agreement with FARC rebels. Mexico's central bank hiked cash rates by 50 bp.

Read More »

The Great Con: Political Correctness Has Marginalized the Working Class

2016-11-19

2016-11-19

So when the protected class of well-paid institutional "progressives" speak darkly of "reversing 40 years of social progress," what they're really saying is we're terrified that the bottom 95% might be waking up to our Great Con of identity politics and political correctness. To understand the Great Con of political correctness, we must first grasp the decline of the working class (self-described as "the middle class"), i.e. those who must sell...

Read More »

Are Emerging Markets Still “A Thing”?

2016-11-18

by Chris MacIntosh

2016-11-18

Last week I jumped on a call with an old friend Thomas Hugger who I hadn't spoken with in months. I recorded the call for your enjoyment but first a quick bit of background to Thomas. Thomas is a Swiss fund manager living and working in Asian frontier markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, which is a bit like taking a Rolls Royce through the Gobi desert if you think about it.

Read More »

You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization

2016-11-18

by George Washington

2016-11-18

You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said: Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.

Read More »

Rising Immigration but no Jobs

2016-11-17