Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

Tensions on the Korean peninsula are still rising. Hong Kong boosted its 2017 growth forecast. S&P affirmed Israel’s A+ rating but moved the outlook from stable to positive. The corruption investigation against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has intensified. South Africa's parliament voted down the no confidence motion against President Zuma. Argentina officials are taking steps to support the peso. Banco de Mexico has ended its tightening cycle.

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Real GDP: The Staggering Costs

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

How do we measure what has been lost over the last ten years? There is no single way to calculate it, let alone a correct solution. There are so many sides to an economy that choosing one risks overstating that facet at the expense of another. It’s somewhat of an impossible task already given the staggering dimensions.

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Industrial Production: Irreführende Statistiken

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Germany Industrial Production, SA 1997-2017
Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (DeStatis) reported today disappointing figures for Industrial Production. The seasonally-adjusted series fell in June 2017 month-over-month for the first time this year, last declining in December 2016. The index had been on a tear, rising nearly 5% in the first five months of this year.

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SNB Balance Sheet, Markets and Economy: As Good As It Gets?

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Markets and Economy 1972 - 2017
Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004.

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Vian Dakhil: Islamic State’s most-wanted woman | The Economist

2017-08-10

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Vian Dakhil, the only Yazidi member of Iraq’s parliament, is fighting to save her people from the jihadists of Islamic State. WARNING UPSETTING CONTENT Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full …

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Oil Prices: The Center Of The Inflation Debate

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Real GDP in the Eurodollar Era 1993-2017
The mainstream media is about to be presented with another (small) gift. In its quest to discredit populism, the condition of inflation has become paramount for largely the right reasons (accidents do happen). In the context of the macro economy of 2017, inflation isn’t really about consumer prices except as a broad gauge of hidden monetary conditions.

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The Real Rate of Inflation | Charles Hugh Smith

2017-08-09

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Listen to the full interview at the Solari Report – solari.com “I can track the real-world inflation of the Burrito Index with great accuracy: the cost of a regular burrito from our local taco truck has gone up from $2.50 in 2001 to $5 in 2010 to $6.50 in 2016. That’s a $160% increase since … Continue reading...

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Colombo, Sri Lanka: An Insiders Guide | The Economist

2017-08-09

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Colombo, an Insiders guide takes you to discover the hidden secrets of the city by asking the locals. Here are some top tips for experiencing Sri Lanka’s capital, Colombo. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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China Exports, China Imports: Textbook

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

China Exports 2013-2017
China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” global demand.

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Is Another Oil Head-Fake Brewing?

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

Crude Oil, Apr 2016 - Jul 2017
Over the past decade I've addressed what I call Head-Fakes in the cost of oil/fossil fuel: even though we know the cost of extracting and processing oil will rise over time as the easy-to-get oil is depleted, oil occasionally plummets to such low prices that we're fooled into thinking it will remain cheap for a long time to come.

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Will robots replace human workers? | The Economist

2017-08-07

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Demand for industrial robots is increasing, so we asked different people to guess how many jobs are held by robots, not humans. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

EM FX appears to be rolling over (see our recent piece “Is EM FX Finally Turning?”). Technical indicators are stretched as many EM currencies bump up against strong resistance levels.  Strong US jobs data is bringing Fed tightening back into focus.  We think ZAR could be shaping up to be the canary in a coalmine. It was -3% vs. USD last week and by far the worst in EM.

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U.S. Treasuries: Not Really Wrong On Bonds

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US Treasury market, and often differences can be striking. The most prominent example was, of course, October 15, 2014.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-08-05

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2017-08-05

The Reserve Bank of India started an easing cycle by cutting all policy rates 25 bp. Bank Indonesia has tilted more dovish after signaling earlier this year that the easing cycle was over. Czech National Bank became the first in Europe to hike. Political risk is rising in Israel. President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill. Nigeria is trying to unify its system of multiple exchange rates.

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Why We’re So Risk-Averse: “We Can’t Take That Chance”

2017-08-05

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2017-08-05

Debt Cost Of Living, 1959 - 2016
If our faith in the future and our resilience is near-zero, then we can't take any chances. You've probably noticed how risk-averse Hollywood has become: the big summer movies are all extensions of existing franchises--mixing up the superheroes in new combinations, or remaking hit films from the past--all safe bets.

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The folly of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s policies, as seen by Kal | The Economist

2017-08-04

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In Venezuela, a rigged election, months of violent protests and a power hungry leader created a dangerous cocktail. KAL’s cartoon commentary Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Inflation Is Not About Consumer Prices

2017-08-04

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2017-08-04

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1993 - 2017
I suspect President Trump has been told that markets don’t like radical changes. If there is one thing that any elected official is afraid of, it’s the internet flooded with reports of grave financial instability. We need only go back a year to find otherwise confident authorities suddenly reassessing their whole outlook.

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13 April 2017 Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalyp

2017-08-04

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While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has …

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Charles Hugh Smith On Where The Jobs Are

2017-08-02

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Click here for the full summary and slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/08/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-where-the-jobs-are/

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Extending The Cycle

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear.

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