Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-08-13

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2018-08-13

EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated. With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.

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NEWS: CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Economic Slowdown 2018

2018-08-12

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NEWS: CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Economic Slowdown 2018 ►►► THANKS FOR WATCHING ◄◄◄ AND DON’T FORGET TO LIKE COMMENTS AND SUBSCRIBE! Thank you! ==================================================== ► Gerald Celente: http://bit.ly/2w1taF5 ► Finance Today: http://bit.ly/2w0vBHP ► RonPaulLibertyReport: http://bit.ly/2w0h5zS

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Jim Rogers – Making China Great Again! (Video)

2018-08-12

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2018-08-12

We are delighted to announce a very special guest for our next episode of the Goldnomics Podcast, due for release later this week. We recently had the opportunity to speak with the legendary investor and adventure capitalist Jim Rogers. Jim is an American businessman, investor, traveler, financial commentator and author. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the...

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What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

2018-08-10

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2018-08-10

China Exports, Jan 2008 - Jul 2018
Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists were sure that it was just the...

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Africa: Islamic State’s next frontier | The Economist

2018-08-09

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Islamic State has been largely driven out of its territory in the Middle East. But the terrorist organisation’s ideology lives on and is taking root in Africa where jihadist violence has increased by 300% since 2010. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. …

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The Fantasy of “Balanced Returns” Funding Retirement

2018-08-09

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2018-08-09

Collapsed the Global Financial System, 1960 - 2018
The fantasy that a "balanced portfolio" yielding "balanced returns" will fund a stable retirement for decades to come is widely accepted as a sure thing: inflation will stay near-zero essentially forever, assets such as stocks and bonds will continue yielding hefty income and capital gains, and all the individual or fund needs to do is maintain a "balanced portfolio" of various asset classes that yield "balanced returns," i.e. some safe "value"...

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Global Asset Allocation Update – (VIDEO)

2018-08-08

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2018-08-08

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Romania’s last orphanages | The Economist

2018-08-07

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Over 100,000 children were abandoned in Romania’s orphanages during the communist dictatorship of Nicolae Ceausescu. Nearly 30 years on Romania, like most other countries, is closing down the last of them. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films …

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We’ll Pay All Those Future Obligations by Impoverishing Everyone (How to Destroy Our Currency In One Easy Lesson)

2018-08-07

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2018-08-07

US Total redi Market Debt GDP
The only way to pay all these future obligations is by creating new money. I've been focusing on inflation, which is more properly understood as the loss of purchasing power of a currency, which when taken to extremes destroys the currency and the wealth/income of everyone forced to use that currency.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-08-06

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2018-08-06

EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.

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Wildfires explained | The Economist

2018-08-03

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Wildfires are sweeping through the northern hemishphere as summer temperatures hit record highs. We are losing the battle against climate change. Find out more about The Economist’s cover story this week. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films …

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The 21st Century Misery Index: Labor’s Share of the Economy and Real-World Inflation

2018-08-03

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2018-08-03

Inflation 1996 - 2016
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, an era of stagflation, the Misery Index was the unemployment rate plus inflation, both of which were running hot. Now those numbers are at 50-year lows: both the unemployment rate and inflation are about as low as they can go, reaching levels not seen since the mid-1960s.

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The changing face of tourism | The Economist

2018-08-02

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Tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world—and it’s rapidly changing. Chinese travellers have overtaken Americans as the biggest spenders and nearly all regions are welcoming more tourists. Except one. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-08-02

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2018-08-02

Moderate Allocation 50-50 risk budget
The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

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Russia Sells 80 percent Of Its US Treasuries

2018-08-01

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2018-08-01

Russia Sells 80% Of Its US Treasuries. Description: In just over 2 months Russia has sold-off over 85% of its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, should the U.S. be concerned? – Russia has liquidated 85% of its US Treasury holdings in just two months. – Russia dumps over $90 billion of Treasuries in April and May as holdings collapse from near $100 billion to just $9 billion.

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Saudi Arabia: open for tourists | The Economist

2018-07-31

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Saudi Arabia is spending half-a-trillion dollars on coastal resorts and an entertainment complex to try and attract more tourists. It’s part of the crown prince’s plan to diversify the country’s economy away from oil. Will it work? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

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Here’s What We’ve Lost in the Past Decade

2018-07-31

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2018-07-31

The ever-widening wage gap 1973-2015
The confidence and hubris of those directing the rest of us to race off the cliff while they watch from a safe distance is off the charts. The past decade of "recovery" and "growth" has actually been a decade of catastrophic losses for our society and nation. Here's a short list of what we've lost: 1. Functioning markets. Free markets discover price and assess risk.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-07-30

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2018-07-30

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar.  Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.

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Here’s How Systems (and Nations) Fail

2018-07-29

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2018-07-29

Rising Insulin prices 2001-2015
These embedded processes strip away autonomy, equating compliance with effectiveness even as the processes become increasingly counter-productive and wasteful. Would any sane person choose America's broken healthcare system over a cheaper, more effective alternative?

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When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis

2018-07-28

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2018-07-28

Systems Collapse
The doom-and-gloomers among us who have been predicting the unraveling of an inherently unstable financial system appear to have been disproved by the reflation of yet another credit-asset bubble. But inherently unstable / imbalanced systems can stumble onward for years or even decades, making fools of all who warn of an eventual reset.

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