Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-28

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2018-05-28

President Trump canceled the planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Malaysia’s new Finance Minister Lim was sworn in along with 13 other cabinet ministers. Philippine central bank cut reserve ratios for commercial banks by one percentage point to 18% effective June 1. The United Arab Emirates opened up its economy to more foreign investment.

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The Currency of PMI’s

2018-05-27

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2018-05-27

US Markit PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - May 2018
Markit Economics released the flash results from several of its key surveys. Included is manufacturing in Japan (lower), as well as composites (manufacturing plus services) for the United States and Europe. Within the EU, Markit offers details for France and Germany.

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Globally Synchronized Asynchronous Growth

2018-05-26

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2018-05-26

US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - May 2018
Industrial Production in the United States rose 3.5% year-over-year in April 2018, down slightly from a revised 3.7% rise in March. Since accelerating to 3.4% growth back in November 2017, US industry has failed to experience much beyond that clear hurricane-related boost. IP for prior months, particularly February and March 2018, were revised significantly lower.

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American trade representatives meet China’s, cartooned | The Economist

2018-05-25

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Trade representatives from America met with their Chinese counterparts this week in a bid to avoid a trade war. The negotiations did not go well, our cartoonist offers his take Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2IKOHv1 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: …

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Sustainability Boils Down to Scale

2018-05-25

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2018-05-25

Black Market Exchange Rate of Venezuelan Bolivar to US Dollar, 2010 - 2018
Only small scale systems can sustainably impose "skin in the game"-- consequences, accountability and oversight. Several conversations I had at the recent Peak Prosperity conference in Sonoma, CA sparked an insight into why societies and economies thrive or fail: It All Boils Down to Scale. In a conversation with a Peak Prosperity member who goes by MemeMonkey, MemeMonkey pointed out that social / economic organizations that function well at small...

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Anchoring Globally Synchronized Growth, Or We Gave Up Long Ago?

2018-05-24

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2018-05-24

China Fixed Asset Investment, Apr 2012 - 2018
January was the last month in which China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) specifically mentioned Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) of state holding enterprises (or SOE’s). For the month of December 2017, the NBS reported accumulated growth (meaning for all of 2017) in this channel of 10.1%. Through FAI of SOE’s, Chinese authorities in early 2016 had panicked themselves into unleashing considerable “stimulus.”

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The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear

2018-05-23

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2018-05-23

All Sector Debt Securities and Loans, 1960 - 2018
The acceleration of non-linear consequences will surprise the brainwashed, loving-their-servitude mainstream media. Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we'd expect sales to drop by about 2%, businesses closing their doors to increase by about 2%, profits to notch down by about 2%, lending contracts by...

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RMR: Special Guest – Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds (05/22/2018)

2018-05-22

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Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds Blog joins “V” to discuss recent articles on his website, how blockchain and cryptocurrency could free the world of the current financial controllers and balance the powers of society. We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news …

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El Salvador’s violent gang members are finding God in prison | The Economist

2018-05-22

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18th Street and MS-13 gangs terrorise El Salvador, making it one of the most deadly places on earth. Leaving the gang is not easy—former gangsters face rejection from society and the threat of violence from other gang members and the police. Can religion provide a safe way out? Click here to subscribe to The Economist …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-05-22

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2018-05-22

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

2018-05-22

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2018-05-22

Economic Growth & Investment
There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year – and in future years – due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand is not a recipe for higher prices. In addition, there is some fear that the ongoing trade disputes may impact foreign demand...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-21

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2018-05-21

Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem.

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Charles Hugh Smith On The Intensifying Pension Crisis

2018-05-21

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Click here for full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2018/05/20/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-intensifying-pension-crisis

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And Now For Something Completely Different

2018-05-20

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2018-05-20

Japan Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 2008 - 2018
Back in February, Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that Real GDP in Japan had grown in Q4 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. It was the longest streak of non-negative GDP since the 1980’s. Predictably, this was hailed as some significant achievement, a true masterstroke of courage and perseverance. It was taken as a sign that Abenomics and QQE was finally working (never mind the four years).

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Tax Cuts And (Less) Spending

2018-05-19

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2018-05-19

US Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - May 2018
After being rumored and talked about for over a year, at the end of last year the tax cuts were finally delivered. The idea had captured much market attention during that often anxious period of political flirtation. Prices would rise or fall by turn based on whether or not it seemed a realistic possibility.

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U.S. Healthcare Isn’t Broken–It’s Fixed

2018-05-18

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2018-05-18

US Health Spending, 2010
If you want to understand why the U.S. healthcare system is bankrupt, financially, morally and politically, then start with this representative anecdote from a U.S. physician. I received this report from correspondent J.F. on the topic of direct advertising of pharmaceutical products to the public (patients).

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When thoughts control machines | The Economist

2018-05-17

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Efforts to connect human brains to computers have taken big leaps forward in recent years. Melding our minds with machines could provide the biggest single upgrade to human intelligence since our species evolved. But are we ready? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2Fzn4ON Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-05-17

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2018-05-17

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it was a mistake. Stocks went from overbought to more overbought and I missed the rally to all time highs in January.

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All The World’s A (Imagined) Labor Shortage

2018-05-16

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2018-05-16

China Imports, Jan 2008 - Apr 2018
Last year’s infatuation with globally synchronized growth was at least understandable. From a certain, narrow point of view, Europe’s economy had accelerated. So, too, it seemed later in the year for the US economy. The Bank of Japan was actually talking about ending QQE with inflation in sight, and the PBOC was purportedly tightening as China’s economy appeared to many ready for its rebound.

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Has migration gone too far? | The Economist

2018-05-15

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Migrants from the EU into Britian are more likely to be paying taxes than claiming benefits. So why do some people think migration is harmful, and how should this divisive issue be dealt with? The Economist’s Emma Hogan offers her thoughts. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2GgNrtt Daily Watch: mind-stretching short …

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