Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-08-19

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2016-08-19

China unveiled a second equity link that will allow foreign investors to buy local stocks with fewer restrictions. Saudi Arabia will allow qualified foreign investors to subscribe to local IPOs starting this January. South Africa’s two main opposition parties agreed to informally band together in local governments. The Brazilian central bank decreased the daily intervention amount to 10,000 reverse swap contracts from 15,000 before, just a week...

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Norway: Towards Stagflation

2016-08-19

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2016-08-19

We have all heard the incredible stories of housing riches in commodity producing hotspots such as Western Australia and Canada. People have become millionaires simply by leveraging up and holding on to properties. These are the beneficiaries of a global money-printing spree that pre-dates the financial crisis by decades.

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What the Fed Hasn’t Fixed (and Actually Made Worse)

2016-08-19

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2016-08-19

The Fed has not only failed to fix what's broken in the U.S. economy--it has actively mad those problems worse. The Federal Reserve claims its monetary interventions saved America from economic ruin in 2009, and have bolstered growth ever since. Don't hurt yourself patting your own backs, Fed governors past and present: it's bad enough that the Fed can't fix the economy's real problems--its policies actively make them worse.

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It’s Time to Abolish the DEA and America’s “War on Drugs” Gulag

2016-08-18

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2016-08-18

It's difficult to pick the most destructive of America's many senseless, futile and tragically needless wars, but the "War on Drugs" is near the top of the list.Prohibition of mind-altering substances has not just failed--it has failed spectacularly, and generated extremely destructive and counterproductive consequences.

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Stupid is What Stupid Does – Secular Stagnation Redux

2016-08-17

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2016-08-17

Which country, the United States or Japan, have had the fastest GDP growth rate since the financial crisis? Due to Japan’s bad reputation as a stagnant, debt ridden, central bank dependent, demographic basket case the question appears superfluous. The answer seemed so obvious to us that we haven’t really bothered looking into it until one day we started thinking about the demographic situation in the two countries.

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The Odds of a Global Food Crisis Are Rising

2016-08-17

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2016-08-17

Given the current abundance of food globally, confidence in permanent food surpluses and low grain prices is high. Few worry that the present abundance of food could be temporary. But the global food supply is more fragile than we might think, despite historically low grain/agricultural commodity prices.

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Why Wages Have Stagnated–and Will Continue to Stagnate

2016-08-15

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2016-08-15

Mainstream economists are mystified why wages/salaries are still stagnant after 7+ years of growth / "recovery." The conventional view is that wages should be rising as the labor market tightens (i.e. the unemployment rate is low) and demand for workers increases in an expanding economy.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-08-15

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2016-08-15

EM FX ended the week on a soft note, despite the weaker than expected US retail sales report. Official concern about strong exchange rates is beginning to emerge. First it was Korea, then on Friday it was Brazil as acting President Temer said his country needs to maintain a balanced exchange rate, neither too weak nor too strong. We expect more pushback to emerge if the current rally is extended. Still, the global liquidity outlook for now favors...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-08-12

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2016-08-12

S&P upgraded Korea a notch to AA with a stable outlook. Voters passed the constitutional referendum in Thailand by a wide margin. The IMF and Egypt have reached a staff-level agreement on a 3-year $12 bln. loan program. Argentina’s central bank will begin using a new overnight rate to manage monetary policy. Political uncertainty has returned to Brazil.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-08-07

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2016-08-07

EM ended last week on a firm note, despite the stronger than expected July jobs report. As we suspected, one strong US data point is not yet enough to derail the dovish Fed outlook. With the RBA and BOE cutting last week and the RBNZ expected to cut this week, the global liquidity backdrop remains supportive for EM and risk.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

India’s upper house approved the creation of a Good and Services Tax (GST). The Polish government softened its stance on the proposed Swiss franc loan conversion plan. Support for South Africa’s ruling African. National Congress (ANC) appears to have fallen below 60% for the first time ever. Brazil’s Senate impeachment committee recommended putting President Rousseff on trial.

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Do boxers’ headguards protect them from concussion and injury? | The Economist

2016-08-05

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Male boxers will not wear headguards at the Olympic Games in Rio. According to a study by the sport’s governing body, there are fewer cases of concussion when headguards are not worn. However, a new imaging technology known as diffusion MRI could spot signs of potential brain injury at an early stage. Click here to …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-07-31

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2016-07-31

EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil. With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop remains favorable for EM and “risk.” US jobs report Friday will be very important for EM going forward. We get our first glimpse of the Chinese economy for July with the PMI readings this week.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would be likely to remain under pressure.

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How to make Donald Trump look presidential | The Economist

2016-07-22

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The Republican party’s challenge was to make Donald Trump look presidential. Whether they succeeded is up to the voters Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The Republican Party had a challenging task at the party convention – Make Donald Trump look presidential. They started by projecting an America dangerously distressed in …

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-07-22

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2016-07-22

The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB. S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty. Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency. The Nigerian Naira weakened above 300 per dollar for the first time. Brazil’s central bank signaled a longer wait until it cuts rates.

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A monarchist and a republican go head to head | The Economist

2016-07-22

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British republicans are stuck in the minority. See both sides to the argument: Graham Smith, who campaigns against the monarchy, and Thomas Mace-Archer-Mills, the chairman of the British Monarchist Society. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Check out Economist Films: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The …

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The music industry and the digital revolution

2016-07-19

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The music industry has come a long way since Radiohead allowed fans to pay what they wanted for an album. But there is still plenty of digital disruption going on. Tech companies such as Kobalt provide an alternative route for musicians to find fans and manage their money—without having to rely on a record deal. … Continue...

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Radiohead’s experimental business model changed the music industry

2016-07-19

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How Radiohead’s “In Rainbows” album release broke the mould in the music industry Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The Disrupters is an original series exploring how major industries—from music and cars to hospitality—are currently being disrupted by the latest wave of digital innovation. As well as enjoying privileged access into …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-07-18

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2016-07-18

EM ended last week on a soft note, due in large part to the attempted coup in Turkey. Weakness in the lira spilled over into wider EM weakness in thin Friday afternoon market conditions. The situation in Turkey has calmed, and so EM may gain some limited traction this week. However, that calm will likely be very fragile and so we retain a defensive posture with regards to EM.

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