Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

03-05-13-Macro Analytics – The Global End Game – with Charles Hugh Smith

2017-11-11

by

Charles Hugh Smith’s recent article The Global End Game in Fourteen Points is the basis for this discussion on the traditional Business Cycle, the Credit Cycle

Read More »

Synchronized Global Not Quite Growth

2017-11-10

by

2017-11-10

US Exports, Jan 1989 - 2017
Going back to 2014, it was common for whenever whatever economic data point disappointed that whomever optimistic economist or policymaker would overrule it by pointing to “global growth.” It was the equivalent of shutting down an uncomfortable debate with ad hominem attacks. You can’t falsify “global growth” because you can’t really define what it is.

Read More »

The struggles for independence and the impact of redrawing borders | The Economist

2017-11-09

by

From Catalonia to Kurdistan and Quebec, many people are demanding independence. What does it take to transform a cultural identity into a nation-state? And what is the impact? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2zpWFnB The number of countries in the United Nations has grown over the decades – from 51 states …

Read More »

How Will Bitcoin React in a Financial Crisis Like 2008?

2017-11-09

by

2017-11-09

Bitcoin Distribution
Whenever I raise the topic of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, I feel like an agnostic in the 30 Years War between Catholics and Protestants. There is precious little neutral ground in the crypto-is-a-bubble battle; one side is absolutely confident that bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are in a tulip-bulb type bubble, while the other camp is equally confident that we ain't seen nuthin' yet in terms of bitcoin's future valuation.

Read More »

Four Point One

2017-11-09

by

2017-11-09

US Establishment Survey Payrolls, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
The payroll report for October 2017 was still affected by the summer storms in Texas and Florida. That was expected. The Establishment Survey estimates for August and September were revised higher, the latter from a -33k to +18k. Most economists were expecting a huge gain in October to snapback from that hurricane number, but the latest headline was just +261k.

Read More »

Let’s Clear Up One Confusion About Bitcoin

2017-11-09

by

2017-11-09

Bitcoin One-year Chart, Jan - Oct 2017
If bitcoin can be converted into fiat currencies at a lower transaction cost than the fiat-to-fiat conversions made by banks and credit card companies, it's a superior means of exchange. One of the most common comments I hear from bitcoin skeptics goes something like this: Bitcoin isn't real money until I can buy a cup of coffee with it. In other words, bitcoin fails the first of the two core tests of "money": that it is a means of exchange and a...

Read More »

Space tourism will lift-off in 2018 | The Economist

2017-11-08

by

Space tourism will take-off in 2018. As the race between spaceflight companies Virgin Galactic and SpaceX heats up, those who can afford it will be able to travel to low Earth orbit and possibly even around the moon. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2he5ZAb In late 2018, tourists will be heading …

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

2017-11-08

by

2017-11-08

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and 3% prints of Q2 and Q3 2017.

Read More »

The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

by

2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

Read More »

Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

2017-11-07

by

2017-11-07

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1996 - 2017
European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.

Read More »

The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

2017-11-07

by

2017-11-07

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet, 1998 - 2016
This interaction will spark a runaway feedback loop that will smack asset valuations back to pre-bubble, pre-pyramid scheme levels. According to the conventional economic forecast, interest rates will stay near-zero essentially forever due to slow growth. And since growth is slow, inflation will also remain neutral.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-11-06

by

2017-11-06

EM FX ended the week under pressure. News of the Venezuela debt restructuring was digested well, but sentiment went south as the day wore on. Weakness was concentrated in the weakest links TRY, BRL, RUB, and ZAR, while MXN and COP were dragged along for the ride. We see EM selling pressures persisting into 2018.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-11-05

by

2017-11-05

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise.

Read More »

What’s Driving Social Discord: Russian Social Media Meddling or Soaring Wealth/Power Inequality?

2017-11-05

by

2017-11-05

Boris Natasha
The nation's elites are desperate to misdirect us from the financial and power dividethat has enriched and empowered them at the expense of the unprotected many. There are two competing explanatory narratives battling for mind-share in the U.S.: 1. The nation's social discord is the direct result of Russian social media meddling-- what I call the Boris and Natasha Narrative of evil Russian masterminds controlling a vast conspiracy of social media...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-11-04

by

2017-11-04

Russia’s Finance Ministry announced plans to increase its dollar. purchases in November. Bahrain has reportedly asked its Gulf allies for financial assistance. S&P upgraded Argentina a notch to B+ with stable outlook. Brazil raised BRL6.15 bln ($1.9 bln) by auctioning off the rights to explore 6 of the 8 deep-water oil blocks. Venezuela bowed to the inevitable, announcing that it would have to restructure its debt.

Read More »

What the Kennedy Assassination Records Reveal: Uncontrollable Incompetence

2017-11-04

by

2017-11-04

Propaganda Ministry 2017
One way to interpret the intelligence community's reluctance to let all the Kennedy assassination archives become public is that the archives contain evidence of a "smoking gun": that is, evidence that the intelligence agencies of the United States of America were complicit in the assassination of the President.

Read More »

Bonds And Soft Chinese Data

2017-11-04

by

2017-11-04

China Treasury Bonds
Back in June, China’s federal bond yield curve inverted. Ahead of mid-year bank checks, short-term govvies sold off as longer bonds continued to be bought. It was for some a rotation, for others a reflection of money rates threatening to spiral out of control. On June 19, for example, the 6-month federal security yielded 3.87% compared to a yield of 3.525% for the 10-year.

Read More »

The (Economic) Difference Between Stocks and Bonds

2017-11-04

by

2017-11-04

US Disposable Personal Income, Jan 1985 - 2017
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.6% in September 2017 above August. That was the largest monthly increase (SAAR) in almost three years. Given that Real PCE declined month-over-month in August, it is reasonable to assume hurricane effects for both. Across the two months, Real PCE rose by a far more modest 0.5% total, or an annual rate of just 3.4%, only slightly greater the prevailing average.

Read More »

Strong Growth? Q3 GDP Only Shows How Weak 2017 Has Been

2017-11-03

by

2017-11-03

US Gross Domestic Product, April 2011 - March 2017
Baseball Hall of Famer Frank Robinson also had a long career as a manager after his playing days were done. He once said in that latter capacity that you have to have a short memory as a closer. Simple wisdom where it’s true, all that matters for that style of pitching is the very next out. You can forget about what just happened so as to give your full energy and concentration to the batter at the plate.

Read More »

The Balfour Declaration’s impact, 100 years on | The Economist

2017-11-03

by

The Balfour Declaration was penned 100 years ago, but its legacy still resonates in the Middle East today. How did a letter, only 67-words long, ignite 100 years of conflict? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 100 years ago this week Arthur Balfour, the British foreign secretary, penned a letter that …

Read More »