Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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The Dea(r)th of Economic Momentum

2018-01-17

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2018-01-17

China Exports, Jan 2008 - Jan 2018
For the fourth quarter as a whole, Chinese exports rose by just less than 10% year-over-year. That’s the highest quarterly rate in more than three years, up from 6.3% and 6.0% in Q2 2017 and Q3, respectively. That acceleration is, predictably, being celebrated as a meaningful leap in global economic fortunes. Instead, it highlights China’s grand predicament, one that country just cannot seem to escape.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: A Weak Dollar Stirs A Toxic Stew

2018-01-16

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2018-01-16

We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time – slowly – and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits.

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Open borders: the long-term perks and pitfalls | The Economist

2018-01-15

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Open borders could see global GDP rocket, but free movement around the world could have its downsides. We imagine a borderless world Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2DfRSXX Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://econ.st/2DkJBC6 Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-01-15

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2018-01-15

EM FX continues to rally as the dollar remains on its back foot. With no obvious drivers this week that might help the dollar, we believe EM FX can extend the recent gains. Still, we continue to advise caution when investing in EM, as differentiation should again become evident as idiosyncratic risks remain in play.

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The Fascinating Psychology of Blowoff Tops

2018-01-15

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2018-01-15

Dow Jones 2009 - 2017
The psychology of blowoff tops in asset bubbles is fascinating: let's start with the first requirement of a move qualifying as a blowoff top, which is the vast majority of participants deny the move is a blowoff top.

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Inflation Correlations and China’s Brief, Disappointing Porcine Nightmare

2018-01-14

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2018-01-14

China Price Stability, Jun 2014 - Dec 2017
Two years ago, China was gripped by what was described as an epic pig problem. For most Chinese people, pork is a main staple so rapidly rising pig prices could have presented a serious challenge to an economy already at that time besieged by massive negative forces. It was another headache officials in that country really didn’t need.

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Charles Hugh Smith WARNS: Crash Is Coming Control Fraud Is the Core of our Political Syste

2018-01-14

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My advice is this: Settle! That’s right. Don’t worry about passion or intense connection. Don’t nix a guy based on his annoying habit of yelling Bravo! in theaters. Overlook his halitosis. Spread the word about PropellerAds and earn money! YouTube Tips and Triks to make real dollers: The Best Portable Bluetooth Speaker (.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-01-13

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2018-01-13

China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) disputed press reports that it was slowing or halting purchases of US Treasury bonds. Korean officials warned that it will take stern steps to prevent one-sided currency moves. Bulgaria is talking “intensively” with the ECB and other EU representatives about entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism by mid-year.

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MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doome

2018-01-13

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MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doomed. Thank you for listening. Follow us on . Thank you for listening. Follow us on . MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doomed. ALERT! …

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The Conspicuous Rush To Import

2018-01-12

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2018-01-12

US Trade Balance, Jan 2014 - 2018
According to the Census Bureau, US companies have been importing foreign goods at a relentless pace. In estimates released last week, seasonally-adjusted US imports jumped to $204 billion in November 2017. That’s a record high finally surpassing the $200 billion mark for the first time, as well as the peaks for both 2014 and 2007.

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Trump in two minutes | The Economist

2018-01-11

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President Donald Trump has spent one year in office. But what exactly has he achieved? Here’s a two-minute snapshot of his presidency so far. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2D5Gxte Since coming to power Mr Trump has tweeted over two thousand times. Often insulting people and bragging with a liberal use …

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Yes, But at What Cost?

2018-01-11

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2018-01-11

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt, 1970 - 2017
This is how our entire status quo maintains the illusion of normalcy: by avoiding a full accounting of the costs. The economy's going great--but at what cost? "Normalcy" has been restored, but at what cost? Profits are soaring, but at what cost? Our pain is being reduced--but at what cost? The status quo delights in celebrating gains, but the costs required to generate those gains are ignored for one simple reason: the costs exceed the gains by a...

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The Reluctant Labor Force Is Reluctant For A Reason (and it’s not booming growth)

2018-01-10

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2018-01-10

Labor Market Growth Rates, 1968 - 2017
In 2017, the BLS estimates that just 861k Americans were added to the official labor force, the denominator, of course, for the unemployment rate. That’s out of an increase of 1.4 million in the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, the overall prospective pool of workers. Both of those rises were about half the rate experienced in 2016.

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How to bring down a dictator | The Economist

2018-01-08

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North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un celebrates his birthday today. How can he–and leaders like him–be brought down by non-violent action? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2CTZrn6 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://econ.st/2CTRKx8 Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-01-08

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2018-01-08

EM FX was mostly firmer last week, but ended on a mixed note Friday. Best performers on the week for COP, MXN, and BRL while the worst were ARS, PHP, and CNY. We continue to warn investors against blindly buying into this broad-based EM rally, as we believe divergences will once again assert themselves in the coming weeks.

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The Great Risk of So Many Dinosaurs

2018-01-07

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2018-01-07

UST Central Curve, Jan 2007 - Dec 2017
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) was established a long time ago in the maelstrom of World War II budgetary as well as wartime conflagration. That made sense. To fight all over the world, the government required creative help in figuring out how to sell an amount of bonds it hadn’t needed (in proportional terms) since the Civil War. A twenty-person committee made up of money dealer bank professionals and leaders was one of the few...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-01-06

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2018-01-06

Tensions on the Korean peninsula appear to be easing. Relations between Pakistan and the US have worsened. The Philippine central bank is tilting more hawkish. The ANC may consider removing Zuma from the presidency at the January 10 meeting of its National Executive Committee. Turkish banker Atilla was convicted of helping Iran evade US financial sanctions.

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Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can’t “Normalize” Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus

2018-01-06

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2018-01-06

Monthly Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, ECB asset purchases, 2008 - 2017
Central banks are now trapped. In a nutshell, central banks are promising to "normalize" their monetary policy extremes in 2018. Nice, but there's a problem: you can't "normalize" markets that are now entirely dependent on extremes of monetary stimulus. Attempts to "normalize" will break the markets and the financial system. Let's start with the core dynamic of the global economy and nosebleed-valuation markets: credit.

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Central Banks Have Manipulated The Markets Which Will Ultimately Crash Charles Hugh Smith

2018-01-05

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Thanks for ing. Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds Books: Get a Job, Build a Real Career. Why. Thanks for ing. Central Banks Have Manipulated The Markets Which Will Ultimately Crash Charles Hugh Smith ———————————- $ Help Finance News reach 1000 subscribers: Thanks for ing. Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-01-05

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2018-01-05

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

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