Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Here We Go Again: Our Double-Bubble Economy

2018-06-17

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2018-06-17

S&P/Case-Shiller 2000-2018
The bubbles in assets are supported by the invisible bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity. Well, folks, here we go again: we have a double-bubble economy in housing and stocks, and a third difficult-to-chart bubble in greed, euphoria and credulity.

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Recent Concerning Consumer Credit Trends Carry On Into April

2018-06-16

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2018-06-16

Consumer-Credit Revolving Monthly Change 2012-2018
US consumers continue to recover from their debt splurge at the end of last year. Combined with still weaker income growth, the Federal Reserve estimates that aggregate revolving credit balances grew only marginally for the fourth straight month in April 2018. To put it in perspective, the total for revolving credit (seasonally adjusted) is up a mere $2.2 billion for all four months of this year combined, compared to +$5.2 billion in December 2017...

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Kim Jong won | The Economist

2018-06-15

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Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump could have pulled off the unthinkable—a denuclearised North Korea. But as our cartoonist Kal imagines, things could spin badly out of control for the American President Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2t0Pmye Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist …

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Chinese Inflation And Money Contributions To EM’s

2018-06-15

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2018-06-15

China CPI PBOC Bank Reserves, May 2007 - 2018
The People’s Bank of China won’t update its balance sheet numbers for May until later this month. Last month, as expected, the Chinese central bank allowed bank reserves to contract for the first time in nearly two years. It is, I believe, all part of the reprioritization of monetary policy goals toward CNY. How well it works in practice remains to be seen. Authorities are not simply contracting one important form of base money in China (bank...

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Who will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup? | The Economist

2018-06-14

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The 2018 FIFA World Cup has begun, but who is likely to win? The Economist has scoured historical data and analysed dozens of factors to try to determine which country’s team will lift the iconic trophy.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

2018-06-14

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2018-06-14

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 15/06/2018.

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A Slight Hint Of A 2011 Feel

2018-06-13

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2018-06-13

Deutsche Bank
Whenever a big bank is rumored to be in unexpected merger talks, that’s always a good sign, right? The name Deutsche Bank keeps popping up as it has for several years now, this is merely representative of what’s wrong inside of a global system that can’t ever get fixed. In this one case, we have a couple of perpetuated conventional myths colliding into what is still potentially grave misfortune.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-12

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2018-06-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies.  We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact.  Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. 

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-06-11

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2018-06-11

The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time since 2014. Malaysia’s central bank governor resigned. Czech central bank tilted more hawkish. Russia central bank tilted more dovish. Argentina got a $50 bln standby program from the IMF.

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The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025

2018-06-09

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2018-06-09

Systems Collapse
We're going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won't be "growth" and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of "money" to energy:"money" is nothing more than a claim on future energy. If there's no energy available to fuel the global economy, "money" will have little value.

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US Trade Settles Down Again

2018-06-08

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2018-06-08

U.S. Trade Trade Balance, Import, Export, Jan 2014 - May 2018
US trade is further leveling off after several months of artificial intrusions. On the import side, in particular, first was a very large and obvious boost following last year’s big hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Starting in September 2017, for four months the value of imported goods jumped by an enormous 8.3% (revised, seasonally-adjusted). Most of the bump related to consumer and capital goods.

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Can technology save the rarest creatures on the planet? | The Economist

2018-06-07

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A “Facebook for fish” is being used to try and save the critically-endangered Giant Sea Bass. This is just one of the pioneering experiments being carried out by marine biologist, Douglas McCauley, in his mission to protect ocean life. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xOgV2D For more from Economist Films visit: …

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Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?

2018-06-07

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2018-06-07

S&P 500 Large Cap Index 2018
We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet." "Reality" is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves.

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Can a cure for diabetes be found through surgery? | The Economist

2018-06-06

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Diabetes is the fastest growing health crisis of our time. Could a common surgical procedure bolster hopes of finding a cure? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2M2143H Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2M1rxOZ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

2018-06-06

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2018-06-06

US Treasuries
In the last update I wondered if growth expectations – and growth – were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a new higher level of growth. Or maybe not.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-05

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2018-06-05

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

2018-06-04

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2018-06-04

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 01/06/2018.

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Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43 percent from 2001

2018-06-02

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2018-06-02

US Healthcare 1960 - 2010
Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living. Long-time readers may recall the Burrito Index, my real-world measure of inflation. The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016). The Burrito Index tracks the cost of a regular burrito since 2001. Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you’re a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the cost of a regular...

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Sexism and the English language | The Economist

2018-06-01

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Sexism is rife in language. A woman may be described as “bossy”, while a man is more likely to be “assertive”. The Economist’s language expert Lane Greene explores the gender stereotypes used in everyday speech. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For …

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