Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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What Lies Beyond Capitalism and Socialism?

2018-05-04

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2018-05-04

Global Debt, 1997 - 2017
The status quo, in all its various forms, is dominated by incentives that strengthen the centralization of wealth and power. As longtime readers know, my work aims to 1) explain why the status quo -- the socio-economic-political system we inhabit -- is unsustainable, divisive, and doomed to collapse under its own weight and 2) sketch out an alternative Mode of Production/way of living that is sustainable, consumes far less resources while providing...

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 05-03-18 – How They’re Implementing Social Control – Part II w/Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-04

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VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add the following message to each video, which many have already seen to help all of those that haven’t learned of the new update. Thank you again for your support! To all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long subscribers: …

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 05-03-18 – Advancing Social Control – Part I w/Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-04

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VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add the following message to each video, which many have already seen to help all of those that haven’t learned of the new update. Thank you again for your support! To all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long subscribers: …

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Is Emmanuel Macron the EU’s most powerful politician? | The Economist

2018-05-03

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Emmanuel Macron has revolutionised French politics. Now the French president is trying to galvanise the EU and he is having significant impact on the global stage. Has he usurped Angela Merkel as the EU’s most powerful political force? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the …

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Where next for oil prices?

2018-05-03

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2018-05-03

On 19 April, the price of a barrel of oil reached USD69.56 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and reached USD75.27 for Brent, today, the highest price since 2014. Since 9 April, oil prices have been significantly above their longterm fundamental equilibrium value. Three factors explain what has happened.

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Exploring and protecting the Antarctic | The Economist

2018-05-02

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The Antarctic is one of the least explored places on the planet. For the first time ever a marine biologist has ventured to unexplored parts of the seabed in a submarine. Her discoveries have shocked the scientific community and could pave the way for the biggest no-fishing zone in the world Click here to subscribe …

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House View, April 2018

2018-05-02

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2018-05-02

House View Equities, April 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes. While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals still favour risk assets, challenges have been steadily increasing and a lot of good news is already priced into valuations. We sold part of our equity overweight during the early March rally.

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Transitory’s Japanese Cousin

2018-05-01

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2018-05-01

Inflation in Japan, Jan 2011 - Apr 2018
Thomas Hoenig was President of the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch for two decades. He left that post in 2011 to become Vice Chairman of the FDIC. Before that, Mr. Hoenig as a voting member of the FOMC in 2010 cast the lone dissenting vote in each of the eight policy meetings that year (meaning he was against QE2, too). This makes him, apparently, the hawk of all hawks.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-04-30

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2018-04-30

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now.

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La dette bat des records et menace l’économie mondiale

2018-04-29

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2018-04-29

Countries
L’endettement mondial, qui a atteint 164.000 milliards de dollars en 2016 et représente 225% du PIB mondial, représente un risque pour l’économie, a prévenu mercredi le FMI. L’endettement mondial atteint des records, sous l’impulsion de la Chine, au point de dépasser largement les niveaux de 2009, juste après la faillite de la banque Lehman Brothers, et de représenter un risque pour l’économie, a prévenu mercredi le FMI.

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The Science of Japanification

2018-04-28

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2018-04-28

Rational Expectations Science of Monetary Policy
The term itself gives it away. They called it quantitative easing for a specific reason. Both words mean to convey substantial concepts. The first part, quantitative, was used because it sounds deliberate, even scientific. It implies a program where great care and study was employed to come up with the exact right amount. It’s downright formulaic, where you intend that by doing X you can predictably create Y.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Interest Rates Make Their Move

2018-04-27

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2018-04-27

Economic Growth and Investment
How quickly things change in these markets. In the report two weeks ago, the markets reflected a pretty obvious slowing in the global economy. In the course of two weeks, what seemed obvious has been quickly reversed. The 10-year yield moved up a quick 20 basis points in just a week, a rise in nominal growth expectations that was mostly about inflation fears.

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Why The Last One Still Matters (IP Revisions)

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

US Industrial Production, Jan 2006 - 2018
Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial Production was formed. The index and its components have changed considerably over its near century of operative history.

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Our Strange Attraction to Self-Destructive Behaviors, Choices and Incentives

2018-04-25

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2018-04-25

US Overdose Deaths, 2000 - 2016
Self-destruction isn't a bug, it's a feature of our socio-economic system. The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies.

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Donald Trump’s attack on American justice | The Economist

2018-04-24

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President Trump is trying to influence what has traditionally been a non-partisan institution: the Department of Justice. In his first year in office he has appointed a record 18 federal judges and one supreme court justice. What does this mean for the future of the rule of law in the United States? Click here to …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-04-24

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2018-04-24

EM FX came under renewed pressure last week as US yields rose to new highs for the cycle. RUB and TRY were the top performers last week, while MXN and COP were the worst. There are no Fed speakers this week due to the embargo ahead of the May 2 FOMC meeting. While we see little chance of a hike then, markets are likely to remain nervous.

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Charles Hugh Smith On The Developing Trade Wars

2018-04-23

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Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2018/04/23/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-developing-trade-wars/

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-04-23

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2018-04-23

The Reserve Bank of India is tilting more hawkish. Tensions on the Korean peninsula are easing. The Trump administration reversed course on Russia sanctions. Turkey is heading for early elections. Raul Castro stepped down as president of Cuba. Mexico polls show continued gains for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

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The Retail Sales Shortage

2018-04-22

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2018-04-22

US Retail Sales, Jan 2014 - Apr 2018
Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly how far (or fast) won’t be known until subsequent months.

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What Do We Know About Syria? Next to Nothing

2018-04-21

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2018-04-21

Total Primary Energy Consumption
Anyone accepting "facts" or narratives from any interested party is being played. About the only "fact" the public knows with any verifiable certainty about Syria is that much of that nation is in ruins. Virtually everything else presented as "fact" is propaganda intended to serve one of the competing narratives or discredit one or more competing narratives.

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