Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

2018-08-02

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

Read More »

Russia Sells 80 percent Of Its US Treasuries

2018-08-01

by Mark O'Byrne

2018-08-01

Russia Sells 80% Of Its US Treasuries. Description: In just over 2 months Russia has sold-off over 85% of its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, should the U.S. be concerned? – Russia has liquidated 85% of its US Treasury holdings in just two months. – Russia dumps over $90 billion of Treasuries in April and May as holdings collapse from near $100 billion to just $9 billion.

Read More »

Saudi Arabia: open for tourists | The Economist

2018-07-31

Saudi Arabia is spending half-a-trillion dollars on coastal resorts and an entertainment complex to try and attract more tourists. It’s part of the crown prince’s plan to diversify the country’s economy away from oil. Will it work? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

Read More »

Here’s What We’ve Lost in the Past Decade

2018-07-31

2018-07-31

The confidence and hubris of those directing the rest of us to race off the cliff while they watch from a safe distance is off the charts. The past decade of "recovery" and "growth" has actually been a decade of catastrophic losses for our society and nation. Here's a short list of what we've lost: 1. Functioning markets. Free markets discover price and assess risk.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-07-30

by Win Thin

2018-07-30

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP. BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.

Read More »

Here’s How Systems (and Nations) Fail

2018-07-29

2018-07-29

These embedded processes strip away autonomy, equating compliance with effectiveness even as the processes become increasingly counter-productive and wasteful. Would any sane person choose America's broken healthcare system over a cheaper, more effective alternative?

Read More »

When Long-Brewing Instability Finally Reaches Crisis

2018-07-28

2018-07-28

The doom-and-gloomers among us who have been predicting the unraveling of an inherently unstable financial system appear to have been disproved by the reflation of yet another credit-asset bubble. But inherently unstable / imbalanced systems can stumble onward for years or even decades, making fools of all who warn of an eventual reset.

Read More »

ABBA star, Bjorn Ulvaeus, on Mamma Mia and Brexit sadness | The Economist Podcast

2018-07-27

Bjorn Ulvaeus, one of the stars of ABBA, sits down with Anne McElvoy, head of Economist Radio, to talk about music, politics and what it is like to hear world-famous actors sing your world-famous songs. Chapter One: On “Mamma Mia Here We Go Again” 00:06 The Economist asks about what it is like to meet …

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-07-27

2018-07-27

Note: This will be a short update. We are shifting the timing of some of our reports. The monthly Global Asset Allocation update will now be published in the first week of the month, aiming for the first of each month. I’ll put out a full report next week. The Bi-Weekly Economic Review is shifting to a monthly update, published on the 15th of each month.

Read More »

Mapping global population and the future of the world | The Economist

2018-07-26

The world’s population has more than doubled since the 1970s. But a booming population is only part of the story—in some places populations are in decline. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2tGuZ9h Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2tGuZGj Check out The …

Read More »

The Top of GDP

2018-07-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-07-26

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming.

Read More »

Mid-Year Global Update

2018-07-25

2018-07-25

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

Read More »

Are wildfires becoming more deadly? | The Economist

2018-07-24

Wildfires have killed at least 74 people in Greece. In Sweden firefighters are tackling the biggest forest blazes in the country’s history. What causes wildfires and are they becoming more common? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Last year in America, around 71,000 fires burned through an area larger than that …

Read More »

The Imperial Naivete of the American Public

2018-07-24

2018-07-24

The nation's premier corporate profit engines / social media giants are the ideal platforms for undermining the U.S. via the sowing of disintegration. Whether it's stated or not, one source of the inchoate outrage triggered by Russian-sourced purchases of adverts on Facebook in 2016 (i.e. "meddling in our election") is the sense that the U.S. is sacrosanct due to our innate moral goodness and our Imperial Project.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-07-23

by Win Thin

2018-07-23

EM FX saw some violent swings last week, due in large part to some unhelpful official comments Friday. BRL and TRY were the best performers last week, while RUB and CLP were the worst. When all is said and done, however, we think Fed policy remains unaffected and so we remain negative on EM FX. Also, global trade tensions remain high after Trump threatened tariffs on all Chinese imports entering the US.

Read More »

Solutions without Historical Templates: Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains

2018-07-22

2018-07-22

Crypto-blockchain technologies are leveraging the potential of computers and the web for direct political-social innovation. We're accustomed to three basic templates for system-wide solutions or improvements: 1. an individual "builds a better mousetrap" and starts a company to exploit this competitive advantage;

Read More »

Tony Blair on Brexit’s second referendum | The Economist Podcast

2018-07-20

Tony Blair, Britain’s former Prime Minister, spoke to Anne McElvoy, The Economist’s head of radio, for The Economist asks podcast. Timecoded chapters listed below: Chapter One – Should there be a second Brexit referendum? 3:00 – What would be the route to a second referendum? 5:40 – Did Cameron get it wrong to hold a …

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2018-07-20

2018-07-20

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground. There were, as you’ll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the trade wars and the potential fallout. I would also note that at least some of the recent strength in the data is related to the tariffs.

Read More »

Are identity politics dangerous? | The Economist

2018-07-19