Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast…

2018-04-21

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2018-04-21

CBOE Options Equity Pubcall Ratio, May 2013 - Apr 2018
Obviously, assorted crash analogs have by now gone out of the window – we already noted that the market was late if it was to continue to mimic them, as the decline would have had to accelerate in the last week of March to remain in compliance with the “official time table”. Of course crashes are always very low probability events – but there are occasions when they have a higher probability than otherwise, and we will certainly point those out...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2018-04-20

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2018-04-20

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

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How to solve the refugee crisis | The Economist

2018-04-19

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The refugee crisis is one of the most pressing challenges for the world today: around 1 person in 100 is a refugee. David Miliband, a former British foreign secretary, offers his thoughts on how to solve it. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2F3OBrG #openfuture Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the …

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China’s Exports Are Interesting, But It’s Their Imports Where Reflation Lives or Dies

2018-04-19

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2018-04-19

China Exports, Jan 2008 - 2018
Last month Chinese trade statistics left us with several key questions. Export growth was a clear outlier, with outbound trade rising nearly 45% year-over-year in February 2018. There were the usual Golden Week distortions to consider, made more disruptive by the timing of it this year as different from last year. And then we have to consider possible effects of tariffs and restrictions at the start of what is called a trade war (but isn’t really,...

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Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty

2018-04-18

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2018-04-18

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding – for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating somewhat (see the Bi-Weekly Economic Review) the change isn’t sufficient to warrant an asset allocation change.

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Liberalism: where did it come from and are its days numbered? | The Economist

2018-04-17

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Liberalism has been the dominant political philosophy in the West for more than 200 years. Populists say liberals are too elite and are out of touch with ordinary people. Here’s what you need to know about liberalism and its place in modern society. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2HbzON6 #openfuture Daily …

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Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading

2018-04-17

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2018-04-17

Trade Wars
What ignites trade wars? The oft-cited sources include unfair trade practices and big trade deficits. But since these have been in place for decades, they don't explain why trade wars are igniting now. To truly understand why trade wars are igniting and spreading, we need to start with financial repression, a catch-all for all the monetary stimulus programs launched after the Global Financial Meltdown/Crisis of 2008/09.

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RMR: Special Guest – Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds (04/16/2018)

2018-04-16

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“V” interviews returning guest Charles Hugh Smith editor and owner of the Of Two Minds Blog. “V” and Charles discuss the current challenge to control the narrative in the middle-east, the balance of trade between countries and epic failures of the economic system. We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-04-16

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2018-04-16

EM FX was mixed Friday, capping a mixed week as a whole. COP, CLP, and MXN were the best performers last week, while RUB, BRL, and TRY were the worst. While concerns about trade wars and Syrian missile strikes have ebbed, risks to EM remain elevated. US retail sales Monday and Fed Beige Book Wednesday are the economic highlights this week.

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What is The Economist’s Open Future project?

2018-04-16

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For 175 years The Economist has been doing more than reporting news. It’s been championing values, promoting open societies, challenging special interests, making the case for decisions based on cold hard facts. #openfuture We set the agenda for free trade and globalization. We made the case for same-sex marriage and private space exploration. But in …

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The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing

2018-04-15

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2018-04-15

The Fruit of Financialization, 1980 - 2014
Though the Powers That Be will attempt to placate or suppress the Revolt of the Powerless, the genies of political disunity and social disorder cannot be put back in the bottle. The saying "the worm has turned" refers to the moment when the downtrodden have finally had enough, and turn on their powerful oppressors.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-04-14

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2018-04-14

Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened to defend the HKD peg. Moody’s upgraded Indonesia by a notch to Baa2 with a stable outlook. MAS tightened policy by adjusting the slope of its S$NEER trading band up “slightly.” Hungary Prime Minister Orban won a fourth term for his Fidesz party. Poland central bank Governor said it’s possible that the next move will be a rate cut. Russia outlined a range of potential retaliatory measures in response to US...

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US Imports Don’t Quite Match Chinese Exports

2018-04-12

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2018-04-12

US Trade Balance, Jan 2014 - 2018
In early 2015, a contract dispute between dockworkers’ unions and 29 ports on the West Coast of the US escalated into what was a slowdown strike. Cargoes piled up especially at some of the largest facilities like those in Oakland, LA, and Long Beach, threatening substantial economic costs far and away from just those directly involved. Each side predictably blamed the other for it.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

Economic Growth and Investment
The market volatility this year has been blamed on a lot of factors. The initial selloff was blamed on a hotter than expected wage number in the January employment report that supposedly sparked concerns about inflation – although a similar number this month wasn’t mentioned as a cause of last Friday’s selling. The unwinding of the short volatility trade exacerbated the situation and voila, 12% came off the market in a matter of days.

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Could blockchain save the Amazon rainforest? | The Economist

2018-04-10

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Blockchain technology can do more than underpin crypto-currencies—it could help save the Amazon rainforest by stopping so called “biopirates” from plundering its biological riches. If it works, more money could be made by preserving the rainforest than cutting it down Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2v5mUik Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films …

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Why Systems Fail

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

Federal Government, 2005 - 2018
Since failing systems are incapable of structural reform, collapse is the only way forward. Systems fail for a wide range of reasons, but I'd like to focus on two that are easy to understand but hard to pin down. Systems are accretions of structures and modifications laid down over time.Each layer adds complexity which is viewed at the time as a solution. This benefits insiders, as their job security arises from the need to manage the added...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for the first half of FY2018/19 to 4.7-5.1%. Former South Korean President Park was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Malaysia Prime Minister Razak has called for early elections. Bahrain discovered its biggest oil field since it started producing crude in 1932. Local press reports Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Simsek tendered his resignation.

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Were Trade Wars Inevitable?

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

US National Income, 1960 - 2018
Were trade wars inevitable? The answer is yes, due to the imbalances and distortions generated by financialization and central bank stimulus. Gordon Long and I peel the trade-war onion in a new video program, Were Trade Wars Inevitable?

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Jeff Snider: U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Deep Dive

2018-04-08

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss what the current yield curve is telling us? They touch on the changes from an era of fed funds rate targeting and reflect on the 2006-2009 period for interest rates and the reflation trends in the post “Great Financial Crisis”. Jeff …

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Playing for All the Marbles

2018-04-07

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2018-04-07

Asset Prices vs GDP, 1992 - 2016
Global Plunge Protection Teams must be ordering take-out food; every night is a long one now. The current stocks/bonds game is for all the marbles, by which I mean the status quo now depends on valuations and interest rates remaining near their current levels for the system to function.

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